A cautious portfolio with a strong tilt towards gold and a slice of S&P 500 exposure

Report created on Oct 16, 2025

Risk profile Info

3/7
Cautious
Less risk More risk

Diversification profile Info

2/5
Low Diversity
Less diversification More diversification

Positions

This portfolio is distinctly characterized by its heavy allocation towards gold, represented by the iShares® Gold Trust Micro, making up two-thirds of the portfolio. The remaining third is invested in the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, indicating exposure to a broad range of U.S. equities. This composition suggests a conservative approach, leaning heavily on gold as a hedge against market volatility and inflation, while still maintaining a foothold in the stock market for growth potential. The low diversity, with a significant skew towards a single commodity, is noteworthy.

Growth Info

Historically, the portfolio has demonstrated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 18.63%, with a maximum drawdown of -18.11%. These figures suggest a relatively high return for a portfolio classified as cautious, likely buoyed by the performance of gold and the S&P 500 in recent years. However, it's important to recognize that past performance is not always indicative of future results, especially given the portfolio's low diversification.

Projection Info

Monte Carlo simulations, which project potential outcomes using historical data, indicate a wide range of possible future performances for this portfolio. With all simulations showing positive returns and a median projected growth of 930.8%, the analysis suggests optimism. Nonetheless, it's critical to understand that these projections are speculative and depend heavily on past market conditions repeating themselves.

Asset classes Info

  • Stocks
    33%

The portfolio's asset allocation leans significantly towards commodities (gold) and stocks, with a complete absence of bonds, real estate, or other asset classes. This narrow focus limits diversification and may expose the portfolio to higher volatility, especially given the contrasting behaviors of gold and equities in different market conditions. Diversifying across more asset classes could provide a smoother investment experience over time.

Sectors Info

  • Technology
    12%
  • Financials
    4%
  • Consumer Discretionary
    4%
  • Telecommunications
    3%
  • Health Care
    3%
  • Industrials
    3%
  • Consumer Staples
    2%
  • Energy
    1%
  • Utilities
    1%
  • Real Estate
    1%
  • Basic Materials
    1%

Within the equity component, there's a broad spread across sectors, with technology taking the lead. This is consistent with the S&P 500's composition but means the portfolio's performance is somewhat tied to the fortunes of the tech industry, alongside its heavy reliance on gold. The minimal sectoral diversification within the stock allocation could be a point of concern during tech downturns or gold price fluctuations.

Regions Info

  • North America
    33%

The geographic exposure is heavily skewed towards North America, with no direct investment in international or emerging markets. This concentration risk could limit growth potential and resilience against regional economic downturns. Expanding geographic diversity could mitigate some risk and tap into growth opportunities elsewhere.

Market capitalization Info

  • Mega-cap
    16%
  • Large-cap
    11%
  • Mid-cap
    6%

The market capitalization exposure leans towards larger companies, with a mix of mega, big, and medium cap stocks. This bias towards larger firms, common in S&P 500 index funds, may offer stability but can also limit exposure to the potentially higher growth rates of smaller companies. Considering some allocation towards small or mid-cap stocks could enhance growth prospects and diversification.

Risk vs. return

This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.

Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.

Considering the Efficient Frontier, this portfolio's heavy tilt towards gold might not offer the best risk-return ratio. While gold can be a safe haven, its long-term growth potential is often lower than equities. Balancing the allocation more evenly between gold and a diversified set of equities, possibly including international exposure, could enhance the portfolio's efficiency.

Dividends Info

  • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.20%
  • Weighted yield (per year) 0.40%

The portfolio's dividend yield, primarily from the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, contributes modestly to total returns. While the yield is low, it's a reflection of the significant allocation to gold, which does not generate income. For investors seeking income, increasing exposure to dividend-paying equities or other income-generating assets could be beneficial.

Ongoing product costs Info

  • iShares® Gold Trust Micro 0.09%
  • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
  • Weighted costs total (per year) 0.07%

The total expense ratio (TER) of 0.07% is impressively low, supporting better long-term performance by minimizing the drag on returns due to fees. This cost efficiency is a strong aspect of the portfolio, particularly important for a cautious strategy where keeping expenses minimal is key to preserving capital.

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