High growth equity portfolio with strong technology tilt and concentrated sources of risk
Report created on May 13, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
2/5
Positions
-
QQ Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
QQQM - US46138G6492 30.00% -
SM VanEck Semiconductor ETF
SMH - US92189F6768 30.00% -
VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 30.00% -
VX Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
VXUS - US9219097683 10.00%
This portfolio is built entirely from four equity ETFs, with three core US-focused funds at 30% each and a smaller 10% slice in international stocks. Two of the ETFs lean heavily into large US growth and technology names, while the third broad US fund and the international fund add market-wide exposure. Structurally, this is a highly growth-oriented mix with no bonds, cash, or alternatives. That means all of the ups and downs come from stock markets, with no built-in stabilizers. The design creates strong participation in equity rallies, especially in growth areas, while also leaving the portfolio more exposed when stock markets, and particularly growth sectors, sell off sharply.
Growth
Over the period from late 2020 to May 2026, $1,000 in this portfolio grew to about $3,460, which is a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.06%. CAGR is like your average speed on a long road trip, smoothing out all the bumps along the way. This clearly outpaced both the US market (15.77% CAGR) and the global market (13.65% CAGR). The flip side is a max drawdown of -35.16%, meaning the portfolio at one point was over a third below its prior peak. That’s deeper than either benchmark, showing that the extra return came with noticeably higher downside swings.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection uses many randomized “what if” paths based on historical risk and return to estimate future ranges, rather than a single forecast. Here, a $1,000 starting amount over 15 years has a median outcome around $2,623, with a wide “likely” band from about $1,755 to $4,091 and a broader possible range down to roughly $984 and up to $6,731. This spread reflects how uncertain markets can be, especially for an all-equity, growth-tilted portfolio. The average simulated annual return of 7.81% is much lower than the recent historical 25% CAGR, underlining that past strong performance is no guarantee of similarly high future returns.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of the portfolio sits in stocks, with 0% in bonds, cash, or alternative assets. Asset classes are the big building blocks of investing, and mixing them (for example stocks and bonds) is a common way to smooth the ride. Here, the asset-class picture is simple: pure equity risk. Relative to broad “balanced” portfolios that blend stocks and bonds, this structure will usually show higher volatility and deeper drawdowns, but also greater long-term growth potential. It also means that any diversification benefits must come from differences within equities themselves—by sector, geography, or company size—rather than from mixing fundamentally different asset types.
Sectors
- Technology 58%
- Telecommunications 8%
- Consumer Discretionary 7%
- Financials 6%
- Industrials 5%
- Health Care 5%
- Consumer Staples 4%
- Energy 2%
- Basic Materials 2%
- Utilities 1%
- Real Estate 1%
Sector-wise, this portfolio is dominated by technology at 58%, with the rest spread across areas like telecommunications, consumer, financials, industrials, and health care in much smaller slices. Sector classification divides companies by their main line of business, and heavy skew toward a single one can drive overall behavior. Compared with broad equity benchmarks, this is clearly more tech-heavy. That often boosts performance when innovation-focused companies lead the market, but it can also increase sensitivity to things like interest rate changes, regulation, or cyclical swings that particularly affect growth and semiconductor-related businesses.
