Mostly the S&P 500 with a side of FOMO and a very expensive Bitcoin garnish
Report created on May 27, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
-
VO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO - US9229083632 50.00% -
SC Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
SCHG - US8085243009 20.00% -
AV Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 10.00% -
VX Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
VXUS - US9219097683 10.00% -
GB Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC)
GBTC - US3896371099 5.00% -
US iShares Core U.S. REIT ETF
USRT - US4642885218 3.00% -
CS CSX Corporation
CSX - US1264081035 2.00%
This portfolio is basically the S&P 500 with accessories. Half the money is in a broad US index, then another 20% piled into large-cap growth that mostly just rehashes the same mega-cap names. Sprinkle in 10% small-cap value, 10% international, a novelty 5% Bitcoin chunk, a tiny REIT slice, and a random 2% single stock and you’re done. It looks diversified on paper but feels like someone kept adding “one more tweak” without a real plan. The structure screams “core US index, then vibes.” It works, but it’s hardly a thought-through architecture — more like a good base with several impulse buys taped around it.
Growth
Historically, this Frankenstein mix has actually crushed it: ~$1,000 grew to ~$2,934, beating both the US and global markets by a solid margin. CAGR of 17.6% is spicy, but the -35.7% max drawdown reminds you this thing can still punch you in the face when markets panic. And 90% of returns came from just 25 days — miss those and the chart looks a lot less heroic. Past returns are like bragging about last season’s fantasy team: entertaining, not predictive. The portfolio rode a perfect storm of US mega-cap dominance and growth mania; assuming that keeps repeating forever is where optimism turns into wishful thinking.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection basically says, “Yeah, the party might continue, but don’t get too cocky.” From $1,000, the median outcome after 15 years is ~$2,878 — way less impressive than the backtest — with a very wide range from “barely above your starting point” to “nice champagne numbers.” Monte Carlo is just a thousand alternate-universe timelines based on past volatility and returns; helpful, but still just math fan fiction. The 75.8% chance of a positive outcome is decent, but that also means a roughly one-in-four shot of being flat or worse. This portfolio’s future looks okay, just nowhere near as glamorous as its recent highlight reel.
Asset classes
- Stocks 92%
- Crypto 5%
- Real Estate 3%
Asset-class-wise, this is 92% stocks, 5% crypto, 3% real estate — basically one big equity bet with a crypto side quest. Calling this “growth” is fair; calling it “diversified” is generous. Almost everything here lives and dies by equity market sentiment. If stocks sneeze, the whole thing catches pneumonia, and Bitcoin certainly isn’t your safety blanket. The tiny REIT allocation is too small to matter much, more decoration than design. The general story: this portfolio is set up to surf equity bull markets, not to dampen the ride. Anyone expecting it to behave like a balanced mix is reading the wrong brochure.
Sectors
- Technology 30%
- Financials 12%
- Industrials 10%
- Consumer Discretionary 10%
- Telecommunications 9%
- Health Care 7%
- Crypto 5%
- Real Estate 4%
- Energy 4%
- Consumer Staples 4%
- Basic Materials 2%
- Utilities 2%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Sector breakdown: tech at 30% is running the show, with the usual supporting cast in financials, industrials, and consumer areas. This is what happens when you stack US broad market plus US growth — you end up mainlining the same tech and communication names whether you meant to or not. Crypto at 5% just adds extra drama, not diversification. The allocation doesn’t look absurd on paper, but tech clearly has its hands on the steering wheel. If that sector decides to take a decade off from being amazing, the overall portfolio isn’t exactly built to compensate elsewhere. It’s riding current winners, not balancing across very different economic engines.
