Concentrated US growth portfolio with strong tech tilt and standout historic returns but sizable drawdowns
Report created on May 3, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
2/5
Positions
-
VO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO - US9229083632 60.00% -
QQ Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
QQQM - US46138G6492 30.00% -
PL Palantir Technologies Inc.
PLTR - US69608A1088 10.00%
This portfolio is very focused: three holdings, all equities. Around 60% sits in a broad US large-cap index fund, 30% in a Nasdaq 100 tracker, and 10% in a single growth stock, Palantir. That structure leans heavily on US listed companies and especially large tech-related names. A concentrated lineup like this is easy to follow and understand, because each holding plays a very clear role. The flip side is that there are fewer moving parts to offset each other if one area struggles. With no bonds or alternative assets, the portfolio is fully tied to stock market ups and downs, which tends to mean stronger swings in both directions over time.
Growth
Historically, this mix has delivered very strong results. From late 2020 to May 2026, $1,000 grew to about $3,571, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.87%. CAGR is like the average speed on a road trip, smoothing out bumps along the way. That growth clearly outpaced both the US market and global market benchmarks. The trade-off was a maximum drawdown of nearly -35%, deeper than the benchmarks. Drawdown measures the worst peak‑to‑trough fall, showing how painful the ride got. It took about 16 months to recover, which is a reminder that high-return portfolios can require patience during long downturns.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection uses the past behavior of similar assets to simulate thousands of possible future paths. Think of it as rolling the dice 1,000 times to see a range of outcomes, not a prediction of one exact future. In these simulations, a $1,000 starting amount had a median outcome of $2,865 after 15 years, with a wide “likely” range between about $1,814 and $4,571. The overall average simulated annual return was 8.33%, with around three-quarters of paths ending positive. These numbers highlight both the growth potential and the uncertainty. Like any model based on history, it can’t account for totally new market environments or regime shifts.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of this portfolio is in one asset class: stocks. That makes the structure simple and tightly focused on equity growth. Asset classes are broad buckets like stocks, bonds, and cash that tend to behave differently across economic cycles. Portfolios mixing several asset classes often see smoother overall results because weakness in one area can be offset by strength in another. Here, the 100% equity allocation means the experience will track stock market cycles closely, with no built‑in “shock absorbers.” This is consistent with a growth‑oriented style, but it also means any risk management has to come from within the stock portion itself, not from other asset types.
Sectors
- Technology 46%
- Telecommunications 11%
- Consumer Discretionary 10%
- Financials 7%
- Health Care 7%
- Industrials 6%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Energy 3%
- Utilities 2%
- Basic Materials 1%
- Real Estate 1%
Sector-wise, the portfolio is dominated by technology at about 46%, with telecommunications and consumer discretionary also meaningful. Other sectors like financials, health care, industrials, and staples show up but at much lower weights. Compared with broad market benchmarks, this is a clearly tech-heavy mix. Sector allocation matters because different parts of the economy respond differently to interest rates, inflation, and business cycles. Tech- and communication-focused portfolios often do very well in innovation-driven or low-rate environments but can be more volatile when rates rise or sentiment turns against growth. The current sector split aligns with the strong past returns, but it also means performance is tied closely to the tech cycle.
Regions
- North America 99%
- Europe Developed 1%
Geographically, the portfolio is almost entirely concentrated in North America at 99%, with only a token slice in developed Europe. Geography affects not just currencies but also exposure to different economic conditions, regulations, and political risks. Global benchmarks usually spread more across regions, giving meaningful weights to other developed and emerging markets. Here, the strong US tilt has benefited from a decade of US outperformance and its deep, innovative markets. At the same time, it means little direct exposure to growth or resilience that might come from other regions if the US goes through a weaker patch compared to the rest of the world.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 53%
- Large-cap 32%
- Mid-cap 14%
By market capitalization, more than half of the portfolio is in mega-cap companies, with another third in large caps and the rest in mid caps. Market cap is basically company size, and bigger firms often have more diversified businesses and established earnings, which can make them a bit more stable than smaller names. This structure is broadly in line with major US indexes, which are also dominated by very large companies. The mid-cap slice introduces some extra growth potential and volatility, while the 10% in Palantir adds a more individual-growth flavor. Overall, the size mix is fairly mainstream, but the single-stock position stands out as a distinct, higher-risk component.
