This portfolio primarily consists of ETFs targeting large-cap, momentum, and tech sectors, with a significant allocation towards U.S. equities. The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF, and Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF collectively make up 70% of the portfolio, indicating a strong lean towards large-cap and tech-oriented companies. The inclusion of Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF and Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF introduces some diversification by adding small-cap and international exposure, though these areas are less emphasized.
Historically, this portfolio has demonstrated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 16.00%, with a maximum drawdown of -24.91%. Such performance suggests resilience and strong growth potential, though the significant drawdown indicates periods of high volatility. The days contributing to 90% of returns being concentrated in a short period highlights the portfolio's reliance on specific market conditions for gains, underscoring the importance of timing in investment decisions.
Monte Carlo simulations, which use historical data to forecast potential future outcomes, suggest a wide range of possible performance scenarios for this portfolio. With 996 out of 1,000 simulations showing positive returns, the median projected growth is substantial. However, the reliance on past performance to predict future results should be approached with caution, as market conditions can change unpredictably.
The portfolio's allocation is entirely in stocks, with no exposure to bonds, cash, or alternative investments. This all-equity strategy maximizes growth potential but also increases volatility and risk, particularly in market downturns. Diversifying across different asset classes could provide a buffer against stock market fluctuations and reduce overall portfolio risk.
A heavy emphasis on technology, financial services, and consumer cyclicals characterizes the sectoral allocation. This concentration in growth-oriented sectors can drive significant returns during bull markets but may also lead to higher volatility. The underrepresentation of traditionally defensive sectors like utilities and healthcare could make the portfolio more sensitive to market downturns.
The portfolio's geographic exposure is heavily skewed towards North America, with minimal allocations to developed Europe and Japan, and no exposure to emerging markets. This concentration enhances exposure to U.S. market performance but limits global diversification benefits and opportunities for growth in emerging economies.
The portfolio's market capitalization breakdown shows a preference for mega and big-cap stocks, which tend to be more stable and less volatile than their smaller counterparts. However, the inclusion of small and micro-cap stocks, particularly through the Avantis® ETFs, introduces growth potential albeit with increased risk.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The portfolio's current configuration is close to the Efficient Frontier, suggesting an optimal balance between risk and return at its current risk level. However, slight adjustments could potentially increase the expected return to 17.10% without significantly altering the risk profile. This optimization indicates room for fine-tuning to achieve even better risk-adjusted returns.
Dividend yields across the portfolio vary, with the international and small-cap value ETFs offering higher yields, contributing to the portfolio's total yield of 1.20%. While dividends provide a steady income stream and can cushion against market volatility, the portfolio's focus on growth over income is evident in its overall moderate yield.
The portfolio's Total Expense Ratio (TER) of 0.16% is relatively low, enhancing net returns for investors. Lower costs are crucial for long-term growth, as they compound over time, leaving more capital to grow. The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF's exceptionally low cost stands out, emphasizing the portfolio's cost efficiency.
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