A balanced US heavy portfolio with duplicate total market holdings and low costs

Report created on Dec 10, 2025

Risk profile Info

4/7
Balanced
Less risk More risk

Diversification profile Info

3/5
Moderately Diversified
Less diversification More diversification

Positions

Observation: The portfolio is concentrated in three funds with 80% allocated to total stock market vehicles split evenly between an ETF and an Admiral fund and 20% in a total bond market fund. Education: Holding two vehicles that track essentially the same broad equity exposure creates functional overlap; this matters because overlap increases tracking redundancy without adding new diversification. Recommendation: Consolidate equity exposure into a single fund or vehicle to simplify management and reduce redundancy then maintain the target stock to bond split with clear rebalancing rules to preserve intended risk.

Growth Info

Observation: Historical metrics show a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.60% and a maximum drawdown of -30.20% with 36 days accounting for 90% of returns. Education: CAGR measures average annual growth like the steady speed of a car over a long trip while max drawdown shows the worst peak-to-trough loss experienced. The 36 days metric signals returns are concentrated in a few large positive days which is common in equity markets. Recommendation: Expect volatility and occasional steep declines; use disciplined rebalancing and avoid market-timing so short term swings don’t derail long-term objectives.

Projection Info

Observation: A Monte Carlo simulation using 1,000 runs produced a median end value of roughly 297.5% and a 5th percentile outcome near 54.8% with an annualized simulated return of 11.37%. Education: Monte Carlo simulation is a scenario tool that runs many randomized paths based on historical patterns to show a range of possible outcomes, not a prediction. It helps visualize upside and downside possibilities and tail risks. Recommendation: Use these simulations for planning and stress testing—set realistic goal ranges and contingency plans—but remember they rely on historical inputs and assumptions that may not hold in the future.

Asset classes Info

  • Stocks
    80%
  • Bonds
    20%
  • Cash
    1%

Observation: Asset class split is roughly 80% stocks 20% bonds with about 1% cash, a profile tilted toward equities relative to classic balanced blends. Education: Stocks generally drive long-term growth while bonds reduce volatility and provide income; the chosen mix determines expected return and drawdown characteristics. Recommendation: If the intent is balanced risk, consider whether the current equity tilt matches the target risk profile and time horizon; if not, adjust allocations or add asset classes that behave differently from equities to improve true diversification.

Sectors Info

  • Technology
    26%
  • Financials
    11%
  • Health Care
    8%
  • Telecommunications
    8%
  • Industrials
    7%
  • Consumer Discretionary
    4%
  • Consumer Discretionary
    4%
  • Consumer Staples
    4%
  • Energy
    2%
  • Real Estate
    2%
  • Utilities
    2%
  • Basic Materials
    2%

Observation: Sector exposure shows a notable technology tilt at approximately 26% followed by financials and healthcare around 11% and 8% respectively. Education: Sector tilts influence sensitivity to economic cycles and policy changes—heavy technology exposure can raise growth potential and volatility, while other sectors often behave differently during rate or commodity shifts. Recommendation: Decide if the sector concentration is intentional; if not, broaden exposure across other sectors or use allocation controls to reduce single-sector swings while preserving long-term growth objectives.

Regions Info

  • North America
    80%
  • No data
    20%

Observation: Geographic exposure is heavily weighted to North America at 80% with 20% classified as unknown and little to no explicit exposure to other developed or emerging regions. Education: Geographic concentration introduces home-country bias which can increase correlation with local economic and political events; global diversification can smooth returns across different economic cycles. Recommendation: Evaluate whether the domestic skew aligns with return expectations and risk tolerance; consider increasing geographic diversification if reducing single-country risk is a priority.

Market capitalization Info

  • Mega-cap
    33%
  • Large-cap
    24%
  • Mid-cap
    15%
  • Small-cap
    5%
  • Micro-cap
    2%

Observation: Market-cap breakdown is skewed toward large caps with Mega at 33% and Big at 24% while small and micro caps are a small fraction. Education: Large-cap companies often provide stability and liquidity while smaller caps historically offer higher growth potential but come with greater volatility and liquidity risk. Recommendation: If seeking incremental return and accepting more volatility, introduce a modest allocation to smaller-cap exposures; otherwise maintain large-cap focus for lower relative volatility and ease of trading.

Redundant positions Info

  • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
    Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares
    High correlation

Observation: The two total stock market funds are highly correlated creating a nearly redundant equity allocation while the bond fund behaves as the primary diversifier. Education: Correlation measures how assets move together; highly correlated assets limit diversification benefits because they tend to rise and fall in sync, especially during stress periods. Recommendation: Remove or consolidate overlapping holdings so that each position contributes distinct risk and return characteristics, improving portfolio efficiency and reducing needless complexity.

Risk vs. return

This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.

Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.

Observation: Optimization advice highlights removing overlapping assets before running any mean-variance optimization and notes efficiency is based only on current assets and reallocations among them. Education: The Efficient Frontier is a concept that maps the best possible risk-return tradeoffs for a given set of assets; it finds combinations that offer the highest expected return for each risk level but depends on historical estimates and the chosen asset set. Recommendation: First consolidate duplicate holdings, then run optimization among distinct assets while treating outputs as guidance not guarantees, and consider practical constraints like taxes and liquidity.

Dividends Info

  • Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Admiral Shares 3.20%
  • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.10%
  • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares 1.10%
  • Weighted yield (per year) 1.52%

Observation: The portfolio yield is about 1.52% driven by a bond yield near 3.20% and equity yields around 1.10% for the stock holdings. Education: Dividends and coupons contribute to total return and can offer income especially during low-growth periods, but yield level is modest relative to total return expectations for growth-oriented allocations. Recommendation: If income generation is a goal, tilt the allocation or include income-focused strategies; if long-term growth is primary, prioritize low-cost growth instruments and let dividends be a secondary benefit.

Ongoing product costs Info

  • Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Admiral Shares 0.04%
  • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
  • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares 0.04%
  • Weighted costs total (per year) 0.04%

Observation: Expense ratios are very low with individual fund fees around 0.03–0.04% and an overall total expense ratio near 0.04%. Education: TER (Total Expense Ratio) shows how much is paid annually for fund management—think of it as the ongoing maintenance cost of the portfolio; small differences compound significantly over decades. Recommendation: Maintain low-cost core holdings and be mindful of fee increases when switching products; low costs are a clear positive and align with best practices for improving long-term returns.

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