Efficient US focused equity portfolio with moderate bitcoin tilt and impressively low ongoing costs
Report created on Apr 4, 2026Risk profile
- Secure Speculative
The risk profile, derived from past market volatility, reflects the level of risk the portfolio is exposed to. This assessment helps align your investments with your financial goals and comfort with market fluctuations.
Diversification profile
- Focused Diversified
The diversification assessment evaluates the spread of investments across asset classes, regions, and sectors. This ensures a balanced mix, reducing risk and maximizing returns by not concentrating in any single area.
Positions
-
VO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO - US9229083632 45.00% -
VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 30.00% -
AV Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 10.00% -
FB Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust
FBTC - US3159481098 10.00% -
NT WisdomTree 90/60 US Balanced
NTSX - US97717Y7904 5.00%
This portfolio is heavily tilted to US stocks, with about three quarters in broad US equity index funds and another slice in a US small‑cap value fund. Around a tenth sits in a bitcoin trust and a small piece is in a 90/60 balanced ETF that mixes stocks and bonds using leverage. Structurally, it’s simple and mostly equity-driven, with one higher-octane crypto sleeve. That means returns will largely follow the US stock market with an added kicker from bitcoin’s big swings. For a “balanced” label, it’s actually quite growth-oriented, so expectations should be set for stock-like ups and downs rather than a classic stock‑bond mix.
Growth
Over the recent period, $1,000 grew to about $1,404, giving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.56%. CAGR is like the average speed of a road trip, smoothing out all the bumps. This slightly lagged both the US and global market benchmarks, but only by less than 1% per year, which is very tight tracking. The max drawdown, a drop of about -20%, was a bit deeper than the benchmarks, reflecting the bitcoin slice and equity focus. The recovery in roughly three months is encouraging. Still, this is a short and unusually strong market window; past performance over these two years doesn’t guarantee the same pattern in future cycles.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection uses historical return and volatility data to simulate thousands of possible 15‑year futures. Think of it as rolling the dice 1,000 times based on how the portfolio has behaved, then seeing the range of outcomes. The median result, about $2,918 from $1,000, implies an annual return of 8.56% across simulations, with a wide but reasonable band from roughly $945 to $8,619. This spread shows how uncertain long-term investing is, especially with a volatile asset like bitcoin in the mix. These are not promises, just probability-based scenarios; future markets, regulations, and macro shocks can easily push outcomes outside these ranges.
Asset classes
- Stocks 90%
- Crypto 10%
Asset-class wise, around 90% is in stocks and 10% in crypto, with bonds only present indirectly through the 90/60 balanced ETF. That makes this more of a growth or aggressive-balanced setup than a classic 60/40 mix. Stocks are the primary engine for long-term growth, but they also deliver bigger short-term swings. Bitcoin adds further volatility and can dominate short‑term moves despite being a minority allocation. The relatively small bond exposure means you shouldn’t expect much cushioning in deeper equity bear markets. For someone wanting equity-like growth with a speculative twist and only limited downside dampening, this overall mix is coherent.
Sectors
- Technology 27%
- Financials 12%
- Consumer Discretionary 10%
- Industrials 9%
- Telecommunications 9%
- Health Care 8%
- Energy 5%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Basic Materials 2%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 2%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Sector-wise, the portfolio leans strongly toward technology at 27%, with healthy allocations to financials, consumer discretionary, industrials, telecom, and healthcare. Energy, staples, utilities, materials, and real estate are smaller but still present. This pattern is very similar to broad US market indices, which is a positive sign for diversification: it avoids making big sector bets. The tech tilt does mean sensitivity to interest-rate expectations and innovation cycles; when rates spike or sentiment turns against growth, volatility can increase. Still, having exposure across all major sectors helps smooth the ride versus a single-sector theme fund, and aligns closely with broad market composition.
Regions
- North America 89%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Geographically, the portfolio is about 89% North America, with very little exposure to the rest of the world. That’s a clear home-country preference, common among US investors, and it has worked well in the last decade as US markets outperformed many others. But it does mean economic and political risk is concentrated in one region and currency. If non-US markets have a long period of outperformance, this setup might miss some diversification benefits. On the positive side, keeping things US-centric simplifies tax considerations and currency risk. It’s a deliberate tilt toward the US engine rather than a fully global equity allocation.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 35%
- Large-cap 27%
- Mid-cap 15%
- Small-cap 8%
- Micro-cap 5%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
By market cap, the portfolio mixes 35% mega-cap and 27% large-cap with meaningful exposure to mid, small, and even micro caps. This is closer to a full market spread than a pure mega-cap index. The Avantis US Small Cap Value ETF especially boosts the smaller-cap segment. Large and mega caps tend to be more stable and dominate headlines, while smaller caps can be more volatile but sometimes offer higher long-term growth potential. This structure balances stability from the giants with some extra kick from smaller names. It’s a well-constructed size profile that broadly resembles the total US market with a modest small-cap tilt.
