Highly concentrated growth focused portfolio with strong technology tilt and historically elevated returns
Report created on May 5, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
2/5
Positions
-
QQ Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
QQQM - US46138G6492 25.00% -
SM VanEck Semiconductor ETF
SMH - US92189F6768 25.00% -
SP Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
SPMO - US46138E3392 25.00% -
VG Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares
VGT - US92204A7028 25.00%
This portfolio is built from four equity ETFs, each at 25%, all focused on growth-heavy parts of the stock market. There is no allocation to bonds, cash, or other asset classes, so the entire portfolio moves with stock markets, especially growth and tech-related areas. A 100% stock mix tends to amplify both gains and losses compared with more mixed portfolios. Structurally, this is a very focused approach rather than a broad “own everything” style. That kind of concentration can be appealing for capturing specific themes, but it also means that portfolio ups and downs will be tightly linked to how these particular segments of the market perform over time.
Growth
Over the period from late 2020 to May 2026, $1,000 in this portfolio grew to about $3,331. That translates to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.3%, well ahead of both the US and global market benchmarks. CAGR is like your average speed over a long road trip, smoothing out bumps along the way. The flip side is a max drawdown of about -34%, meaning the portfolio once fell by a third from peak to trough and took over a year to recover. This shows strong upside historically, but with noticeably sharper swings than broad markets.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection uses many simulated paths based on historical patterns to estimate a range of future outcomes. Think of it as running 1,000 alternate futures, each with random sequences of good and bad years drawn from the past. The median 15‑year outcome grows $1,000 to around $2,714, with a wide possible range from roughly flat to more than sevenfold. The average annualized return across simulations is about 8.05%, lower than the recent historical CAGR, which is common when models build in variability. These projections are not predictions; they just show how sensitive outcomes can be for a volatile, concentrated equity portfolio.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of the portfolio sits in stocks, with 0% in bonds, real estate, or cash-like assets. That makes it straightforward to understand but also exposes it entirely to equity market risk. Asset classes tend to respond differently to economic news; for example, high-quality bonds often behave differently from stocks during stress. Because this mix is 100% stocks, it does not have that kind of built-in cushion. Compared with typical broad market portfolios that blend in some defensive assets, this approach leans heavily into growth potential while accepting that downturns may be deeper and more abrupt.
Sectors
- Technology 75%
- Telecommunications 7%
- Industrials 4%
- Consumer Discretionary 3%
- Consumer Staples 3%
- Health Care 3%
- Financials 2%
- Energy 1%
- Basic Materials 1%
- Utilities 1%
Sector-wise, about 75% of the portfolio is in technology, far higher than broad equity benchmarks where tech is a large but not dominant slice. The rest is spread thinly across telecom, industrials, consumer, health care, financials, and other areas. Sector concentration matters because different parts of the economy can move very differently as interest rates, regulation, and innovation cycles change. A tech-heavy mix like this can benefit strongly when innovation is rewarded and growth stocks are in favor, but it may be more sensitive to rate hikes, regulatory scrutiny, or slowdowns in corporate IT and chip spending compared with a more balanced sector spread.
Regions
- North America 95%
- Asia Developed 3%
- Europe Developed 2%
Geographically, the portfolio is overwhelmingly tilted to North America at about 95%, with small allocations to developed Asia and Europe. This is significantly more US‑centric than global benchmarks, where non‑US markets represent a large share of total world equity value. Geographic exposure matters because economic cycles, currencies, and policy choices differ across regions. A portfolio anchored in a single region can do very well when that region leads, as US markets have at times, but it also means results are tightly tied to that economy’s fortunes and its currency, with limited offset from other parts of the world.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 49%
- Large-cap 38%
- Mid-cap 9%
- Small-cap 2%
- Micro-cap 1%
Nearly half of the portfolio is in mega‑cap companies, with most of the rest in large caps and only modest exposure to mid, small, and micro caps. Market capitalization is essentially company size by stock market value, and larger firms often have more diversified businesses and steadier earnings than smaller ones. This size mix makes the portfolio behave more like a large‑cap growth strategy than a broad “all size” equity basket. That typically means lower exposure to the very high volatility and potential upside of tiny companies, but also less of the diversification benefit that comes from owning a wide range of smaller, more niche businesses.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 13.21%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 5.95%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AA Apple Inc 5.71%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 3.88%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 3.39%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc 2.80%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares
-
TS Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing 2.62%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 2.35%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 2.00%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
IN Intel Corporation 1.84%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- Top 10 total 43.75%
Looking through the ETFs’ top holdings, a handful of big names drive a lot of the exposure. NVIDIA alone accounts for about 13% of the portfolio, and Apple, Broadcom, Microsoft, Micron, AMD, and TSMC together add another meaningful chunk. Several of these companies appear in multiple ETFs, which creates hidden concentration: you may own the same stock several times over without seeing it directly. Since this analysis covers only ETF top‑10 holdings, true overlap is likely higher. This clustering means portfolio performance will be heavily influenced by the fortunes of a small group of large, mostly tech‑related companies.
