Concentrated US large cap growth portfolio with strong past returns and defensive low volatility tilt
Report created on May 9, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
2/5
Positions
-
FX Fidelity 500 Index Fund
FXAIX - US3159117502 60.00% -
SP Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
SPMO - US46138E3392 20.00% -
XL Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR® Fund
XLP - US81369Y3080 20.00%
This portfolio is built from just three holdings, all tracking segments of the US stock market. About 60% sits in a broad S&P 500 index fund, giving wide exposure to major US companies. Another 20% targets S&P 500 stocks with strong price momentum, and the final 20% focuses specifically on consumer staples companies. With 100% in equities and everything tied to one country, the structure is intentionally growth-oriented but not broadly diversified. The heavy core index position provides a solid anchor, while the two satellite funds tilt the mix toward specific styles. This creates a “core plus satellites” design that’s simple, concentrated, and easy to understand.
Growth
From 2016 to 2026, $1,000 in this portfolio grew to about $4,173, implying a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.41%. CAGR is the “steady speed” your money would have needed each year to go from start to finish. That’s almost identical to the US market benchmark at 17.51% and ahead of the global market at 14.56%. The maximum drawdown, or worst peak‑to‑trough fall, was about -31.65%, slightly milder than both benchmarks. This mix has delivered strong returns with equity‑like ups and downs, closely tracking the US market while modestly improving downside protection during the sharp 2020 decline.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection uses the portfolio’s historical behavior to simulate many possible futures. Think of it as running 1,000 alternate timelines to see a range of outcomes rather than betting on one number. Over 15 years, the median path turns $1,000 into about $2,705, with a wide “likely” band between roughly $1,822 and $4,185. Extreme simulations range from about $949 to $7,441, and about three‑quarters of paths end positive. The average simulated annual return is 7.98%. These results show how uncertain long‑term equity outcomes can be: even with a positive tilt, the path can vary a lot. As always, simulations rely on past patterns and can’t predict future markets.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of this portfolio sits in stocks, with no bonds, cash substitutes, or alternative assets in the mix. That creates a very clear risk/return profile: strong participation in equity growth, combined with full exposure to stock market volatility. Compared with more mixed asset allocations, this is a more concentrated bet on business earnings and valuations rather than interest rates or bond yields. The upside is straightforward participation when equities do well and no dilution from lower‑return assets. The trade‑off is that there’s no built‑in ballast from bonds or cash in sharp equity downturns, so the value can swing more sharply than a multi‑asset blend.
Sectors
- Technology 30%
- Consumer Staples 24%
- Financials 9%
- Telecommunications 8%
- Industrials 8%
- Health Care 7%
- Consumer Discretionary 6%
- Energy 3%
- Utilities 2%
- Basic Materials 1%
- Real Estate 1%
Sector-wise, the portfolio leans heavily into technology at 30% and consumer staples at 24%, with smaller slices across financials, telecom, industrials, health care, consumer discretionary, and others. Compared with a typical broad US index, the standout tilt is toward consumer staples, which are often considered more defensive because people still buy everyday goods in most economic environments. That can dampen volatility when markets are stressed, even though it can lag in very strong growth cycles. Tech-heavy exposure can drive returns in innovation‑led rallies but also adds sensitivity to interest rates and valuation swings. This mix blends an aggressive growth engine with a sizable defensive ballast.
Regions
- North America 100%
Geographically, the portfolio is 100% in North America, specifically the US. That means all the companies are listed in one market and tied to one currency, the dollar. Many of these firms earn revenue globally, but from a market and currency standpoint, the exposure is single‑country. Compared with global benchmarks that spread across many regions, this is a deliberate concentration in the US. Over the last decade, that has coincidentally been a strong place to be, which partly explains the impressive historical returns. The flip side is that performance is tightly linked to US economic, policy, and market conditions, with no offset from other regions during US‑specific downturns.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 40%
- Large-cap 37%
- Mid-cap 22%
- Small-cap 1%
By market capitalization, the portfolio is dominated by large businesses: roughly 40% mega‑caps, 37% large‑caps, 22% mid‑caps, and only 1% small‑caps. Mega‑ and large‑cap companies tend to be more established, with deeper liquidity and more analyst coverage, which can lead to somewhat smoother trading and narrower bid‑ask spreads. The relatively small slice in smaller firms means there’s limited exposure to the higher‑risk, sometimes higher‑reward dynamics of small‑caps. This cap profile is very similar to broad US indices, which are also top‑heavy. It supports stability and scalability but doesn’t strongly tap into the size factor that comes from owning more small companies.
