Concentrated US equity portfolio with strong recent returns and modest diversification beyond large growth names
Report created on Apr 11, 2026Risk profile
- Secure Speculative
The risk profile, derived from past market volatility, reflects the level of risk the portfolio is exposed to. This assessment helps align your investments with your financial goals and comfort with market fluctuations.
Diversification profile
- Focused Diversified
The diversification assessment evaluates the spread of investments across asset classes, regions, and sectors. This ensures a balanced mix, reducing risk and maximizing returns by not concentrating in any single area.
Positions
-
VO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO - US9229083632 50.00% -
AV Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 20.00% -
QQ Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
QQQM - US46138G6492 20.00% -
AV Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF
AVDV - US0250728021 10.00%
The portfolio is a pure equity mix built from four ETFs, all invested in stocks. Half sits in a broad large‑cap US index, while the rest tilts toward US small‑cap value, US mega‑cap growth, and a slice of international small‑cap value. This structure blends “core” broad exposure with satellite tilts that try to capture smaller and cheaper companies plus big growth leaders. Being 100% in stocks means higher long‑term growth potential but also sharper ups and downs, especially compared with a mix that includes bonds or cash. A key takeaway is that the design is growth‑oriented but still keeps a diversified core rather than betting everything on a single niche.
Growth
From late 2020 to early 2026, $1,000 grew to $2,278, giving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.25%. CAGR is like your average speed on a long road trip, smoothing out the bumps along the way. That beats both a broad US market proxy and the global market by a clear margin, showing the tilts have helped in this period. The maximum drawdown of about -25% was similar to the US market, meaning the downside shocks were not unusually severe. It took around 14 months to fully recover, which is normal for equity‑heavy portfolios. Still, past performance only shows what worked in this specific environment and can easily look different in the next cycle.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection uses thousands of simulated paths based on historical return and volatility patterns to estimate a range of possible futures. It shows a median outcome of about $2,791 from $1,000 over 15 years, with a likely middle range roughly between $1,759 and $4,383. Monte Carlo is like running many “what if” scenarios with dice weighted by past data; it doesn’t predict a single future. The 72.6% chance of a positive outcome highlights that staying invested over long horizons is usually rewarded, but the wide range up to $8,275 and down to near the starting value reminds that equities can deviate a lot from the median path.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of the money is in stocks, with no allocation to bonds, cash, or alternatives. That’s simple and easy to understand, and it aligns with a growth‑focused mindset that wants long‑term appreciation rather than stability or income. Equities historically offer higher returns than bonds, but they also experience deeper drawdowns and longer recovery times. In typical “balanced” allocations, investors often mix in bonds to dampen volatility and provide dry powder during crashes. Here, the moderate risk score reflects that the diversification is within stocks, not across asset classes. Anyone using a setup like this usually needs a long horizon and the emotional tolerance for big swings.
Sectors
- Technology 29%
- Consumer Discretionary 13%
- Financials 13%
- Industrials 10%
- Telecommunications 9%
- Health Care 7%
- Energy 7%
- Consumer Staples 6%
- Basic Materials 4%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 1%
Sector exposure leans heavily toward technology at 29%, with meaningful allocations to consumer discretionary and financials, and smaller slices across the rest. This is reasonably diversified by sector, but there’s a clear overweight to tech compared with many broad global benchmarks. Tech‑heavy mixes tend to be more sensitive to interest rates, innovation cycles, and sentiment around growth stocks. They can outperform strongly when growth leadership persists, as it has recently, but may be hit harder during periods of rising rates or when investors rotate toward more defensive areas. On the positive side, there is at least some representation in every major sector, which helps cushion very sector‑specific shocks.
Regions
- North America 90%
- Europe Developed 4%
- Japan 3%
- Australasia 1%
- Africa/Middle East 1%
Geographically, about 90% of the exposure is in North America, with only modest positions in Europe, Japan, Australasia, and Africa/Middle East. That’s a strong home‑bias typical of many US‑based investors and has been rewarded over the past decade as US stocks outperformed much of the world. The flip side is that results are tied very closely to the US economy, policy, and currency. When the US leads, this can look great; if leadership shifts abroad, the portfolio may lag more globally diversified mixes. The small international small‑cap value slice introduces useful diversification, but it’s not large enough to offset the dominant US tilt.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 33%
- Large-cap 25%
- Mid-cap 17%
- Small-cap 15%
- Micro-cap 9%
Market‑cap exposure is spread across the spectrum: roughly one‑third in mega‑caps, a quarter in large‑caps, and the rest in mid, small, and even micro‑caps. This is a notable strength. Many investors end up almost entirely in mega‑ and large‑caps without realizing it. Smaller companies can add growth potential and reduce dependence on a handful of giants, but they’re also more volatile and can underperform for long stretches. By mixing sizes, the portfolio taps into different parts of the corporate life cycle. The presence of micro‑caps suggests a willingness to embrace some higher‑risk, less‑researched names, which can be rewarding but is not for those seeking very smooth rides.
