Your portfolio is split between 60% in the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares and 40% in the Vanguard Total International Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares. This allocation underscores a strategic balance between domestic and international exposure, aiming to capture the growth potential of global markets while mitigating risk through diversification. The blend of these two ETFs provides broad coverage across various sectors and geographic regions, aligning with a balanced risk profile that seeks growth with a moderate level of risk tolerance.
Historically, your portfolio has demonstrated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 11.69%, with a maximum drawdown of -34.52%. These figures suggest a resilient performance across varying market conditions, with the potential for significant recoveries after downturns. The days contributing to 90% of the returns indicate that a small number of high-performing days have driven the majority of your portfolio's growth, a common characteristic of equity investments.
Monte Carlo simulations, which use historical data to project future outcomes, show a wide range of potential portfolio values. The 50th percentile outcome of a 299.7% increase suggests a strong potential for growth, while the 5th percentile at 32.1% growth indicates resilience in less favorable conditions. These projections, while informative, rely on past trends and cannot guarantee future performance.
Your portfolio is almost entirely invested in stocks (99%), with a minimal cash holding (1%). This asset allocation is consistent with a growth-oriented strategy, leveraging the potential for higher returns from the stock market. However, the lack of diversification into other asset classes such as bonds or real estate might limit opportunities to reduce volatility and secure income through different market cycles.
The sectoral allocation within your portfolio is well-diversified, with significant exposure to technology (24%), financial services (18%), and industrials (12%). This diversification can help mitigate sector-specific risks and capitalize on growth opportunities across the economy. However, the heavy weighting in technology and financial services sectors may introduce higher volatility, given their sensitivity to market fluctuations and economic conditions.
Geographically, your portfolio is predominantly invested in North America (63%), with meaningful exposure to developed Europe (16%) and emerging markets in Asia (6%). This geographic distribution supports diversification across different economic regions, potentially reducing risk and capturing growth from both developed and emerging markets. However, the underrepresentation of emerging markets outside of Asia could limit exposure to high-growth regions.
With 42% in mega-cap, 31% in large-cap, 18% in mid-cap, and a small portion in small and micro-cap stocks, your portfolio is skewed towards companies with larger market capitalizations. This bias towards larger companies may contribute to stability and lower volatility but could also limit potential high-growth opportunities found in smaller-cap companies.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
Considering the Efficient Frontier, your current allocation between domestic and international equities appears to balance risk and return effectively. However, incorporating a wider range of asset classes could potentially optimize this balance further, achieving a more efficient risk-return profile. This optimization process seeks to maximize returns for a given level of risk, though it's based on historical data and assumptions about future performance.
The dividend yield of your portfolio stands at an average of 1.84%, combining the yields from both the domestic and international ETFs. This level of income generation, while modest, contributes to the total return of the portfolio, providing a buffer in volatile or declining markets. However, the primary focus appears to be on capital appreciation rather than income.
Your portfolio benefits from exceptionally low total expense ratios (TERs) of 0.04%, a factor that significantly enhances net returns over the long term. Lower costs mean more of your investment returns are retained, a critical aspect of successful long-term investing, especially in a low-yield environment.
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