True holdings
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NV NVIDIA Corporation 5.54%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- WisdomTree 90/60 US Balanced
-
AA Apple Inc 5.09%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- WisdomTree 90/60 US Balanced
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 3.81%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- WisdomTree 90/60 US Balanced
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 2.66%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- WisdomTree 90/60 US Balanced
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 2.52%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- WisdomTree 90/60 US Balanced
-
AV Broadcom Inc 1.97%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- WisdomTree 90/60 US Balanced
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 1.86%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- WisdomTree 90/60 US Balanced
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 1.76%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
TS Tesla Inc 1.48%
Part of fund(s):- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- WisdomTree 90/60 US Balanced
-
BR Berkshire Hathaway Inc 1.21%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- WisdomTree 90/60 US Balanced
- Top 10 total 27.89%
Looking through the ETFs, the largest underlying exposures are the familiar US mega caps: Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Broadcom, Meta, Tesla, and Berkshire. Several appear in multiple funds, so their combined weights add up even though you never bought them directly. That’s hidden concentration: many broad US funds end up owning the same giants. This isn’t inherently bad; these companies have driven a lot of recent returns. But it does mean that when mega-cap tech-heavy names zig or zag together, the whole portfolio feels it. Since we only see ETF top-10 holdings, the true overlap is likely higher than reported.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
Factor exposure is very close to neutral across value, size, momentum, quality, yield, and low volatility, with all readings hovering near 50%. Factors are like characteristics of stocks — for example, value means cheaper companies, momentum means recent winners, low vol means steadier names. A neutral profile implies the portfolio behaves much like the broad market without strong bets on any single factor. That’s actually a strength if the goal is simple market-like exposure: you’re not relying on one style winning. In practice, the ride should feel similar to a broad US index, with performance mostly driven by general market direction and bitcoin’s added noise.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
Weight: 45.00% 39.1% -
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 30.00% 27.3% -
Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust
Weight: 10.00% 19.3% -
Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 10.00% 10.2% -
WisdomTree 90/60 US Balanced
Weight: 5.00% 4.1%
Risk contribution shows how much each position drives the portfolio’s overall ups and downs, which can differ from its weight. The S&P 500 and Total Market ETFs together are about 75% of the weight and roughly two-thirds of the risk, which is quite proportional. Bitcoin is the standout: at 10% weight it contributes over 19% of total risk, almost double its share. The small-cap value ETF and 90/60 fund contribute near or slightly below their weights. This means day-to-day swings will often be about bitcoin and broad US stocks. If that risk balance ever feels off, adjusting position sizes is the main lever, not adding new products.
Redundant positions
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High correlationVanguard S&P 500 ETFVanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Correlation measures how often assets move together. Here, the S&P 500 ETF and the Total Stock Market ETF are almost perfectly correlated — they behave nearly identically because they track very similar slices of the US market. That’s not a problem, but it does mean holding both doesn’t add much extra diversification versus owning only one of them. Most of the portfolio’s diversification instead comes from the small-cap value ETF, the 90/60 balanced fund, and especially bitcoin, which often marches to its own drum. In a big US equity sell-off, though, the two large core funds will likely move down in tandem.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The risk–return optimization chart shows your current portfolio with a Sharpe ratio of 0.81, close to the maximum Sharpe of 1.03 and minimum-variance Sharpe of 0.99 using just these holdings. The Sharpe ratio compares return to volatility after accounting for a risk-free rate, like judging cars by speed per unit of fuel used. Being on or very near the efficient frontier means that, for this mix of funds, the allocation is already using risk efficiently. Small tweaks could theoretically reduce risk a bit for similar return, but we’re talking about fine-tuning rather than a major overhaul. Structurally, the portfolio is in a solid spot.
Dividends
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.40%
- WisdomTree 90/60 US Balanced 1.20%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.20%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.20%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.10%
The overall dividend yield sits around 1.10%, with individual funds yielding roughly 1.2% and the small-cap value fund a bit higher at 1.4%. That’s in line with broad US equity yields today, which are relatively modest compared with history. Dividends are still a meaningful part of total return, especially when reinvested, but this portfolio is clearly tuned for capital growth rather than income. Investors looking for regular cash flow would probably need to plan separate withdrawal rules rather than relying purely on dividends. As a growth-oriented setup, the current yield is reasonable and consistent with its strong equity bias and mild value tilt.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust 0.25%
- WisdomTree 90/60 US Balanced 0.20%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.08%
The total expense ratio (TER) of about 0.08% is impressively low, especially given the inclusion of a specialized small-cap value ETF and a bitcoin trust at 0.25% each. TER is the annual fee baked into the fund, like a small membership charge taken automatically. Most of the allocation sits in ultra-low-cost Vanguard index ETFs at 0.03%, which keeps the blended cost down. Over decades, the difference between 0.08% and, say, 0.5% compounds into real money, so this is a clear strength. The cost structure strongly supports long-term performance, letting market returns work for you rather than being eaten up by fees.
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