High growth tech focused portfolio with very concentrated risk in a single volatile stock
Report created on May 26, 2026Risk profile
7/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
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ES Vanguard ESG US Stock
ESGV - US9219107334 30.00% -
GO Alphabet Inc Class A
GOOGL - US02079K3059 29.00% -
SO Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
SOXQ - US46138G6153 10.50% -
MU Micron Technology Inc
MU - US5951121038 8.20% -
VX Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
VXUS - US9219097683 7.90% -
IA iShares® Gold Trust Micro
IAUM - US46436F1030 6.60% -
SM Super Micro Computer Inc
SMCI - US86800U3023 4.40% -
NB Nebius Group N.V.
NBIS - NL0009805522 3.40%
This portfolio is built almost entirely from equities, mixing broad index ETFs with a few very focused single stocks. A large slice sits in a diversified US ESG fund, but big direct positions in Alphabet and several chip and hardware names give the portfolio a strong growth and technology flavor. A small allocation to international equities broadens the base a bit, and a modest gold ETF position adds a non‑equity element. Structurally, this is a concentrated high‑conviction setup rather than a broad “own everything” mix. That kind of structure tends to amplify both upside and downside, because a few holdings can heavily influence overall results rather than risks and returns being spread more evenly.
Growth
Over the last few years, $1,000 in this portfolio grew to about $3,405, which is far ahead of both the US market and global market references. The portfolio’s compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of roughly 72.9% means it grew extremely fast on average, like a car doing a very high average speed over a long trip. At the same time, the maximum drawdown of about –31% shows it has already gone through a sharp drop. That’s noticeably deeper than the benchmarks’ worst falls. Returns also came from a small number of days, which suggests performance was driven by a handful of big moves rather than steady, gradual gains.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection looks at many possible futures by reshuffling patterns from past returns, a bit like simulating thousands of alternate timelines. Here, a $1,000 starting amount ends at a median (most typical) outcome of about $2,777 over 15 years, with a wide “likely” range running from roughly $1,777 to $4,133. The broader range from $1,017 to $7,549 highlights just how spread out the potential paths are. This method depends on historical behavior, which may not repeat, especially for concentrated, fast‑growing holdings. So the numbers are best seen as a rough map of uncertainty, not a promise of where the portfolio will actually land.
Asset classes
- Stocks 93%
- No data 7%
Asset‑class exposure here is overwhelmingly in equities, at about 93%, with a small slice showing as “no data” and a modest indirect hedge from the gold ETF. Equities are the main driver of long‑term growth, but they also carry more short‑term volatility than cash or high‑grade bonds. Compared with more mixed stock‑bond portfolios, this structure leans heavily into growth potential and away from built‑in stabilizers. The presence of gold does add a different type of asset, but at its size it only softens, rather than transforms, the equity‑heavy character. This setup is consistent with a high‑risk profile, where swings in value are expected as part of pursuing higher return potential.
Sectors
- Telecommunications 36%
- Technology 36%
- Financials 6%
- Consumer Discretionary 4%
- Health Care 4%
- Industrials 3%
- Consumer Staples 2%
- Basic Materials 1%
- Real Estate 1%
Sector‑wise, the portfolio is dominated by two areas that each make up roughly a third of the equity slice: telecommunications and technology. That’s a much stronger tilt toward growth‑oriented, innovation‑driven businesses than broad market indices, which spread more across defensive areas. Smaller allocations to financials, consumer industries, health care, and industrials provide some balance, but they are relatively modest. When a portfolio leans so heavily into a couple of fast‑moving sectors, its ups and downs can become more sensitive to shifts in interest rates, regulation, or sentiment toward those specific industries. The strong sector focus helps explain both the powerful recent performance and the relatively deep drawdowns observed.
Regions
- North America 82%
- Europe Developed 7%
- Asia Developed 2%
- Japan 1%
- Asia Emerging 1%
Geographically, exposure is centered on North America, at about 82%, with limited allocations to developed Europe and small slices across Asia and Japan. This is a clear home‑region tilt compared with global indices, where the US share is lower and other regions play a larger role. Concentrating in one major economic area can work very well when that region leads global markets, as North America has often done, but it also ties the portfolio more closely to that region’s economic cycle, policy changes, and currency. The modest international holdings do broaden the opportunity set somewhat, yet the portfolio remains strongly anchored to one main geographic engine.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 59%
- Large-cap 23%
- Mid-cap 8%
- Small-cap 2%
Most of the portfolio’s equity exposure is in mega‑cap and large‑cap companies, which together make up over 80% of the allocation. These are the biggest listed firms, often with established businesses and deep liquidity, which can sometimes help with trading and stability relative to smaller names. However, there is still exposure to mid‑ and small‑caps, which often move more sharply in both directions. This mix means the portfolio participates in the leadership of large global names while still tapping into some of the higher‑volatility potential of smaller companies. Compared with a pure broad market index, the overall size profile leans a bit toward the largest, most prominent firms, especially in the key growth sectors.
