The portfolio is composed of six ETFs, with a significant allocation to the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF at 50%. Other notable positions include Avantis U.S. Small Cap Value ETF, Fidelity MSCI Financials Index ETF, SPDR S&P MIDCAP 400 ETF Trust, Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF, and Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF. This composition shows a strong preference for U.S. equities, with a moderate level of diversification across different market segments and sectors.
Historically, the portfolio has performed well, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.56%. However, it has experienced significant volatility, with a maximum drawdown of -36.64%. This means that while the portfolio has the potential for strong returns, it also comes with a considerable level of risk. The days that make up 90% of returns being only 13 indicates that the portfolio's performance is driven by a few key periods.
Using a Monte Carlo simulation with 1,000 runs, the portfolio's future performance was analyzed. This method uses random sampling to predict future outcomes based on historical data. The simulation shows a wide range of potential outcomes, with a 5th percentile end value of 33.92% and a 67th percentile end value of 885%. The median (50th percentile) outcome is 568.07%, with an overall annualized return of 17.42%. This suggests a high probability of positive returns but also highlights the inherent risk.
The portfolio is heavily weighted towards stocks, with 99.57% in equities and minimal allocations to cash and other assets. This high concentration in equities is typical for a growth-focused portfolio but also increases exposure to market volatility. Diversifying into other asset classes, such as bonds, could help mitigate risk and provide more stability, especially during market downturns.
Sector allocation is skewed towards Technology (28.67%) and Financial Services (22.06%), with smaller allocations to Consumer Cyclicals, Industrials, and Healthcare. This concentration in tech and financial sectors can lead to higher returns during market upswings but also increases vulnerability to sector-specific downturns. A more balanced sector allocation could reduce risk and provide more consistent performance across different economic conditions.
Geographically, the portfolio is predominantly invested in North America (89.86%), with limited exposure to other regions like Europe Developed, Japan, and Emerging Asia. This heavy focus on the U.S. market can be beneficial when the U.S. economy is strong but may limit growth opportunities in other regions. Increasing international diversification could help capture global growth and reduce geographic risk.
Dividend yield data is not provided, but given the portfolio's focus on growth stocks, the yield is likely to be modest. Growth stocks typically reinvest earnings into the business rather than paying out high dividends. Investors seeking regular income might want to consider adding dividend-paying stocks or ETFs to balance growth with income.
The portfolio's total expense ratio (TER) is 0.09%, which is relatively low and beneficial for long-term returns. Lower costs mean more of the portfolio's returns are retained by the investor. This low-cost structure is a positive aspect of the portfolio, making it more efficient and cost-effective over time.
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