Highly concentrated US momentum portfolio with leveraged growth tilt and sizeable stabilizing cash position
Report created on Jul 22, 2026Risk profile
7/7
Diversification profile
4/5
Positions
-
MT iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF
MTUM - US46432F3964 50.00% -
TQ ProShares UltraPro QQQ
TQQQ - US74347X8314 25.00% -
VM Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund Investor Shares
VMFXX - US9229063006 25.00%
This portfolio is built around three positions with very different roles. About half is in a US momentum equity ETF, a quarter is in a triple‑leveraged growth ETF, and the remaining quarter sits in a federal money market fund. So 75% is growth‑oriented, while 25% is effectively parked in cash‑like assets. This creates a barbell shape: one side holds high‑octane equity exposure, the other holds a relatively steady, low‑volatility anchor. Such a structure can produce strong gains when markets rise yet still maintain a buffer that barely moves. The trade‑off is that the growth side is heavily amplified, so swings in that portion dominate the overall experience despite the cash ballast.
Growth
Historically, this mix has delivered very strong growth: $1,000 grew to about $10,512, far ahead of both US and global markets. The portfolio’s compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.63% meaning average yearly growth over the period significantly beat the US market’s 15.01%. That came with a deep maximum drawdown of about -66%, roughly double the benchmark losses. Drawdown is the peak‑to‑trough fall, and it signals how painful bad periods can feel. It took almost two years to recover from the 2022 slump, so patience was required. A small number of days drove most returns, reflecting how leveraged, momentum‑heavy strategies often hinge on a handful of very strong market bursts.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection uses past volatility and returns to simulate many possible 15‑year paths for a $1,000 investment. Think of it as running 1,000 alternate futures where markets roll different “dice” each year, based on historical patterns. The median outcome lands around $2,615, with most simulations falling between about $1,824 and $3,552. Extreme paths range from near capital preservation to roughly sixfold growth. The average simulated annual return of 7.18% is far lower than historical backtested growth, underlining that past performance doesn’t guarantee similar future gains. The model also compares cash‑like returns, showing that staying invested historically added potential upside but with a wide spread of results, especially for a high‑volatility portfolio like this.
Asset classes
- Stocks 74%
- Cash 25%
- Bonds 1%
Across asset classes, roughly three‑quarters of the portfolio sits in stocks and about a quarter in cash, with only a token amount classified as bonds. That 74% equity share is higher than many broad benchmarks that often mix in more bonds, but the large cash stake sets this portfolio apart. Equities are the main growth engine, while cash acts like a ballast that barely responds to market moves. This barbell can dampen portfolio‑level volatility compared with going 100% into the same high‑risk stocks. However, within the equity slice the use of leverage and momentum still makes the invested portion quite aggressive. So overall risk is driven more by the style of the stock exposure than by the high cash weighting.
Sectors
- Cash 25%
- Technology 24%
- Industrials 7%
- Energy 6%
- Financials 3%
- Telecommunications 2%
- Consumer Staples 2%
- Health Care 2%
- Consumer Discretionary 2%
- Basic Materials 1%
- Real Estate 1%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Sector‑wise, the portfolio leans strongly into technology‑related companies, which make up roughly a quarter of the exposure, with additional weights in industrials, energy, financials, and several smaller sectors. This mix is relatively diversified across industries but clearly tilted toward growth‑oriented and cyclical areas rather than slow‑and‑steady ones. Sector exposure matters because different industries react differently to interest rates, inflation, and economic cycles. Tech‑heavy allocations can perform very well when innovation and growth are rewarded but may be hit harder when rates rise or investors rotate toward more defensive names. The 25% cash sleeve sits outside these sector swings, which can soften the impact of a tech‑led downturn at the total‑portfolio level.
Regions
- North America 50%
- Cash 25%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Geographically, the equity portion is almost entirely focused on North America, with about half the portfolio in that region plus a quarter held as cash. That means very little exposure to other major economies and currencies. Geographic concentration matters because local economic cycles, regulations, and market leadership can differ widely across regions. A portfolio centered on a single region can benefit when that market outperforms, as US equities have often done in recent years. However, it will also be more exposed if that region hits a rough patch or experiences policy shocks. The strong North American tilt aligns with many US‑focused strategies but offers limited diversification benefits from overseas markets.
Market capitalization
- Large-cap 30%
- Mega-cap 16%
- Mid-cap 12%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only. Some holdings may not have full classification data available. Percentages may not add up to 100%.
By market capitalization, the holdings skew toward large and mega‑cap companies, with some mid‑cap exposure. Large‑cap means established firms with big market values, often more stable and liquid than smaller counterparts. Mega‑caps are the giants that frequently dominate major indices and headlines. This tilt aligns reasonably well with broad US benchmarks, which are also dominated by larger companies. Mid‑caps add a bit of extra growth and volatility but remain a minority. The focus on bigger names can be positive for liquidity and transparency, as these firms are widely followed and included in major ETFs. At the same time, it means less participation in the potential higher risk‑higher reward segment of small‑cap stocks.