True holdings
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NV NVIDIA Corporation 5.39%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AA Apple Inc 4.84%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 3.59%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 2.65%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 2.24%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 1.88%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 1.88%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 1.88%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
TS Tesla Inc 1.67%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
BR Berkshire Hathaway Inc 0.79%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Top 10 total 26.81%
Looking through the ETFs, a lot of exposure clusters in a handful of mega‑cap growth names: Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Tesla, and Broadcom together already sum to a sizeable slice. They appear mainly through the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 ETFs, which overlap heavily at the top. That overlap means there is more concentration in those companies than the four‑ETF count suggests. Because only top‑10 holdings are included, the true overlap is probably higher. The practical takeaway is that a few big US tech‑related names will strongly influence outcomes, for better when they lead and for worse if they stumble.
Factors
Factor exposure is essentially market‑like across all six dimensions: value, size, momentum, quality, yield, and low volatility are all in the neutral band. Factors are like the underlying “flavors” that explain why certain stocks behave the way they do. A neutral reading means there’s no strong tilt toward cheap vs. expensive, small vs. large, or stable vs. volatile beyond what the broad market already has. That’s actually a positive sign of balance: the portfolio is not overly reliant on one specific style, which can suffer when its particular theme falls out of favor. Instead, it should behave broadly like an equity market blend, with idiosyncratic tilts coming from its specific ETFs rather than extreme factor bets.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
Weight: 50.00% 46.5% -
Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
Weight: 20.00% 23.1% -
Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 20.00% 22.5% -
Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 10.00% 7.9%
Risk contribution shows how much each holding drives the portfolio’s overall ups and downs, which can differ from its weight. Here, the S&P 500 ETF is 50% of the capital and contributes about 46% of the risk, so it behaves in line with its size. The Nasdaq 100 and US small‑cap value ETFs together are 40% of the weight but about 45% of the risk, reflecting their higher volatility. The international small‑cap value slice actually contributes a bit less risk than its weight. The top three holdings driving over 92% of total risk means the overall behavior is largely decided by those pieces. Periodic rebalancing or adjusting sizes can be used to keep any one risk engine from becoming dominant over time.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The efficient frontier analysis compares your current mix with the best possible combinations of these same four ETFs. The current portfolio has a Sharpe ratio of 0.73, while the max‑Sharpe mix is 1.04 and the minimum‑variance mix is 0.99. The Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk, like getting more miles per gallon from the same tank. Being about 2.5 percentage points below the frontier at the same risk level means the existing weights are leaving some efficiency on the table. In plain terms, just reshuffling between the four ETFs — without adding anything new — could either reduce volatility for the same return or increase expected return without taking on extra overall risk.
Dividends
- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 2.80%
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.30%
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.50%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.10%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.19%
The overall dividend yield is around 1.19%, with the international small‑cap value ETF offering the highest yield and the Nasdaq 100 ETF the lowest. Dividends are the cash payments companies share with investors, and they can be a meaningful part of long‑term returns, especially when reinvested. In this setup, the focus is clearly on total return rather than income; the yield is modest compared with more income‑oriented portfolios. For investors who don’t need regular cash flow, that’s fine and can even be tax‑efficient in some cases. Those seeking higher ongoing income, though, should recognize that any withdrawals would mostly come from selling shares rather than from dividends alone.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 0.36%
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.15%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.13%
The weighted total expense ratio (TER) of about 0.13% per year is impressively low. TER is the annual fee you pay to the fund manager, baked into the fund price, a bit like a small maintenance fee on your account. Keeping costs low is one of the few levers investors can reliably control, and shaving even a fraction of a percent can compound into a noticeable difference over decades. The use of a very low‑cost S&P 500 ETF as the core and only slightly higher‑fee factor‑oriented satellites is a smart structure. From a cost perspective, this portfolio is on very solid ground and well aligned with best practices for long‑term investing.
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