High growth tilted stock portfolio with strong recent gains but limited history for judging long term behavior
Report created on May 10, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
-
VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 56.00% -
SC Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
SCHG - US8085243009 22.00% -
VE Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares
VEA - US9219438580 18.00% -
SP Fidelity® Government Money Market Fund
SPAXX - US31617H1023 4.00%
This portfolio is built almost entirely from broad stock index ETFs with a small stabilizing cash slice. Around 56% sits in a total US stock market fund, 22% in a US large‑cap growth ETF, 18% in developed international stocks, and about 4% in a government money market fund. So the main engine is diversified equities, with a modest non‑US component and a tiny low‑risk anchor. With only about eight months of data, the structure matters more than the short track record. Overall, this is a fairly concentrated, equity‑heavy setup that leans toward growth companies while still holding thousands of underlying stocks through the index funds.
Growth
Over the brief period shown, $1,000 grew to about $1,163, implying an annualized return (CAGR) of roughly 137%. CAGR, or compound annual growth rate, is like calculating the average speed of a car over a trip, smoothing out bumps along the way. The portfolio’s max drawdown was shallow at about -6.6%, and it slightly beat the US market but lagged the global market. Just five days explain 90% of returns, which highlights how a few strong days can dominate short windows. Because the history is only around eight months, these numbers mostly reflect a hot recent market rather than a reliable long‑term pattern.
Projection
The forward projection uses a Monte Carlo simulation, which basically means the system takes past returns and volatility, shakes them up thousands of times, and builds a range of possible futures. Here, $1,000 ends at a median of about $2,693 over 15 years, with a wide likely range between roughly $1,759 and $4,033. The annualized return across simulations is about 7.9%, and most paths finish above the starting value. However, because the historical sample is so short, the inputs are based on an unusually strong recent run. That makes these projections more fragile than usual and better read as a rough illustration than a dependable forecast.
Asset classes
- Stocks 96%
- Cash 4%
Asset‑class wise, the portfolio is very straightforward: about 96% in stocks and 4% in cash‑like holdings. That heavy stock allocation is consistent with a growth‑oriented risk profile, where most of the ups and downs come from equity markets rather than bonds or alternatives. From a diversification point of view, having almost everything in one asset class means market swings will feed directly into the account value. The 4% money market piece offers a small buffer and cash drag but doesn’t materially change the risk picture. With only months of history, this equity‑dominant mix is the main reason for the big recent returns and the potential for sharper future volatility.
Sectors
- Technology 30%
- Financials 13%
- Industrials 10%
- Consumer Discretionary 10%
- Telecommunications 10%
- Health Care 9%
- Consumer Staples 4%
- Cash 4%
- Energy 4%
- Basic Materials 3%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 2%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Sector exposure is broad but tilted. Technology stands out at about 30%, with financials, industrials, consumer discretionary, telecom, and health care each making up meaningful slices. Smaller allocations appear in staples, energy, materials, utilities, and real estate, plus the 4% cash. This spread is reasonably diversified across the economy, and the strong tech weight lines up with many modern market‑cap benchmarks. Tech‑heavy portfolios can see faster gains when growth companies are in favor, but they may also be more sensitive to interest‑rate changes or shifts in sentiment about high‑growth business models. With limited data, it’s sector structure—not recent returns—that hints at future behavior.
