The risk profile, derived from past market volatility, reflects the level of risk the portfolio is exposed to. This assessment helps align your investments with your financial goals and comfort with market fluctuations.
The diversification assessment evaluates the spread of investments across asset classes, regions, and sectors. This ensures a balanced mix, reducing risk and maximizing returns by not concentrating in any single area.
The portfolio is mostly growth-focused, with about 89% in stocks, 10% in muni bonds, and 1% in cash. Within stocks, broad U.S. and international index ETFs dominate, complemented by targeted small-cap value funds in the U.S., international, and emerging markets. This mix blends simple core indexing with a more intentional “tilt” toward smaller and cheaper companies. Structurally, that’s a classic core-and-satellite setup: broad low-cost core holdings with focused satellites for added return potential. For someone aiming for long-term growth while keeping a moderate risk profile, this is a solid, broadly diversified starting point that leans clearly toward equities but still includes a stabilizing bond sleeve.
From late 2021 to early 2026, the portfolio grew a hypothetical $1,000 to $1,461, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.65%. CAGR is the “average speed” of growth per year over the full period. That’s slightly behind the U.S. market benchmark (11.41% CAGR) but a touch ahead of the global market (9.47% CAGR). Max drawdown, the largest peak-to-trough drop, was about -24%, very similar to the benchmarks. This suggests the portfolio delivered competitive global-like returns with benchmark-level downside. Still, this is a short, unusual period; future results can be very different, especially if factor tilts move in or out of favor.
The Monte Carlo projection uses the portfolio’s past risk and return pattern to simulate 1,000 alternate futures for the next 10 years. Think of it as “rolling the dice” many times using historically informed odds, then seeing the range of possible outcomes. Median results show roughly a tripling of capital over 10 years, while the 5th percentile still has a modest gain around 13%. Importantly, 967 out of 1,000 runs ended positive, reflecting a growth-tilted but diversified mix. However, simulations lean heavily on past behavior; if markets or factor returns change dramatically, real outcomes can land outside this range. Treat it as a planning guide, not a promise.
Asset allocation is strongly equity-led: 89% in stocks, 10% in municipal bonds, and a small 1% in cash. For a “balanced” risk profile, this skews toward the growthier side, which fits someone with a fairly long horizon and tolerance for volatility. The muni bond slice offers some ballast and potential tax benefits, but its modest size means equity swings will still drive most ups and downs. Compared with a textbook 60/40 portfolio, this is more aggressive, yet still far from an all-equity posture. If desired, adjusting the bond allocation up or down is the cleanest lever to fine-tune risk without disrupting the portfolio’s underlying factor tilts.
Sector exposure is nicely spread across 11 major areas, with technology around 20%, financials 16%, industrials 12%, and consumer cyclicals 10%. Healthcare, communication services, energy, materials, consumer defensive, utilities, and real estate all have smaller but meaningful weights. This sector mix looks quite similar to broad global indices, which is a strong indicator of diversification. The modest tech tilt means performance will still be somewhat sensitive to growth and interest rate cycles, but not overwhelmingly so. Having multiple sectors above small single-digit weights reduces the risk that one industry’s downturn dominates total returns, helping smooth the ride over full market cycles.
Geographically, about 57% of equity exposure is in North America, with the rest spread across developed Europe and Asia, Japan, emerging Asia, Africa/Middle East, Australasia, and Latin America. That’s reasonably close to free-float global market weights, where the U.S. is dominant but not overwhelming. This allocation is well-balanced and aligns closely with global standards, which helps avoid the common home-country bias many investors fall into. Meaningful emerging and non-U.S. developed exposure supports diversification across economic cycles, currencies, and policy regimes. The trade-off is occasionally lagging the U.S. market during periods of U.S. outperformance, but gaining from global leadership when other regions shine.
The portfolio holds companies across the size spectrum: roughly 31% mega-cap, 23% large, 17% mid, 11% small, and 6% micro. Compared with a pure market-cap index, that’s a noticeable tilt toward smaller companies, driven by the dedicated small-cap value ETFs. Size diversification matters because small and mid caps often behave differently from mega-caps, sometimes lagging during risk-off periods but historically offering higher return potential over the long haul. This spread also reduces dependence on just a handful of global giants. Expect somewhat bumpier ride from the small and micro segments, but also more differentiated performance across economic environments.
Looking through the ETFs, the largest indirect positions are familiar mega-cap names like NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Broadcom, Tesla, and Taiwan Semiconductor. None are held directly; they come through the broad index funds. This overlap is normal for cap-weighted equity funds and shows that big global leaders still drive a meaningful slice of performance. Because overlap is based only on ETF top-10 holdings, real concentration is somewhat higher than reported. The positive side: exposure to world-leading businesses. The trade-off: these giants can dominate short-term returns, so periods when large growth stocks cool off may tug on overall performance even with your added value tilts.
Factor exposure shows strong tilts toward value, size (smaller companies), and yield, with moderate momentum and low-volatility characteristics. Factor exposure describes how much a portfolio leans into traits like cheapness, size, or quality that research has linked to long-term returns. Here, the dominant value and size signals come from the Avantis funds, while the broad index funds keep the profile from becoming too extreme. This mix typically does well when cheaper and smaller companies outperform glamorous growth names but can lag during big tech or momentum-led rallies. Signal coverage is incomplete, so numbers aren’t perfect, but the direction is clear: a deliberate small/value style leaning layered on a diversified core.
Risk contribution shows how much each holding adds to the portfolio’s overall volatility, which can differ from simple weights. Think of it as identifying which instruments are “loudest” in the orchestra. The total U.S. stock ETF is 45% of the portfolio but contributes roughly 52% of risk, while the international ETF is more aligned (25% weight, ~25% risk). The U.S. small-cap value ETF is 10% weight but about 13% of risk, reflecting higher volatility in small value stocks. The top three positions together drive nearly 90% of risk, even though they represent 80% of capital. Periodic rebalancing can help keep this risk balance aligned with your comfort zone.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the risk–return chart, the current portfolio sits directly on the efficient frontier, meaning that given these specific holdings, the risk/return mix is already efficient. The efficient frontier represents the best achievable return for each risk level using different weight combinations. The current Sharpe ratio (return per unit of risk) is about 0.52, while the mathematically “optimal” mix on the frontier has a higher Sharpe of 0.77 but also higher expected risk and return. In other words, there is a more aggressive configuration with better risk-adjusted stats, but your present balance already uses the ingredients well. Any changes would be about shifting risk appetite, not fixing inefficiency.
The overall dividend yield is around 2.1%, coming from a mix of equity and muni bond income. International and emerging value funds yield over 3%, the muni ETF also around 3.2%, while the broad U.S. market ETF yields closer to 1.2%. That’s a reasonable middle ground: enough income to contribute meaningfully to total return without turning this into a pure income strategy. For long-term growth investors, reinvested dividends can be a quiet compounder, steadily buying more shares over time. For future flexibility, a yield around this level also offers the option to fund some spending needs later without having to sell as many shares in down markets.
Total portfolio costs are impressively low at about 0.09% per year, thanks to very cheap Vanguard index ETFs and still reasonably priced Avantis factor funds. TER (total expense ratio) is like a yearly membership fee you pay to own each fund. Keeping this number low is one of the few “free lunches” in investing, since every dollar not spent on fees stays working for you. Your cost level is meaningfully below what many investors pay for active funds or advisory products, which strongly supports better long-term performance. There isn’t much to squeeze here; from a fee perspective, this setup is already in excellent shape.
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