Momentum junkie portfolio praying last years hot streak never ends
Report created on May 8, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
2/5
Positions
-
SP Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
SPMO - US46138E3392 40.00% -
FM MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF
FMTM 40.00% -
SM VanEck Semiconductor ETF
SMH - US92189F6768 20.00%
This “portfolio” is basically three flavors of the same energy drink: two big momentum funds and a semiconductor rocket strapped on top. The diversification score of 2/5 feels generous; this is more theme park ride than balanced setup. With 80% in broad momentum and 20% in a niche chip fund, the structure screams “chase what worked lately” rather than “endure an actual full market cycle.” And because the youngest holding limits history to just over a year, the whole thing is built on a very short highlight reel. It’s a concentrated, overlapping bet that everything which has been winning recently will behave nicely forever.
Growth
Historically, the numbers look absurdly good: $1,000 turning into $1,710 in about 1.1 years with a 60.7% CAGR. That trashes both the US market and global market CAGRs, more than doubling them. But this is like judging a movie from the trailer: the entire record lives in a momentum-and-AI boom window. Max drawdown of -13.8% doesn’t look awful, but that’s during a party phase, not a full crisis. Also, 90% of gains came from just 16 days, meaning miss a handful of heaters and the magic evaporates. Past data here is basically a one-year sprint, not proof of long-term superpowers.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection tries to imagine 1,000 alternate futures from this short, sugar-high history. Median 15‑year outcome is $2,848 from $1,000, with a wide range from “meh” $947 to “lottery-but-maybe” $7,755. The average annualized return across simulations is 8.15%, a big haircut from the recent 60% rocket ride. Monte Carlo is like remixing yesterday’s weather 1,000 times, so with just 1.1 years of data, it’s guessing using very little real seasoning. The message is simple: this portfolio can crush it in some paths and faceplant in others, and the backtest isn’t nearly long enough to separate skill from fluke.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
Asset class “diversification” is easy to summarize: 100% stocks, 0% everything else. There’s no cushioning from bonds, cash, or anything that isn’t directly tied to equity markets. That’s like building a house entirely out of glass because the sun looks nice today. In good times, pure-equity momentum can look like genius. In bad times, it all falls together in a very synchronized way. With only a year of history, the portfolio hasn’t even been stress-tested by a serious storm, so the all-stock decision hasn’t had to prove itself under real pressure yet. Right now, it’s just riding the updraft.
Sectors
- Technology 50%
- Industrials 21%
- Telecommunications 5%
- Basic Materials 5%
- Consumer Discretionary 4%
- Consumer Staples 4%
- Energy 4%
- Health Care 3%
- Financials 2%
- Utilities 1%
Sector exposure screams tech worship: 50% in technology plus a 20% semiconductor ETF that is tech by another name, even if the label doesn’t show in this breakdown. The rest of the sectors are basically background characters held in single digits. Calling this diversified by sector is like calling a burger “balanced” because there’s lettuce on it. If the growth and chip narrative ever cools off, this portfolio doesn’t have many other engines to lean on. The tiny allocations to things like utilities and health care are too small to matter when the main act stumbles, especially in a downturn that targets high-flyers.
Regions
- North America 97%
- Asia Developed 2%
- Europe Developed 1%
Geography-wise, it’s basically an American echo chamber: 97% North America, with a token gesture to Asia and Europe that barely registers. It’s “USA or bust” with a side salad of foreign exposure just big enough to show up on a chart. That kind of home bias works amazingly when the US leads, as it has recently, but it’s still one bet: the domestic winners keep winning. With only a one-year window, this setup hasn’t had to live through long stretches where other regions quietly outperform. For now, the portfolio’s worldview is that everything important happens in North America, preferably on the Nasdaq.
Market capitalization
- Large-cap 35%
- Mid-cap 29%
- Mega-cap 26%
- Small-cap 9%
Market cap exposure leans hard into the big kids: mega-cap and large-cap together are 61%, with mid-caps at 29% and a token 9% in small-caps. So this is not a scrappy underdog story; it’s piling into the established momentum darlings already dominating headlines. That’s fine when giants keep compounding, but it also means the portfolio is riding the same names everyone else is crowding into. Small-caps are too tiny here to meaningfully change behavior. With only 1.1 years observed, this tilt looks great now because big winners have been big names, but that could just be a lucky alignment with a short-lived market mood.
