Focused US growth portfolio with heavy technology tilt and strong recent returns but notable concentration risk
Report created on May 11, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
2/5
Positions
-
QQ Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
QQQM - US46138G6492 35.00% -
VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 35.00% -
AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc
AMD - US0079031078 12.50% -
MS Microsoft Corporation
MSFT - US5949181045 12.50% -
JO Joby Aviation
JOBY - KYG651631007 5.00%
This portfolio is tightly focused, with 70% in two broad US equity ETFs and 30% in three individual US stocks. Everything sits in stocks, with no bonds or cash-like assets in the mix. Within the stock sleeve, there is a clear tilt toward large US technology and growth names, plus a smaller speculative position in Joby Aviation. This structure means the portfolio behaves very much like a high-octane US growth basket rather than a globally diversified mix. The clear upside is simplicity and high exposure to growth drivers that have done well recently. The trade-off is that portfolio ups and downs are closely tied to a relatively narrow set of companies and one country.
Growth
Over the measured period, a hypothetical $1,000 grew to about $2,540, giving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.57%. CAGR is like your average yearly “speed” over the full trip, smoothing out bumps along the way. This beat both the broad US market (15.75%) and the global market (13.39%). The cost of that outperformance was a deeper maximum drawdown of -36.51%, compared with around -24% to -26% for the benchmarks. That drawdown took almost a year to bottom and more than another year to recover, illustrating how higher-return portfolios can require more patience during long rough patches.
Projection
The forward projection uses a Monte Carlo simulation, which basically runs 1,000 “alternate futures” using patterns from past returns and volatility. It shows a median outcome of about $2,835 from a $1,000 starting point over 15 years, with a wide range from roughly $1,021 to $8,140 between the 5th and 95th percentiles. This highlights that even with an average simulated return of 8.36% per year, outcomes can vary a lot. About 76.5% of the simulations end positive, but none of them are guaranteed. As with all simulations, results heavily depend on past data, which may not repeat in the same way going forward.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of the portfolio is invested in equities, with no allocation to bonds, real estate funds, or cash. Asset classes are simply broad “buckets” like stocks, bonds, and cash that behave differently in various market environments. A 100% equity allocation usually means higher expected long-term returns, but also larger swings in account value and potentially bigger losses in downturns. Compared with typical blended portfolios that include bonds, this one leans clearly toward growth and volatility. On the positive side, the equity funds inside do cover a wide range of company types, helping diversify within the stock bucket even though the overall asset-class mix is single-minded.
Sectors
- Technology 55%
- Industrials 9%
- Telecommunications 9%
- Consumer Discretionary 8%
- Health Care 5%
- Financials 4%
- Consumer Staples 4%
- Energy 2%
- Utilities 1%
- Basic Materials 1%
- Real Estate 1%
Sector-wise, technology dominates at 55%, with the rest spread thinly across areas like industrials, telecom, consumer, health care, and financials. This tech-heavy stance is common for US growth portfolios, especially those influenced by the NASDAQ 100, but it is more concentrated than a broad global benchmark where tech’s share is lower. Sector concentration matters because certain environments, like rising interest rates or shifts in regulation, can hit similar companies at the same time. Here, the portfolio is strongly aligned with recent market leadership, which has boosted returns. It also means that if technology or related growth sectors cool off, the portfolio has relatively little in other areas to offset that impact.
Regions
- North America 99%
- Europe Developed 1%
Geographically, about 99% of the portfolio sits in North America, with only a token allocation to developed Europe and essentially nothing elsewhere. Geography diversification spreads exposure across different economies, currencies, and policy regimes. A global equity benchmark typically has a much lower US share, with meaningful weights to Europe and Asia. This almost-all-US stance has worked well during a period when US markets, especially US tech, outperformed much of the world. The flip side is that market, economic, and currency risks are all heavily tied to one region. Any US-specific shock would be felt across almost the entire portfolio at once.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 58%
- Large-cap 28%
- Mid-cap 10%
- Small-cap 2%
- Micro-cap 1%
By market capitalization, the portfolio tilts strongly toward mega-cap and large-cap companies, which together make up 86% of exposure. Market cap is simply the total value of a company’s shares, and larger firms often have more diversified business lines and more stable earnings than smaller ones. There is still a modest sleeve in mid, small, and micro caps, adding some extra growth and volatility potential. Overall, this pattern looks fairly similar to broad US equity benchmarks, where the largest companies dominate index weightings. That alignment tends to support liquidity and tradability, while still leaving a bit of room for smaller, more dynamic companies to influence returns at the margin.
