Momentum junkie portfolio with a semiconductor obsession and a dividend garnish for respectability
Report created on May 20, 2026Risk profile
6/7
Diversification profile
2/5
Positions
-
SM VanEck Semiconductor ETF
SMH - US92189F6768 50.00% -
SP Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
SPMO - US46138E3392 35.00% -
SC Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF
SCHD - US8085247976 15.00%
This portfolio is basically a shrine to one idea: “chips go up.” Half the money is in a semiconductor ETF, over a third in a momentum ETF, and a token 15% in a dividend fund to make it look mature on paper. Calling the diversification “low” is generous; this is three flavors of US equity beta with different marketing labels. Structurally, it’s like building a three-legged stool where two legs are the same length and the third is decorative. The result is a portfolio that looks complex enough to impress a friend, but under the hood it’s just one big levered bet on growthy US stocks with a polite dividend chaperone.
Growth
Historically, this thing didn’t just beat the market; it lapped it. A $1,000 stake turned into about $13,157, with a 33.48% CAGR versus around 17% for the US market and 14% globally. That’s superhero territory. The catch: you had to stomach a near -37% drawdown and just 52 days created 90% of total returns. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is like your average speed on a wild road trip; this trip hit great speeds but with some nasty crashes. The message: the payoff has been huge, but it’s dangerously dependent on a small handful of euphoric days not going missing.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection throws some cold water on the glory days. Monte Carlo just means running thousands of “what if” futures using past volatility and return patterns, like rolling financial dice 1,000 times. Median outcome: $1,000 becomes about $2,628 over 15 years, with a wide “maybe” band from roughly $951 to $7,416. Average simulated return of 7.74% is miles below the backward-looking 33.48% fantasy. It’s yesterday’s rocket story feeding a more normal tomorrow. Past performance here is like a highlight reel cut from a single lucky season; the simulations remind that gravity eventually reads the script.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
Asset class breakdown: 100% stocks, 0% anything else. This isn’t an allocation; it’s an all-in bet on the equity casino. No bonds, no cash buffer, no alternatives — just pure exposure to market mood swings. In asset-class terms, this is the financial equivalent of drinking espresso for hydration. It can work, but no one’s pretending it’s balanced. That explains the aggressive risk label: there is literally nothing here whose job is to stay calm when markets freak out. When stocks sneeze, this portfolio catches pneumonia because there’s nothing else in the room.
Sectors
- Technology 71%
- Industrials 6%
- Health Care 5%
- Consumer Staples 4%
- Telecommunications 4%
- Energy 3%
- Financials 3%
- Consumer Discretionary 1%
- Basic Materials 1%
Sector view: 71% technology. That’s not a tilt; that’s an identity crisis. The rest is a sprinkling of industrials, health care, staples, telecom, energy, financials, and a token bit of discretionary and materials just so the pie chart has more than one color. Compared with broad indexes, this thing is tech on steroids. Sector risk 101: when the favorite theme goes out of style, everything tied to it gets dragged, no matter how “high quality” or “innovative” the components sound. Here, the sector lineup basically says, “If tech catches a cold, we’re getting the full flu.”
Regions
- North America 92%
- Asia Developed 5%
- Europe Developed 2%
Geographically, this is a homebody: 92% North America, with a tiny side quest into developed Asia (5%) and Europe (2%). For a world where more than half of global equity value sits outside the US, this setup is basically “USA or bust.” That’s great when US markets lead, less fun if leadership rotates elsewhere. It’s like insisting all good music comes from one city; sometimes true for a while, never true forever. The foreign slice is too small to matter in a crash and too small to fully benefit if non-US regions finally get their turn in the sun.