True holdings
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NV NVIDIA Corporation 6.80%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 4.74%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 4.02%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc 2.43%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 2.17%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
LR Lam Research Corp 2.16%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
TS Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing 2.03%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 1.72%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
JN Johnson & Johnson 1.72%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
TW Twilio Inc 1.68%
Part of fund(s):- MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF
- Top 10 total 29.46%
Look-through holdings show the real punchline: huge overlaps in the same tech and chip celebrities. NVIDIA, Broadcom, Micron, AMD, Alphabet twice, TSMC, Lam Research — it’s like the same playlist on repeat across multiple ETFs. Only about half the portfolio is even visible via top-10s, so hidden overlap is likely worse. That means what looks like three funds is functionally a cluster of the same bets stacked on top of each other. The risk isn’t just “owning momentum” — it’s being massively tied to a small crew of high-octane names, so any one bad earnings season can echo through multiple layers simultaneously.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
Factor exposure is basically a personality test that came back “absolute momentum addict.” Momentum is high at 75%, while size is very low at 12%, meaning the portfolio is heavily tilted toward big, recent winners. Value is low and yield is low, so there’s almost no bargain-hunting or income-seeking muscle here. That’s like flooring the accelerator in a sports car and deliberately removing the handbrake and airbags. In a strong trend, this setup flies; in sharp reversals, it tends to get whiplashed. With such a short data window, it hasn’t really been forced to live through a full momentum crash — just the fun part.
Risk contribution
-
Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
Weight: 40.00% 36.6% -
MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF
Weight: 40.00% 34.4% -
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
Weight: 20.00% 29.0%
Risk contribution makes it clear who’s stirring the pot. The 20% semiconductor ETF is doing 29% of the risk work, punching well above its weight with a risk/weight of 1.45. The two momentum funds are big too, but at least their risk lines up more closely with their size. So the smallest weight is actually the loudest troublemaker in terms of volatility. This is classic “side bet that’s not really a side bet.” All three funds together make up 100% of risk, which is expected, but within that, the chip sleeve is the wild child the overall portfolio volatility is quietly hostage to.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the efficient frontier chart, the portfolio sits 1.07 percentage points below the best possible risk/return combo using the same ingredients. Translation: even if nothing new is added, just reshuffling these three ETFs could deliver better bang for the same volatility. The optimal portfolio hits a Sharpe ratio of 2.29 versus the current 1.94, with a juicier expected return at higher risk. Meanwhile, the minimum variance blend still has a Sharpe not far below the current one but with lower risk. So this isn’t just aggressive; it’s an aggressive configuration that doesn’t fully earn its drama, even by its own holdings’ standards.
Dividends
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.20%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.70%
- MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF 0.20%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.40%
The total dividend yield is about 0.40%, which barely qualifies as a consolation prize. With yields that low, the portfolio clearly isn’t pretending to be an income machine; it’s all about price movement. Dividends here are more like pocket change than a serious return driver. That’s fine if the goal is pure growth, but when momentum cools or goes sideways, there’s not much of a paycheck to soften the boredom. Over just 1.1 years, dividends haven’t mattered at all — the story has been pure capital gains — but over longer horizons, a yield this thin leaves the whole outcome at the mercy of market mood.
Ongoing product costs
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.35%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.12%
Costs are the one area where this portfolio doesn’t totally misbehave. A total TER of 0.12% is pleasantly low, and even the priciest piece — the 0.35% semiconductor ETF — isn’t outrageous for a spicy niche sleeve. It’s like discovering the nightclub with expensive cocktails at least has no cover charge. Still, paying up a bit for the chip fund just amplifies the bet on a single volatile theme. With such a concentrated setup, every extra basis point is paying to be more exposed to the same narrow story. Cheap overall, yes — but frugal doesn’t fix structural concentration.
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