Factors
On factor exposure, the portfolio shows high momentum and low value, yield, and low‑volatility scores, with size and quality near neutral. Factors are characteristics like “momentum” (recent winners), “value” (cheaper stocks), or “low volatility” (steadier names) that research links to returns over time. A strong momentum tilt means the portfolio owns many stocks that have recently done well, which can continue to work in trending markets but may lead to faster losses when trends reverse. Low value and low yield indicate an emphasis on growth and price strength rather than cheapness or income. The low score on low‑volatility also suggests a bias toward more volatile names.
Risk contribution
-
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
Weight: 25.00% 34.4% -
Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 25.00% 25.3% -
Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
Weight: 25.00% 22.3% -
Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
Weight: 25.00% 18.0%
Risk contribution shows how much each ETF adds to the portfolio’s total ups and downs, which can differ from simple weight. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF is 25% of the weight but contributes about 34% of the risk, reflecting the inherently jumpier nature of semiconductor stocks. In contrast, the S&P 500 Momentum ETF contributes less risk than weight, and the two Invesco and Vanguard broad tech‑oriented funds sit closer to parity. The top three holdings together account for about 82% of overall risk, even though they’re only 75% of the capital. This concentration means portfolio volatility is especially sensitive to the semiconductor sleeve.
Redundant positions
-
High correlationInvesco NASDAQ 100 ETFVanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares
Correlation measures how similarly assets move; a value close to 1 means two holdings tend to rise and fall together. Here, the Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF and the Vanguard Information Technology ETF have moved almost identically. That’s not surprising, since both draw heavily from large US tech and related growth companies. Highly correlated holdings can make a portfolio look diversified by ticker count while actually behaving like a single position during big market moves. In this case, owning both funds doesn’t add much diversification benefit against major tech‑driven swings; instead, it reinforces exposure to the same underlying growth and innovation theme.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The risk‑return chart shows the current portfolio below the efficient frontier by about 2.9 percentage points at its risk level. The efficient frontier represents the best trade‑off between risk and expected return using only these existing holdings in different weights. The Sharpe ratio, which measures return per unit of risk above a risk‑free rate, is 0.83 for the current mix, compared with 1.07 for the optimal and 0.98 for the minimum‑variance portfolio. This suggests that, historically, a different combination of the same four ETFs could have delivered either higher expected return for similar risk or lower risk for similar return, without needing any additional products.
Dividends
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.50%
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.20%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.80%
- Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares 0.40%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.48%
The portfolio’s overall dividend yield is about 0.48%, which is quite low compared with many broad equity benchmarks. Dividend yield is the annual cash payout as a percentage of price and can act like a small “rent” payment while you hold an investment. Here, the focus is clearly on growth and price appreciation rather than income, which is common for tech and momentum strategies. In practice, this means most of the return historically has come from rising share prices, not from regular cash distributions. That aligns with the portfolio’s growth‑oriented tilt but offers limited built‑in cash flow from dividends alone.
Ongoing product costs
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.15%
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.35%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
- Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares 0.10%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.18%
The weighted ongoing cost, or TER, for the portfolio is around 0.18% per year, which is quite low for a specialized, growth‑tilted equity mix. TER is like a small annual service fee charged by the funds, reducing returns slightly each year. Over long periods, even small fee differences can compound, so keeping costs down helps more of any gross return stay in the portfolio. Here, costs are a clear strong point: they are close to broad index fund levels despite the more focused exposure. This cost efficiency provides a solid structural base on which the portfolio’s higher risk and concentrated strategy can play out.
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