Almost brilliant US equity engine with a quiet addiction to tech and concentration risk
Report created on May 25, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
-
VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 50.00% -
AV Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 20.00% -
QQ Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
QQQM - US46138G6492 20.00% -
AV Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF
AVDV - US0250728021 10.00%
This portfolio is a US-equity theme park where every ride is just a different flavor of stocks. Half the money sits in a broad US fund, then you bolt on a big NASDAQ 100 slab and a chunky small-cap value side quest, plus a tiny ticket to international small value to look worldly. It’s basically “US stocks, but louder.” Structurally, it’s simple and reasonably coherent, but the overlapping funds mean what looks like four holdings is really one big bet wearing three different outfits. The result is a portfolio that feels diversified at a glance yet revolves around the same growthy US engine hiding inside multiple wrappers.
Growth
Historically, this thing has absolutely ripped: turning $1,000 into $2,439 and beating both the US and global markets on CAGR. So yes, the rearview mirror looks great. Max drawdown around -25% was only slightly worse than the US market, but the 11-month slide and 15-month recovery show it can sit in the penalty box for a while. The 90% of returns coming from just 29 days screams “miss a few big up days and the magic trick disappears.” As always, past performance is yesterday’s weather: useful context, zero guarantees the forecast repeats.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection basically says, “probably fine, but don’t get cocky.” A median outcome of $2,842 over 15 years is solid, yet the possible range from roughly flat to more than sevenfold is a reminder that markets don’t owe anyone smooth progress. Monte Carlo just reruns history-style randomness thousands of times to see a spread of outcomes, not to predict an exact number. Here, the 76% chance of ending ahead is decent, but that 24% chance of being no better or worse than cash is the tax for running an all-equity roller coaster.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
Asset class breakdown is the definition of “one-trick pony”: 100% stocks, 0% anything else. No bonds, no cash buffering, no other diversifiers — just pure equity beta turned up to “hope nothing catches fire.” That’s great when markets are friendly, less cute when volatility shows up and everything on the statement is bleeding red at the same time. Having only one asset class means there’s nowhere to hide during equity tantrums. It’s like building a house entirely out of glass: fantastic light, absolutely terrible when rocks start flying.
Sectors
- Technology 30%
- Financials 13%
- Consumer Discretionary 12%
- Industrials 10%
- Telecommunications 9%
- Energy 7%
- Health Care 7%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Basic Materials 4%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 1%
Sector-wise, this is tech and tech-adjacent with a supporting cast. A 30% technology weight makes it clear who’s in charge, and the heavy representation of the usual mega-cap darlings pushes that dominance even further than the raw sector breakdown admits. Financials, consumer discretionary, and industrials show up enough to pretend there’s balance, but the real story is still “if high-growth names sneeze, this portfolio catches pneumonia.” Compared with broad indexes, the tilt toward tech glamour means extra sensitivity to changes in growth expectations, interest rates, and hype cycles.
Regions
- North America 90%
- Europe Developed 4%
- Japan 3%
- Australasia 1%
- Africa/Middle East 1%
Geographically, this is basically “USA plus some tourist money.” About 90% in North America means the rest of the world gets whatever crumbs are left over. That 10% in international small-cap value is doing its best impression of a participation trophy: technically there, practically irrelevant. While many global indexes spread exposure more evenly, this one behaves like the rest of the planet is a nice optional side quest to the main game of US equities. When the US leads, this looks smart; when it lags, the home bias suddenly feels a lot less patriotic.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 31%
- Large-cap 22%
- Mid-cap 18%
- Small-cap 17%
- Micro-cap 11%
The market cap mix is oddly chaotic in a semi-intentional way. On paper, you’ve got a decent spread from mega-caps (31%) down to micro-caps (11%), which sounds nicely balanced. In practice, the mega-caps are steering the bus while a swarm of small and micro names clings to the back bumper. The broad US fund plus NASDAQ 100 pour heavy weight into giants, then the Avantis funds yank hard toward the tiny and unloved end of town. The result is a barbell structure that can swing more than expected when either the giants or the runts of the litter have a bad year.
True holdings
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NV NVIDIA Corporation 5.11%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AA Apple Inc 4.32%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 3.22%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 2.79%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 2.38%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 2.09%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 1.98%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
TS Tesla Inc 1.45%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 0.97%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 0.70%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Top 10 total 25.02%
Look-through holdings scream “hidden concentration in shiny objects.” NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Broadcom, Tesla, and Meta all show up as recurring headliners. That’s despite you not holding them directly; they’re just embedded inside multiple ETFs like a tech Matryoshka doll. With only top-10 ETF positions included, the overlap is almost certainly worse under the hood. So what looks like diversified ETF exposure is, in reality, a fairly aggressive pile-up in the same mega-cap growth celebrities that already dominate every headline and benchmark chart.
Factors
Factor-wise, the profile is almost suspiciously normal. Everything sits near “neutral” — value, size, momentum, quality, yield, low volatility all hovering around 50%. Factor exposure is basically the ingredient label explaining why returns behave the way they do; here, the mix says “generic market stew” rather than a strong style bet. For a portfolio that looks spicy on the surface with small-cap value plus tech-heavy growth, the factor stats imply the extremes are canceling each other out. It ends up as a surprisingly vanilla factor blend trapped in a very not-vanilla package.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 50.00% 47.4% -
Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
Weight: 20.00% 22.6% -
Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 20.00% 22.3% -
Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 10.00% 7.8%
Risk contribution reveals who’s actually making this thing move, and it’s mostly the top three holdings doing the heavy lifting. The broad US fund is half the weight and about half the risk, which is fine. The NASDAQ 100 and US small-cap value funds, though only 20% each, together add almost 45% of the risk, punching above their weight. That leaves the lonely 10% international slice contributing under 8% of the drama. So this “four-fund portfolio” is really a three-horse race, with the international position just jogging along in the background pretending to matter.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The efficient frontier chart quietly roasts the current setup: at this risk level, you’re roughly 2 percentage points below what could be achieved just by reshuffling the same four funds. The Sharpe ratio of 0.77 versus 1.06 for the optimal mix means you’re taking the same roller coaster ride but sitting in a worse seat. Efficient frontier is just the curve of best possible risk/return combos using existing ingredients; being below it says the recipe is slightly off. The good news: the holdings themselves aren’t the issue — the proportions are just a bit clumsy.
Dividends
- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 2.80%
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.30%
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.40%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.00%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.12%
Dividend yield at 1.12% is firmly in the “don’t quit your day job” category. The NASDAQ-heavy slice drags income down, while the small-cap value funds try to inject some yield respectability and mostly fail. This portfolio is clearly built for growth rather than a paycheck, so the income stream is more like pocket change than rent money. Dividends aren’t useless, but here they’re a side character, not the plot. Anyone expecting this lineup to throw off meaningful cash flow is basically hoping a growth portfolio magically behaves like an income one.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 0.36%
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.15%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.13%
Costs are arguably the most competent part of the whole design: a blended TER of 0.13% is refreshingly sane. The dirt-cheap Vanguard core does most of the heavy lifting, while the more expensive Avantis funds sneak in factor tilts without blowing up the budget. The NASDAQ ETF isn’t a bargain-bin special, but it’s far from offensive. Overall, this is a portfolio that takes risk with asset choices, not with fee bloat. It’s almost like you accidentally did something rational while chasing performance elsewhere — fees are not the villain in this story.
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