Market capitalization
- Large-cap 49%
- Mega-cap 41%
- Mid-cap 9%
- Small-cap 1%
Market-cap breakdown: about 90% in mega and large caps, with mid caps as a sideshow and small caps barely on the invite list. So despite all the spice in sectors and factors, the size profile is very mainstream. This is a blue-chip-heavy thrill ride, not a scrappy small-cap adventure. That means big-name companies dominate the behavior, which explains why the same mega-cap darlings pop up everywhere. The upside: less pure chaos than a tiny-cap gamble. The downside: when the giants move together — especially in tech — this portfolio just goes wherever the herd of elephants decides to run.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 12.12%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 6.35%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 6.19%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
TS Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing 4.88%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
IN Intel Corporation 4.75%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc 4.65%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
TX Texas Instruments Incorporated 3.39%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
LR Lam Research Corp 3.30%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
QC Qualcomm Incorporated 3.03%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
AD Analog Devices Inc 2.13%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- Top 10 total 50.79%
The look-through holdings reveal the real punchline: this is basically a love letter to a handful of chip names. NVIDIA alone is over 12%, then Broadcom, Micron, TSMC, Intel, AMD, Texas Instruments, Lam Research, Qualcomm, Analog Devices — all stacked on top of each other via ETFs. That’s not diversification, that’s a fan club. And remember, this is only from ETF top-10 data, so overlap is probably even worse under the hood. When the same companies appear in multiple wrappers, it feels like different funds, but the economic exposure is “please don’t let semiconductors have a bad decade.”
Factors
Factor profile screams momentum junkie with a mild allergy to value and yield. Momentum at 62% (high) means the portfolio loves what’s been working recently — like always picking the song at the top of the charts. Value at 32% and yield at 38% both show a lean away from cheap or income-generating stuff. Low volatility is also low, so there’s no built-in stabilizer here. Factors are the hidden ingredients — this mix says “chase winners, ignore bargains, forget calm, dividends are optional.” When momentum reverses, that combo can turn from rocket fuel into a faceplant surprisingly fast.
Risk contribution
-
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
Weight: 50.00% 65.8% -
Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
Weight: 35.00% 26.6% -
Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF
Weight: 15.00% 7.7%
Risk contribution lays bare who’s actually driving the drama. The semiconductor ETF is 50% of the weight but a massive 65.75% of total risk — that’s the loud friend at the party drowning everyone else out. The momentum ETF pulls 35% weight and ~27% of risk, while the dividend ETF is 15% weight and just under 8% of risk, quietly minding its business. Risk contribution shows which holdings hog the volatility spotlight; here, one single ETF is doing far more than its share. Stability isn’t coming from some clever offset — it’s coming from hoping that one bet doesn’t misfire.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the efficient frontier, this portfolio is actually…competent. The current setup sits on or very near the frontier, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.03. The max-Sharpe version gets to 1.15, but only by taking even more risk (31.62% volatility) and chasing higher returns around 37.28%. The minimum variance version dials risk down to 17.5% but also slashes return. The efficient frontier is just the curve of best possible return for each risk level using the same ingredients; here, the ingredients are wild, but the mixing is surprisingly efficient for the chosen level of crazy.
Dividends
- Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF 3.30%
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.20%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.70%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.84%
Dividend yield for the whole portfolio is a measly 0.84%, which is barely more than a rounding error. The Schwab dividend ETF tries to drag that number up with around 3.3% yield, but at only 15% weight it’s like sprinkling parmesan on a plate of pure growth stocks and calling it “income-focused.” Semis yield almost nothing, momentum stocks aren’t picked for their generosity either, so income is clearly an afterthought. If dividends are supposed to provide a smoother ride or some psychological comfort, this setup is more “tip jar” than “steady paycheck.”
Ongoing product costs
- Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF 0.06%
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.35%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.23%
Total expense ratio of 0.23% is actually pretty reasonable for a portfolio this spicy. The dividend ETF is dirt cheap at 0.06%, the momentum fund is modest at 0.13%, and the semiconductor ETF is the priciest at 0.35% — not shocking given the niche focus. Fees are under control; you didn’t completely donate performance to management companies by accident. Still, paying extra for the privilege of concentrating in the same handful of semiconductor names through multiple wrappers is a bit like paying a cover charge to stand in the same crowded bar all night.
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