True holdings
-
Part of fund(s):
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
Part of fund(s):
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 5.28%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
-
AA Apple Inc 4.57%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 2.84%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 2.30%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 2.01%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 1.97%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
TS Tesla Inc 1.80%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- Top 10 total 55.22%
The look-through view shows that certain names appear both as direct stocks and inside the ETFs, creating hidden concentration. Microsoft totals about 15.9% of the portfolio, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) about 13.6%, once ETF exposure is added to the direct holdings. Big positions like NVIDIA, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Broadcom, and Tesla also show up via the ETFs, further concentrating exposure in a tight cluster of large US growth companies. Because only ETF top-10 holdings are included, actual overlap is likely somewhat higher. This layering effect means the portfolio’s fate is especially tied to a handful of mega-cap tech and chip names, even though it looks diversified on the surface.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
The factor profile shows low exposure to value, size, yield, and low volatility factors, with momentum and quality around neutral. Factors are like underlying “traits” of stocks that research suggests drive returns, such as cheapness (value) or stability (low volatility). A low value score and low yield together signal a tilt toward growthier, more expensive companies that reinvest profits rather than pay them out. Low size and low volatility exposures suggest an emphasis on larger, relatively stable names rather than smaller or more defensive plays. Neutral momentum and quality mean the portfolio behaves broadly like the market on those dimensions, without a strong tilt toward recent winners or ultra-robust balance sheets.
Risk contribution
-
Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
Weight: 35.00% 32.1% -
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 35.00% 24.1% -
Advanced Micro Devices Inc
Weight: 12.50% 23.7% -
Microsoft Corporation
Weight: 12.50% 11.0% -
Joby Aviation
Weight: 5.00% 9.1%
Risk contribution data shows that AMD and Joby punch well above their weights. AMD is 12.5% of the portfolio but contributes about 23.7% of overall volatility, and Joby’s 5% weight drives roughly 9.1% of risk. Risk contribution measures how much each position adds to the portfolio’s ups and downs, which can exceed its size if it’s especially volatile. By contrast, the broad ETFs contribute less risk than their weights would suggest, acting as stabilizers relative to the individual high-beta names. The top three positions by risk—Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF, Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF, and AMD—account for almost 80% of total portfolio volatility, highlighting how a few holdings dominate the ride.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The efficient frontier analysis shows the current portfolio sitting on or very near the frontier, indicating an efficient trade-off between risk and return given these specific holdings. The Sharpe ratio, which compares excess return to volatility, is 0.73 for the current mix, versus 0.89 for the maximum Sharpe portfolio and 0.84 for the minimum-variance one. Sharpe is like a “bang for your buck” measure for risk. The fact that the current allocation lines up closely with the frontier means its internal balance among these assets is already quite effective. Adjusting weights among the existing positions might slightly improve risk-adjusted returns, but the current configuration is not far from the best use of what’s already here.
Dividends
- Microsoft Corporation 0.80%
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.40%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.00%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.59%
The portfolio’s total dividend yield is modest at about 0.59%, with Microsoft yielding 0.8%, the NASDAQ ETF 0.4%, and the broad US ETF around 1.0%. Dividend yield is the annual cash payout as a percentage of price, and it matters most when investors want steady income. Here, the low yield reflects a focus on growth-oriented companies that tend to reinvest rather than distribute profits. In a growth-style portfolio like this, most of the expected return historically has come from price appreciation rather than dividends. That approach aligns with the heavy technology and large-cap growth tilt, where share buybacks and reinvestment are more common than high cash payouts.
Ongoing product costs
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.15%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.06%
Portfolio costs are impressively low, with a combined total expense ratio (TER) of about 0.06% from the ETFs. TER is the annual fee charged by funds, and small differences in TER can compound over time. These costs are well below many active or thematic alternatives, which often charge several times more. Keeping fees this low means that more of the underlying investments’ returns stay in the portfolio each year. The direct stock holdings do not have ongoing management fees, so once purchased, they only incur trading costs when bought or sold. Overall, the cost structure supports better long-term performance by minimizing the drag from fund expenses.
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