True holdings
-
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 7.34%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AA Apple Inc 6.08%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 4.62%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 3.67%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 2.87%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 2.62%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 2.44%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 2.40%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
TS Tesla Inc 2.12%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Top 10 total 44.18%
Looking through the ETFs, the top underlying exposures include well-known giants like NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Broadcom, Meta, and Tesla. Several of these appear in both ETFs, creating overlap. Overlap means the same company is being held in multiple funds, which quietly increases concentration in those names. For example, NVIDIA and Apple together already account for over 13% of the portfolio just within the top‑10 coverage. Because only ETF top‑10 holdings are visible, actual overlap is likely higher than shown. This is a common pattern in US index funds, but it’s helpful to know that owning two broad ETFs doesn’t necessarily mean twice the diversification.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
On investment factors, the portfolio shows a low tilt to value and size, a high tilt to quality, and neutral exposure to momentum, yield, and low volatility. Factors are like underlying personality traits of stocks that research ties to long-term returns. The low value and size scores mean a lean toward larger, more growth‑oriented companies rather than smaller or “cheap” ones. The high quality exposure suggests holdings with stronger balance sheets or more consistent earnings. In practice, quality tilts can help during periods of stress, as financially solid companies sometimes hold up better, while the light exposure to value and smaller stocks may mean underperformance when those areas lead.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
Weight: 60.00% 45.1% -
Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
Weight: 30.00% 30.3% -
Palantir Technologies Inc.
Weight: 10.00% 24.6%
Risk contribution shows how much each holding drives the portfolio’s overall ups and downs, which can differ from its simple weight. Here, the S&P 500 ETF is 60% of the portfolio but contributes about 45% of total risk, meaning it’s relatively stable for its size. The Nasdaq 100 ETF is 30% of the weight and about 30% of risk, roughly in line. Palantir, though, is only 10% of the portfolio yet contributes nearly 25% of total risk. That risk/weight ratio of 2.46 signals a highly volatile position. This doesn’t say whether that’s good or bad, but it highlights that most of the portfolio’s drama is coming from a relatively small slice.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The efficient frontier analysis shows that, using just these three holdings, there are alternative weightings that could offer a better balance between risk and return. The current portfolio has a Sharpe ratio of 0.88, which measures return per unit of risk above the risk‑free rate. The maximum Sharpe mix, at 1.12, would have higher risk and higher expected return, while the minimum‑variance mix would lower risk with a similar Sharpe to now. The current allocation sits about 1.6 percentage points below the frontier at its risk level. That means, in theory, simply reweighting among the same holdings could slightly improve efficiency without adding new assets.
Dividends
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.50%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.10%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.81%
Dividend yield across the portfolio is modest at about 0.81%. The S&P 500 ETF provides the higher yield at 1.10%, while the Nasdaq 100 ETF yields roughly 0.50%, and Palantir contributes more through potential price changes than dividends. Dividends are cash payments from companies, and over long periods they can be a meaningful part of total return, especially in income‑oriented portfolios. Here, the relatively low yield reflects the growth focus: many large tech and growth companies reinvest profits rather than paying them out. This setup places more of the portfolio’s return expectation on future price appreciation rather than ongoing income.
Ongoing product costs
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.15%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.06%
Costs are a clear strength. The total ongoing fee (TER) across the ETFs is about 0.06%, driven by a very low 0.03% for the S&P 500 ETF and 0.15% for the Nasdaq 100 ETF. TER, or Total Expense Ratio, is the annual percentage charged by the fund, quietly deducted inside the product. Lower costs mean investors keep more of any gains, and the difference compounds meaningfully over long periods. By using broad, low‑fee index funds, this portfolio lines up well with cost‑efficient best practices. The single stock, Palantir, doesn’t have a fund fee, though normal trading costs and bid‑ask spreads would apply when buying or selling.
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