A highly aggressive US stock portfolio with strong tech tilt and limited global diversification

Report created on Nov 12, 2024

Risk profile Info

7/7
Speculative
Less risk More risk

Diversification profile Info

3/5
Moderately Diversified
Less diversification More diversification

Positions

The portfolio is 100% in stock ETFs with no cash or bonds and a clear tilt toward large US growth names. A big chunk sits in broad US funds while another slice layers on focused growth and sector plays, especially in tech. This structure pushes the overall risk level to the speculative end of the spectrum, which matches the risk score of 7 out of 7. That alignment is good because the internal mix is consistent with a high‑risk label. For someone who wants to dial risk down, a simpler core of broad funds plus some stability‑oriented assets could make the ride smoother without abandoning long‑term growth.

Growth Info

The reported historical Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of over 200% is almost certainly a data or calculation glitch, because real‑world portfolios rarely sustain anything close to that. The max drawdown of roughly ‑28% is more believable and shows how quickly the value can fall during rough markets. It’s helpful to think of CAGR like average speed over a road trip: good for context, but it doesn’t show potholes or traffic jams. Focusing more on the drawdowns and volatility gives a clearer picture of emotional stress. Using realistic long‑term stock growth assumptions instead of extreme backtests would give better expectations.

Projection Info

The Monte Carlo results here clearly broke: all simulated paths going to ‑100% is not realistic for a diversified stock ETF portfolio. Monte Carlo is a tool that replays many possible futures using past returns and volatility to estimate a range of outcomes, like rolling dice thousands of times. When the inputs or setup are off, the outputs become useless, as they did here. This is a good reminder that simulations are only as good as their assumptions. A more sensible projection would show a wide range of potential outcomes, with some great, some poor, and many clustered around moderate long‑term growth.

Asset classes Info

  • Stocks
    100%

All of the money is in one asset class: stocks. That single‑asset focus is consistent with a speculative profile and long time horizon, because stocks historically offer higher growth but much larger short‑term swings. The diversification score being only 3 out of 5 reflects that nothing here offsets equity risk when markets drop. This equity‑only setup is fine for someone who truly accepts big drawdowns and can stay invested through them. If the desire is to soften the worst declines, gradually layering in more defensive assets over time could help smooth the path without needing to overhaul the growth‑oriented philosophy.

Sectors Info

  • Technology
    41%
  • Consumer Discretionary
    11%
  • Financials
    10%
  • Telecommunications
    10%
  • Health Care
    8%
  • Industrials
    7%
  • Energy
    5%
  • Consumer Staples
    5%
  • Basic Materials
    2%
  • Utilities
    1%
  • Real Estate
    1%

Sector exposure is heavily tilted toward technology at 41%, plus extra growth flavor via consumer cyclicals and communication services. This is in line with many modern equity benchmarks that have become tech‑heavy, but this portfolio goes even further because of the dedicated semiconductor ETF and growth‑focused funds. That tilt can supercharge returns in boom periods, especially when innovation and low rates favor growth stocks. The flip side is extra pain when interest rates rise or when tech sentiment turns. Keeping a strong tech weight is reasonable, but trimming the most concentrated pieces could reduce the risk of one theme dominating outcomes.

Regions Info

  • North America
    94%
  • Europe Developed
    2%
  • Asia Developed
    1%
  • Asia Emerging
    1%
  • Japan
    1%

Geographic exposure is overwhelmingly in North America at 94%, with only a thin slice in other regions through the global ETF. This US‑heavy posture has worked very well over the last decade and matches what many investors naturally gravitate toward. The benefit is alignment with large, familiar companies and a strong, transparent market. The trade‑off is that economic or policy shocks specific to the US will hit almost the whole portfolio at once. Adding a bit more non‑US exposure through existing broad global holdings could slowly nudge things toward a more balanced mix while still keeping a clear US home bias.

Market capitalization Info

  • Mega-cap
    42%
  • Large-cap
    32%
  • Mid-cap
    14%
  • Small-cap
    6%
  • Micro-cap
    5%

The portfolio leans strongly toward mega and big companies, which together make up almost three‑quarters of the allocation. That’s similar to major equity benchmarks where giants dominate index weightings. There is still some exposure to medium, small, and micro caps, especially through the small cap value ETF and broad index products, which is a nice touch for diversification. Large caps typically bring more stability and liquidity, while smaller firms add return potential and extra volatility. The current blend already tilts growthy and large, so anyone wanting more “size diversification” could consider slowly increasing the share that leans into smaller companies.

Redundant positions Info

  • Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
    Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
    High correlation

Several holdings move very similarly, particularly the large‑cap growth ETF and the NASDAQ 100 ETF. Correlation is basically how often two investments go up and down together; when correlation is high, they don’t give much diversification benefit. In this portfolio, the overlap means different tickers can end up being different doors into the same group of big growth names. That’s not “bad,” but it does reduce the efficiency of diversification. Consolidating some of the most highly correlated pieces into fewer, broader funds could keep the growth exposure while simplifying the structure and freeing space for more distinct return drivers.

Risk vs. return

This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.

Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.

On a risk‑return basis, the current mix looks tilted toward higher risk than strictly necessary, given the overlap among growth‑oriented US holdings. The Efficient Frontier is the set of portfolios that deliver the most expected return for each level of volatility, using only the existing ingredients but changing how much of each is held. Here, reducing the number of overlapping growth funds and slightly boosting more diversified or value‑oriented pieces could move the portfolio closer to that “efficient” line. Efficiency in this sense is about getting better trade‑offs between risk and reward, not about chasing maximum diversification or lowest volatility alone.

Dividends Info

  • Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.60%
  • Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.50%
  • Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF 3.80%
  • Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF 0.40%
  • VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.30%
  • SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500 ETF 1.10%
  • Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 1.70%
  • Weighted yield (per year) 1.13%

The overall dividend yield of around 1.1% is on the low side, which makes sense for a growth‑tilted, tech‑heavy portfolio. One holding, the dividend equity ETF, does provide a noticeably higher yield and helps lift the income a bit. Dividends are the cash payments companies share with investors, and they can be helpful for people who want regular income or a buffer in flat markets. For an aggressive growth setup focused on long‑term appreciation, a low yield is not a problem and can actually reflect reinvestment in growth. Anyone wanting more income could gradually shift a small portion toward higher‑yielding broad equity funds.

Ongoing product costs Info

  • Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
  • Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.15%
  • Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF 0.06%
  • Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF 0.04%
  • VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.35%
  • SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500 ETF 0.02%
  • Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.07%
  • Weighted costs total (per year) 0.10%

The total expense ratio (TER) of about 0.10% is impressively low for an all‑ETF lineup, especially given the presence of more specialized funds. TER is like an annual membership fee charged as a percentage of assets; the lower it is, the more of the return stays in your pocket. Keeping costs this low strongly supports compounding over decades and matches best practices seen in many model portfolios. The only relatively pricey piece is the sector‑specific ETF, but even that is not extreme. Periodically checking for cheaper alternatives with similar exposure is sensible, though there is no urgent cost issue here at all.

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