True holdings
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MU Micron Technology Inc 3.74%
Part of fund(s):- ProShares UltraPro QQQ
- iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF
-
AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc 2.78%
Part of fund(s):- ProShares UltraPro QQQ
- iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF
-
IN Intel Corporation 2.42%
Part of fund(s):- iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 2.33%
Part of fund(s):- ProShares UltraPro QQQ
- iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF
-
CA Caterpillar Inc 1.95%
Part of fund(s):- iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF
-
LR Lam Research Corp 1.79%
Part of fund(s):- iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF
-
AM Applied Materials Inc 1.60%
Part of fund(s):- iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF
-
XO Exxon Mobil Corp 1.58%
Part of fund(s):- iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF
-
JN Johnson & Johnson 1.49%
Part of fund(s):- iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF
-
GE GE Vernova LLC 1.40%
Part of fund(s):- iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF
- Top 10 total 21.09%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Looking through the ETFs’ top holdings, several semiconductor and industrial names show up as notable exposures, such as Micron, AMD, Intel, Broadcom, and Caterpillar. These positions together make up a visible chunk of the portfolio’s look‑through exposure, even though top‑10 data only covers about a quarter of total holdings. When the same company appears in multiple funds, it creates “overlap,” increasing effective concentration beyond what headline fund counts suggest. Here, several chipmakers repeat, which reinforces the technology‑hardware theme. Because only top‑10 ETF holdings are included, actual overlap is likely understated. This means company‑specific developments in these names can influence the portfolio more than a simple three‑fund list might imply.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
Factor exposure shows a pronounced tilt toward momentum, with a score of 76% compared with a market‑like 50%. Momentum means favoring stocks that have recently performed well, under the idea that winners often keep winning for a while. This can boost returns in trending markets but may suffer when trends reverse sharply. The portfolio shows low exposure to value, size (meaning smaller companies), yield, and low volatility factors, so it leans away from cheaper, smaller, high‑dividend, or steadier stocks. Quality sits near neutral, suggesting no major tilt there. Overall, this is a growth‑and‑trend‑focused profile, which helps explain both the strong historical returns and the potential for sharp drawdowns when market leadership rotates.
Risk contribution
-
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Weight: 25.00% 61.2% -
iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF
Weight: 50.00% 38.8% -
Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund Investor Shares
Weight: 25.00% 0.0%
Risk contribution highlights how much each holding drives overall ups and downs, which can differ a lot from its weight. The leveraged ETF, at 25% weight, contributes about 61% of total portfolio risk, meaning it dominates the ride. The momentum ETF, at 50% weight, contributes roughly 39% of risk, while the 25% money market slice contributes essentially none. A risk/weight ratio above 1 indicates a holding is “punching above its weight” in volatility terms; the leveraged ETF’s ratio of 2.45 is a clear example. This pattern shows that, despite the sizeable cash buffer, the portfolio’s day‑to‑day behavior is mostly dictated by the leveraged position’s amplified swings.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The risk‑return chart shows the current mix sits on or very near the efficient frontier, meaning that for its chosen risk level it is using its three holdings in a mathematically efficient way. The Sharpe ratio, which measures return per unit of volatility over the risk‑free rate, is 0.73 for the current portfolio. There exists a higher Sharpe portfolio using the same holdings but at much higher risk and return, and a minimum‑variance mix with very low risk but also very low return. Since the current point already lies close to the frontier, the weights are coherent with an efficient use of these specific building blocks, even though one holding still dominates the overall risk profile.
Dividends
- iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF 0.60%
- ProShares UltraPro QQQ 0.50%
- Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund Investor Shares 3.80%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.38%
The portfolio’s overall dividend yield is modest at about 1.38%, with the main cash fund offering the highest yield and the equity funds paying relatively little. Yield represents the income paid out as dividends or interest, expressed as a percentage of the investment value. Here, most of the expected total return historically has come from price movement, not income. The leveraged ETF especially is oriented around capital gains rather than payouts. The money market fund provides a more predictable income stream tied to short‑term interest rates, which currently boosts the portfolio’s yield somewhat. Still, this structure is clearly growth‑tilted rather than income‑oriented, and income levels will change as yields and rates move over time.
Ongoing product costs
- iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF 0.15%
- ProShares UltraPro QQQ 0.88%
- Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund Investor Shares 0.11%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.32%
Total ongoing fund costs are around 0.32% per year when weighted by position sizes. The money market and momentum ETF have relatively low expense ratios, while the leveraged ETF is more expensive at 0.88%, which is typical for complex, daily‑reset leveraged products. Costs matter because even small percentages compound over many years, quietly eating into returns. In this case, the blended cost level is moderate, especially considering the specialized nature of the leveraged exposure. Compared with many actively managed funds, this total expense ratio is competitive. Keeping costs under control supports better long‑term outcomes, particularly when combined with higher‑risk strategies where performance dispersion can already be wide.
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