Regions
- North America 80%
- Europe Developed 9%
- Cash 4%
- Japan 4%
- Asia Developed 2%
- Australasia 1%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Geographically, about 80% of the portfolio is in North America, with developed Europe at 9%, Japan at 4%, other developed Asia at 2%, Australasia at 1%, and 4% in cash. This US‑heavy pattern is common for portfolios built from major index funds and aligns broadly with global market weights, though it still leans toward the domestic market. Geographic spread matters because different regions can go through their own economic cycles and policy environments. A strong North American tilt has been favorable in recent years, but it also ties a lot of the portfolio’s fate to one economy and currency. Again, eight months of data can’t fully show how these regional offsets play out.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 44%
- Large-cap 28%
- Mid-cap 17%
- Small-cap 5%
- Micro-cap 1%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
By market capitalization, the portfolio tilts strongly toward mega‑caps and large‑caps, with about 72% in those biggest companies. Mid‑caps take around 17%, while small‑caps and micro‑caps together add roughly 6%. Market cap size affects how investments behave: larger companies tend to be more established and sometimes more stable, while smaller ones can be more volatile and sensitive to economic shocks. This mix leans into the global giants that dominate index benchmarks but still keeps some exposure to the smaller, potentially more cyclical segments. Over a short eight‑month window, mega‑caps often drive most of the performance, which matches the tech and growth tilt seen elsewhere.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 6.10%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AA Apple Inc 5.38%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 3.97%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 3.09%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 2.62%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 2.26%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 2.09%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 1.88%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
TS Tesla Inc 1.77%
Part of fund(s):- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
BR Berkshire Hathaway Inc 0.76%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- Top 10 total 29.92%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Looking through the ETFs, the top underlying positions cluster heavily in a handful of big US growth names like NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Broadcom, Meta, Tesla, and Berkshire Hathaway. NVIDIA and Apple alone add up to over 11% of the portfolio when you aggregate across funds. Because only ETF top‑10 holdings are visible, overlap is probably understated; there’s likely even more repetition deeper in each fund. This kind of hidden concentration means that, despite holding broad index products, a meaningful slice of risk rides on a small group of large technology and growth companies. That helps explain strong recent gains but could amplify future swings if sentiment turns.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
On factor exposure, the portfolio shows a very low tilt to size and a high tilt to momentum. Factor exposure is like looking at the “traits” driving returns: size, value, momentum, and so on. Very low size exposure means the portfolio leans strongly away from smaller companies and toward larger ones, consistent with the mega‑cap skew. High momentum suggests a preference for stocks that have been recent winners. In trending markets, momentum tilts can boost performance, but they may suffer more when trends suddenly reverse. Value exposure is low, and yield and low volatility sit near neutral. With such a short return history, these factor readings are best treated as early snapshots rather than stable long‑term tilts.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 56.00% 51.6% -
Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 18.00% 31.5% -
Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
Weight: 22.00% 16.3% -
Fidelity® Government Money Market Fund
Weight: 4.00% 0.6%
Risk contribution looks at how much each holding adds to overall volatility, which can differ from its weight—like one loud instrument dominating an orchestra. The US total market ETF is 56% of the portfolio and contributes about 52% of risk, so its risk impact is roughly in line with its size. The developed markets ETF is 18% of the weight but contributes over 31% of total risk, showing outsized influence. The growth ETF, at 22% weight, contributes only about 16% of risk, and the money market fund barely moves the needle. Overall, the top three holdings drive more than 99% of risk, making the portfolio’s behavior highly dependent on those broad equity funds.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The risk vs. return chart shows the current portfolio sitting below the efficient frontier by about 1.8 percentage points at its current risk level. The efficient frontier represents the best possible trade‑off between risk and return using only these holdings in different weightings. The optimal portfolio on this curve has a higher Sharpe ratio—4.18 versus the current 3.85—meaning stronger risk‑adjusted returns. Sharpe ratio compares excess return to volatility, like measuring how much “reward” you get per unit of “bumpiness.” The minimum‑variance mix has much lower risk but also far lower return. Given the short performance window and unusually high recent returns, these optimization results are informative but should be seen as approximate, not precise.
Dividends
- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF 0.40%
- Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares 2.70%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.00%
- Fidelity® Government Money Market Fund 2.30%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.23%
The portfolio’s overall dividend yield is about 1.23%, with higher yields coming from the international ETF and the money market fund, while the US growth ETF yields very little. Dividend yield is the annual cash payout as a percentage of price, and it can be a meaningful part of returns over long periods, especially when reinvested. Here, most of the expected payoff is from price movement rather than income. That aligns with the growth‑oriented, tech‑tilted structure. In just eight months, dividends haven’t had much time to show their impact, so income‑related metrics are more about the underlying strategy than anything you can see clearly in the short historical performance.
Ongoing product costs
- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF 0.04%
- Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.03%
Costs are impressively low across the board. The total expense ratio (TER) averages about 0.03%, with the individual ETFs all at 0.05% or below. TER is the annual fee the fund charges, taken out of returns behind the scenes. Over long horizons, even small differences in costs can add up, but starting around three basis points is very efficient and aligns well with best‑in‑class passive investing benchmarks. Keeping expenses this low means more of any future growth stays in the portfolio rather than being eaten by fees. With limited history available, low costs are one of the few features that can be counted on to support long‑term compounding.
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