Regions
- North America 86%
- Europe Developed 5%
- Asia Developed 5%
- Japan 2%
- Asia Emerging 1%
Geographically, about 86% of the portfolio looks through to North American companies, with modest exposure to developed Europe and Asia, and very small slices in Japan and emerging Asia. Geography matters because different regions have distinct economies, currencies, and political environments. Compared with global market weightings, this portfolio is strongly overweight the US and underweight the rest of the world. That aligns closely with the US-focused ETFs at its core and has been beneficial over the last decade when US markets outperformed. It also means portfolio outcomes are closely tied to US economic and policy conditions.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 49%
- Large-cap 35%
- Mid-cap 12%
- Small-cap 2%
- Micro-cap 1%
By market capitalization, almost half of the portfolio is in mega-cap stocks, with another 35% in large caps and relatively small allocations in mid, small, and micro caps. Market cap measures a company’s size, and size segments often behave differently in various market cycles. This tilt toward the biggest companies is typical for index-based and growth-leaning strategies, and it helps align the portfolio with well-known global leaders. The relatively limited exposure to smaller companies means less sensitivity to the sometimes sharper swings and unique opportunities found in that segment, keeping the overall profile closer to mainstream large-cap equity markets.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 9.43%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AA Apple Inc 3.91%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 3.91%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc 3.14%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 3.04%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
TS Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing 2.93%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 2.84%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
IN Intel Corporation 2.49%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 2.41%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 1.95%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- Top 10 total 36.04%
The look-through data, even though it only covers ETF top-10 holdings, already shows meaningful concentration in a handful of large technology and semiconductor names. NVIDIA alone accounts for about 9.43% of the portfolio, with Apple, Broadcom, AMD, Micron, TSMC, Microsoft, Intel, Amazon, and Alphabet also appearing across funds. When the same company shows up in multiple ETFs, that overlap can create hidden concentration—your exposure to that stock is higher than any single fund’s weight suggests. Because only top-10 positions are visible, true overlap is likely higher, reinforcing that a relatively small group of mega-cap growth names drives a substantial share of portfolio behavior.
Factors
Factor exposure shows mild tilts away from value, yield, and low volatility, with size, momentum, and quality roughly neutral. Factors are characteristics—like value or momentum—that research links to long-run return patterns, similar to ingredients in a recipe that affect the taste. A low value score (28%) and low yield (40%) indicate the portfolio leans more toward higher-priced, lower-dividend growth companies rather than cheaper, income-generating ones. The low volatility reading (34%) suggests the holdings are somewhat more volatile than the market average. Together, this paints a picture of a growth-driven, higher-risk equity style rather than a defensive or income-oriented one.
Risk contribution
-
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
Weight: 30.00% 44.3% -
Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
Weight: 30.00% 28.6% -
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 30.00% 21.5% -
Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 10.00% 5.6%
Risk contribution highlights how much each ETF drives the portfolio’s ups and downs, which can differ from its weight. Here, the VanEck Semiconductor ETF is 30% of the portfolio but contributes about 44% of total risk, with a risk/weight ratio of 1.48. That means it punches above its size in terms of volatility impact. By contrast, the broad US and international funds contribute less risk than their weights imply. The top three ETFs together account for over 94% of portfolio risk, showing that most of the overall variability comes from a small set of positions, especially the focused semiconductor slice.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The risk vs. return chart shows this portfolio with a Sharpe ratio of 0.86, compared with 1.09 for the optimal mix and 0.80 for the minimum-variance option. The Sharpe ratio compares excess return to volatility, like measuring how much “reward” you get per unit of “bumpiness.” The current allocation sits about 1.21 percentage points below the efficient frontier at its risk level, meaning a different weighting of the same four ETFs could, in theory, improve risk-adjusted returns. Importantly, the minimum-variance portfolio uses the same building blocks but targets lower risk, illustrating how much of the experience is driven by allocation choices rather than the holdings themselves.
Dividends
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.40%
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.20%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.00%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 2.70%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.75%
The overall dividend yield sits around 0.75%, with the international ETF providing the highest yield and the semiconductor ETF the lowest. Dividend yield is the annual cash payout as a percentage of price, and can be thought of as the “income” component of return, separate from price changes. This relatively low portfolio yield is consistent with its growth tilt and concentration in technology and higher-valuation companies that often reinvest earnings instead of paying them out. For an equity strategy focused on capital appreciation, this pattern is common, and it means that most of the return historically has come from price movement rather than steady income.
Ongoing product costs
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.15%
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.35%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.16%
The weighted total expense ratio (TER) of roughly 0.16% per year is impressively low for a portfolio with both broad and specialized ETFs. TER is the annual fee charged by a fund, similar to a small percentage skimmed off for management and operations. Low costs are helpful because they reduce the drag on returns year after year, and the effect compounds over time. Here, the broad Vanguard funds keep the average down, while the focused semiconductor ETF is somewhat pricier but still within a typical range for niche exposures. Overall, the cost structure aligns well with best practices for long-term equity investing.
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