Regions
- North America 85%
- Europe Developed 4%
- Asia Developed 2%
- Japan 2%
- Asia Emerging 1%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Geographically, this is “USA or bust” with 85% in North America and a token 10% in international equities plus a few scattered percentages in developed and emerging regions. The global market exists mostly as a cameo. That works brilliantly when the US dominates, which it has, but it’s also a strong bet that the future looks like the last decade. This isn’t global diversification; it’s a US portfolio that lets a tiny amount of foreign capital sit in the corner. If other regions outperform for a stretch, this setup will watch from the sidelines and clap politely instead of participating meaningfully.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 40%
- Large-cap 28%
- Mid-cap 15%
- Small-cap 7%
- Micro-cap 5%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
The market-cap mix is heavily tilted to the giants: 40% mega-cap, 28% large-cap, with the rest trickling into mid, small, and a modest 5% micro-cap. That small-cap value fund is doing what it can, but the mega-caps are clearly in charge. This is classic “index plus a bit of spice” construction — the spice just isn’t strong enough to change the main flavor. It’s fine if the goal is to ride big, liquid names, but let’s not pretend it’s a bold small-cap adventure. When the elephants move, the portfolio moves; the mice in small and micro just squeak in the background.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 6.27%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AA Apple Inc 5.19%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 3.82%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 3.25%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 2.81%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 2.46%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 2.23%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 1.76%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
TS Tesla Inc 1.64%
Part of fund(s):- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Top 10 total 31.43%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
The look-through holdings basically reveal a shrine to the Magnificent Everything: NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet (twice), Broadcom, Meta, Tesla — all stacked across multiple ETFs. The same handful of companies show up again and again, creating hidden concentration behind the illusion of diversification. On paper there are several funds; under the hood it’s a mega-cap tech-and-friends fan club. CSX is the only single-name outlier, and even that’s just 2%. Coverage is only ~37% of the portfolio due to top-10 limits, so real overlap is probably worse. This isn’t a broad mosaic; it’s the same poster repeated on different walls.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
Factor-wise, the portfolio is hilariously “accidentally reasonable.” Everything sits around neutral — value, size, momentum, quality, yield, low volatility all hovering near market-like exposure. That means no strong bets on cheap vs expensive, fast vs slow, or boring vs exciting; the factor profile is basically “shrug.” For a portfolio that looks so opinionated on US, tech, and crypto, the underlying style is surprisingly balanced. It’s like someone went wild with tickers but still ended up with a factor mix suspiciously close to a standard global equity blend. There’s nothing particularly clever or disastrous here — just very average factor seasoning.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
Weight: 50.00% 46.4% -
Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
Weight: 20.00% 21.6% -
Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 10.00% 11.0% -
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC)
Weight: 5.00% 8.9% -
Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 10.00% 7.8% - Top 5 risk contribution 95.6%
Risk contribution reveals who’s actually driving the roller coaster. The S&P 500 ETF at 50% weight contributes about 46% of total risk, so it’s behaving as expected. The large-cap growth and small-cap value together bring the top three to almost 79% of portfolio risk, which tracks with their size. The real troublemaker is Bitcoin: 5% weight, nearly 9% of total risk, and a risk/weight ratio of 1.79 — a tiny position making a lot of noise. The international fund is comparatively mellow, under-pulling on risk. Net result: one giant core, a couple of amplifiers, and a volatile crypto mascot punching far above its pay grade.
Redundant positions
-
High correlationVanguard S&P 500 ETFSchwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
Correlation-wise, the red flag is obvious: the S&P 500 ETF and the large-cap growth ETF move almost identically. That means 70% of the portfolio is basically riding the same US large-cap wave, just with slightly different branding. High correlation isn’t evil, but it does make the “diversified ETF stack” look more like a costume change than a new character. In a real market downturn, those two are falling together, not taking turns. The portfolio doesn’t have many pieces truly marching to different drums; it has multiple angles on the same theme. When the main story goes bad, almost everything here is reading from the same sad script.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the efficient frontier, this portfolio is actually doing its homework. Sharpe ratio around 0.72 and sitting on or very close to the frontier means, for the chosen ingredients, the risk–return tradeoff is pretty efficient. The optimizer suggests you could dial things to a higher-return, higher-risk version or a gentler low-variance mix, but at this risk level you’re not leaving obvious free performance on the table. So yes, structurally it’s efficient — just efficiently concentrated in US equities, growth-heavy, with a noise-making Bitcoin sidecar. It’s like a well-tuned car aimed straight down one highway: the route is narrow, but the engineering of the ride itself is solid.
Dividends
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.30%
- CSX Corporation 1.10%
- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF 0.40%
- iShares Core U.S. REIT ETF 2.60%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.00%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 2.70%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.08%
The yield here is a modest 1.08%, which is barely a side hustle. With growth-heavy US exposure and some international plus REITs, this portfolio clearly isn’t trying to impress on income. The REIT and international holdings try to lift the average a bit, but the overall result is “don’t quit your day job.” This setup is all about capital gains, not regular cash flow. Dividends are more of a side effect than a design feature. Anyone expecting this mix to act like an income machine is going to be very disappointed when the quarterly payouts show up and look more like tip money than rent coverage.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC) 1.50%
- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF 0.04%
- iShares Core U.S. REIT ETF 0.08%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.13%
Costs are the one place this portfolio behaves like a grown-up. A total TER of 0.13% is refreshingly low — especially with big cheap index ETFs doing the heavy lifting. Then there’s the 1.50% fee on the Bitcoin trust, which sticks out like a sore, expensive thumb. It’s the equivalent of buying discount groceries and then splurging on one wildly overpriced luxury snack. Overall, the fee drag is kept in check by the large, low-cost positions, but that crypto slice is definitely charging VIP prices for standing in the same volatile line as everyone else. Still, as a whole, fee control here is surprisingly competent.
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