Highly concentrated speculative portfolio with major focus on NVIDIA and gold

Report created on Aug 12, 2025

Risk profile Info

7/7
Speculative
Less risk More risk

Diversification profile Info

1/5
Single-Focused
Less diversification More diversification

Positions

This portfolio is notably concentrated, with 50% invested in NVIDIA Corporation, 30% in iShares Gold Trust, and the remaining 20% in Vanguard S&P 500 ETF. This composition reflects a speculative approach, heavily reliant on the performance of a single stock and gold as a commodity. The diversification is minimal, with a significant tilt towards technology through NVIDIA and a considerable allocation in gold, aiming for a hedge against market volatility. The presence of the S&P 500 ETF provides some exposure to a broader market, although it's overshadowed by the portfolio's heavy focus on NVIDIA.

Growth Info

The historical performance showcases an exceptionally high Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 1,033.71%, which is extraordinary. However, this comes with a substantial risk, as indicated by the maximum drawdown of -65.90%. Such performance is largely driven by NVIDIA's stock, reflecting periods of significant tech sector growth. It's important to note that past performance, especially of such volatility, may not be sustainable or indicative of future results, and the days contributing most to returns highlight the portfolio's reliance on short-term gains.

Projection Info

Monte Carlo simulations indicate a concerning outlook, with all simulations resulting in a -100% annualized return, suggesting complete portfolio loss. While Monte Carlo analysis is valuable for understanding potential outcomes, it heavily relies on historical data, which may not always predict future scenarios accurately. This extreme result underscores the portfolio's speculative nature and high risk, emphasizing the need for reconsideration of its composition to mitigate potential losses.

Asset classes Info

  • Stocks
    70%
  • Other
    30%

The portfolio's asset allocation is split between 70% in stocks (primarily NVIDIA) and 30% in gold (iShares Gold Trust). This allocation reflects a speculative strategy, aiming to balance high-growth potential in technology with the traditional safety of gold. However, the heavy weighting towards a single stock significantly increases risk, while the gold investment suggests an attempt at hedging against market volatility. Diversifying across more asset classes could reduce risk and improve the portfolio's resilience to market fluctuations.

Sectors Info

  • Technology
    57%
  • Financials
    3%
  • Consumer Discretionary
    2%
  • Health Care
    2%
  • Telecommunications
    2%
  • Industrials
    2%
  • Consumer Staples
    1%
  • Energy
    1%

Sector allocation is heavily skewed towards technology, with 57% invested in NVIDIA, indicating a high dependency on the tech sector's performance. Other sectors like financial services, consumer cyclicals, healthcare, and others have minimal representation. This concentration in technology can lead to high volatility, especially during market downturns or sector-specific shocks. Broadening the sectoral exposure could help in stabilizing returns and reducing sector-specific risks.

Regions Info

  • North America
    70%

Geographic exposure is predominantly North American (70%), reflecting the portfolio's investment in NVIDIA and the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF. This concentration limits global diversification, potentially increasing vulnerability to regional economic fluctuations. Expanding the geographic allocation to include developed and emerging markets outside North America could enhance diversification and possibly tap into growth opportunities in other regions.

Market capitalization Info

  • Mega-cap
    59%
  • No data
    30%
  • Large-cap
    7%
  • Mid-cap
    4%

The portfolio's market capitalization exposure is heavily weighted towards mega-cap stocks (59%), mainly due to the investment in NVIDIA. While mega-cap stocks can offer stability and robust performance, the portfolio's significant concentration in one mega-cap stock increases its risk profile. Incorporating a broader mix of market capitalizations, including mid and small-cap stocks, could provide additional growth opportunities and risk diversification.

Risk vs. return

This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.

Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.

The current portfolio's risk-return profile suggests it is far from the Efficient Frontier, indicating potential for optimization. By reallocating assets to achieve a more diversified portfolio, it's possible to enhance returns for a given level of risk or reduce risk for a given level of return. This optimization process should consider a wider range of assets and sectors to move closer to an optimal risk-return balance.

Ongoing product costs Info

  • iShares Gold Trust 0.25%
  • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
  • Weighted costs total (per year) 0.08%

The portfolio's total expense ratio (TER) is remarkably low at 0.08%, benefiting long-term growth by minimizing costs. This efficiency is primarily due to the low-cost nature of the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF. While cost management is commendable, it's important to balance cost considerations with the need for diversification and risk management, especially in a speculative portfolio.

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