True holdings
-
WM Walmart Inc. Common Stock 2.31%
Part of fund(s):- Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR® Fund
-
CO Costco Wholesale Corp 1.87%
Part of fund(s):- Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR® Fund
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 1.78%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 1.58%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
PG Procter & Gamble Company 1.46%
Part of fund(s):- Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR® Fund
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 1.43%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
KO The Coca-Cola Company 1.27%
Part of fund(s):- Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR® Fund
-
PM Philip Morris International Inc 1.11%
Part of fund(s):- Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR® Fund
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 1.08%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
MD Mondelez International Inc 0.95%
Part of fund(s):- Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR® Fund
- Top 10 total 14.84%
Looking through the top holdings of the ETFs, several big names appear, including Walmart, Costco, NVIDIA, Broadcom, and Procter & Gamble. These positions collectively represent a noticeable chunk of the portfolio, even though they’re only seen via funds. Because multiple funds can hold the same stock, overlap can create hidden concentration—for example, a company like NVIDIA might show up in both the core index and the momentum ETF. Here, the staples ETF clearly boosts exposure to brands like Walmart, Costco, and Coca‑Cola. It’s worth noting the look‑through only covers about 22% of the portfolio, so real overlap is likely higher than what the visible top‑10 data suggests.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
Factor exposure shows a mild tilt toward low volatility at 61% and a mild lean away from yield at 37%, with value, momentum, and quality all roughly neutral. Factors are like personality traits of the portfolio—characteristics that academic research links to long‑term return patterns. A higher low‑volatility score suggests the mix leans a bit toward stocks that historically move less than the market, which can help smooth the ride during turbulent periods. The low yield exposure fits with an equity portfolio tilted more toward price appreciation than high dividends. With most factors close to neutral, the portfolio behaves much like the broad market, with just a slight defensive flavor.
Risk contribution
-
Fidelity 500 Index Fund
Weight: 60.00% 64.3% -
Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
Weight: 20.00% 22.5% -
Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR® Fund
Weight: 20.00% 13.2%
Risk contribution looks at how much each holding drives the portfolio’s overall ups and downs, which isn’t always the same as its weight. Here, the core S&P 500 fund is 60% of the assets but contributes about 64% of total risk, so its influence is slightly larger than its size. The momentum ETF at 20% weight adds around 22.5% of risk, showing it’s a bit punchier than a simple weight split suggests. In contrast, the consumer staples ETF is 20% of assets but only 13.2% of risk, reflecting its more defensive behavior. This pattern highlights how sector and style choices can make some holdings “louder” or “quieter” in the overall mix.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the risk‑return chart, the current portfolio sits on or very near the efficient frontier using these three holdings. The efficient frontier is the curve showing the best possible tradeoff between risk (volatility) and return, given only these ingredients but different weightings. The current Sharpe ratio—0.75, which measures return per unit of risk—is solid, though the mathematically optimal mix among these same funds could reach a Sharpe of 1.01 at higher risk and return. The minimum‑variance blend would lower risk but also cut expected returns. Being on the frontier means, for this specific set of holdings, the weights already use them in a broadly efficient way.
Dividends
- Fidelity 500 Index Fund 1.10%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.70%
- Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR® Fund 2.60%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.32%
The portfolio’s overall dividend yield is about 1.32%, combining a modest 1.10% from the core index, a lower 0.70% from the momentum ETF, and a more generous 2.60% from the consumer staples ETF. Dividend yield is the annual cash payout as a percentage of price, like rent from owning shares. This level is relatively modest for an equity portfolio, signaling that the return profile is more focused on price growth than cash income. The consumer staples slice boosts the yield somewhat, reflecting the more mature, cash‑generative nature of many everyday‑goods companies. Over time, even a moderate yield can meaningfully add to total return when reinvested.
Ongoing product costs
- Fidelity 500 Index Fund 0.02%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
- Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR® Fund 0.09%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.06%
Costs are impressively low, with a blended total expense ratio (TER) of about 0.06% per year. TER is the ongoing annual fee charged by funds, taken out of returns before they reach the investor. For context, this level is well below many actively managed funds and in line with competitive index products. Low costs matter because they compound over time: every 0.1% saved each year is money that stays invested and can earn returns. In this case, fees are unlikely to be a major drag on long‑term performance. This cost structure is a real strength of the portfolio and aligns well with best practices in low‑cost indexing.
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