True holdings
-
Part of fund(s):
- Vanguard ESG US Stock
-
Part of fund(s):
- Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
-
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 3.50%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
- Vanguard ESG US Stock
-
-
AA Apple Inc 2.22%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard ESG US Stock
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 2.01%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard ESG US Stock
-
AV Broadcom Inc 1.82%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
- Vanguard ESG US Stock
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 1.24%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard ESG US Stock
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 0.84%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard ESG US Stock
- Top 10 total 58.70%
Looking through the ETFs into underlying holdings, a few companies stand out as major drivers. Alphabet appears both directly and via funds, giving it just over 30% total exposure, while Micron reaches about 9.25% in total. There’s also meaningful look‑through exposure to names like NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Broadcom. This shows that buying both direct stocks and broad funds can quietly stack exposure to the same companies, creating hidden concentration. Overlap figures here are actually conservative because only ETF top‑10 holdings are counted, so true overlap is likely a bit higher. The result is a portfolio that looks diversified by line items but is quite focused at the underlying company level.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
The factor profile is strongly tilted toward momentum and quality, both at very high levels. Momentum exposure means the portfolio leans into stocks that have been recent winners, which can boost returns in trending markets but can also lead to sharper drops if trends reverse suddenly. High quality exposure points to companies with strong balance sheets or profitability metrics, which historically can be more resilient during stress, though not immune to losses. On the flip side, there is a very low size factor score, indicating a bias away from smaller companies in factor terms. Value, yield, and low volatility all screen low, so the portfolio is not oriented toward bargain pricing, income, or smoother ride characteristics.
Risk contribution
-
Super Micro Computer Inc
Weight: 4.40% 53.0% -
Vanguard ESG US Stock
Weight: 30.00% 14.8% -
Alphabet Inc Class A
Weight: 29.00% 12.0% -
Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
Weight: 10.50% 8.8% -
Micron Technology Inc
Weight: 8.20% 4.7% - Top 5 risk contribution 93.3%
Risk contribution reveals how much each position drives overall ups and downs, regardless of its weight. Here, one stock, Super Micro Computer, is only about 4.4% of the portfolio but contributes nearly 53% of total risk, meaning it behaves like the “loud instrument” dominating the orchestra. By contrast, large holdings like the Vanguard ESG US fund and Alphabet carry much lower risk shares than their weights would suggest. The top three positions by weight still make up almost 80% of risk, so the portfolio’s day‑to‑day behavior is heavily shaped by a small group of names. This helps explain both the strong performance and the high risk score.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The efficient frontier chart compares the current mix with other possible weightings of exactly the same holdings. Here, the current portfolio sits well below the frontier at its risk level, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.22 versus 2.19 for the optimal combination. The Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk, similar to asking how much “speed” you get for each notch of volatility. Being 40 percentage points below the frontier means that, historically, different weights across these same assets could have delivered either similar returns with much less risk, or higher risk‑adjusted returns overall. This doesn’t guarantee the same pattern in the future, but it shows the present mix is quite aggressive relative to its own opportunity set.
Dividends
- Vanguard ESG US Stock 0.90%
- Alphabet Inc Class A 0.20%
- Micron Technology Inc 0.10%
- Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF 0.30%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 2.70%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.58%
The portfolio’s overall dividend yield of about 0.58% is low, with most major positions paying little or no income. The main exception is the international equity ETF, which has a higher yield around 2.7%, but its small weight limits its impact on the total. This pattern is common in growth‑oriented, tech‑heavy portfolios, where companies often reinvest profits rather than paying them out as dividends. In practice, this means most of the portfolio’s return historically has come from price changes, not cash distributions. For someone looking to understand the portfolio, it’s helpful to see dividends as a minor side benefit here, not a central feature of how this mix has created value so far.
Ongoing product costs
- Vanguard ESG US Stock 0.09%
- iShares® Gold Trust Micro 0.09%
- Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF 0.19%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.06%
Costs are a clear strength. The weighted total expense ratio is about 0.06%, which is extremely low by industry standards. Most ETFs used are low‑fee index‑style funds, and the direct stocks don’t carry ongoing fund expenses. Even small fee differences compound over time, so keeping costs this lean helps more of any future return stay in the portfolio rather than going to providers. For a concentrated, high‑growth mix, it’s notable that costs are not the drag; the main drivers of outcomes are asset choice and risk level, not fees. This cost structure is well‑aligned with best practices for long‑term equity investing and provides a solid foundation.
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