This portfolio is heavily weighted towards the stock market, with a significant emphasis on technology through the Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares, making up over 15% of the portfolio. The Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares dominate the portfolio with a 70.82% allocation, providing broad market exposure but also contributing to the portfolio's low diversification score. The Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF, while smaller in proportion, adds a focus on dividend-paying stocks. The overall diversification is classified as low, primarily due to the concentration in a single asset class (stocks) and significant exposure to the technology sector.
The portfolio has demonstrated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 15.01%, which is indicative of strong past performance. However, the maximum drawdown of -34.00% signals potential volatility and risk, particularly during market downturns. It's important to note that while these historical returns are impressive, they are not guaranteed to continue in the future. The days contributing to 90% of returns highlight the portfolio's susceptibility to short-term market movements.
Using a Monte Carlo simulation, which projects future performance based on historical data, the portfolio shows a wide range of outcomes. The median projection suggests a 689.8% return, with a high percentile outcome significantly greater. This indicates potential for substantial growth, but with a considerable variation in possible outcomes, underscoring the inherent risk. Remember, these projections are hypothetical and cannot account for unforeseen market changes.
The portfolio's allocation is entirely in stocks, with no presence in other asset classes like bonds or real estate. This singular focus enhances growth potential but also increases risk, particularly in market downturns. Diversifying across different asset classes can provide a buffer against volatility and reduce overall portfolio risk.
With 39% allocated to technology, the portfolio is significantly exposed to the performance of the tech sector. While this has likely contributed to the high historical returns, it also increases vulnerability to sector-specific downturns. Other sectors like financial services, healthcare, and consumer cyclicals provide some balance, but the heavy tech weighting is a defining feature and risk factor of this portfolio.
The geographic allocation is almost entirely focused on North America, with no exposure to developed or emerging markets outside of this region. This concentration in the U.S. market limits global diversification benefits and exposes the portfolio to country-specific economic and political risks.
The portfolio's market capitalization exposure leans heavily towards mega and big-cap companies, which can offer stability and lower volatility compared to smaller companies. However, the relatively lower allocation to small and micro-cap stocks may limit potential for outsized growth from emerging companies.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
Considering the Efficient Frontier, the portfolio may not be fully optimized for the best risk-return ratio given its low diversification and heavy tech concentration. Adjusting the asset allocation to include a broader range of asset classes and sectors could potentially enhance returns for the given level of risk or reduce risk for the current level of expected returns.
The dividend yield of the portfolio averages 1.47%, with the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF contributing a higher yield. Dividends can provide a steady income stream and contribute to total return, especially in volatile or declining markets. However, the overall yield is relatively low, reflecting the growth orientation of the portfolio.
The portfolio benefits from low total expenses, with an average Total Expense Ratio (TER) of 0.04%. This cost efficiency supports better net returns over the long term, as lower costs mean more of the investment's return is kept by the investor.
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