Momentum tilted global stock portfolio with strong recent gains but limited history and modest diversification
Report created on May 14, 2026Risk profile
4/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
-
VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 40.00% -
VX Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
VXUS - US9219097683 20.00% -
SP Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
SPMO - US46138E3392 16.00% -
FM MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF
FMTM 12.00% -
SG SMART Earnings Growth 30 ETF
SGRT 12.00%
This portfolio is a five‑ETF, all‑equity mix with a clear structure. About 60% sits in broad index funds covering the total US and international stock markets, while 40% is in three focused momentum and earnings‑growth ETFs. That mix combines “own the whole market” exposure with a sizable tilt toward faster‑moving stocks. With everything in stocks and no bonds or cash substitutes, the portfolio is built around growth rather than capital stability. Because one fund has only about nine months of data, any conclusions about how this specific mix behaves over full market cycles should be treated as early impressions, not long‑term patterns.
Growth
Over roughly nine months, $1,000 in this portfolio grew to about $1,321, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) near 46%. CAGR is like average speed on a road trip, smoothing out bumps along the way. That figure handily beats both the US and global equity benchmarks over the same window, which is impressive but heavily influenced by a short, strong run in momentum‑heavy areas. The worst pullback so far was about -10%, slightly deeper than the benchmarks but still moderate for an all‑stock, growth‑tilted mix. With only 11 days driving 90% of returns, timing mattered a lot. Because the history is so short, this outperformance may or may not persist.
Projection
The forward‑looking results come from a Monte Carlo simulation, which basically re‑mixes past return and volatility patterns thousands of times to build a range of possible futures. Here, the median path turns $1,000 into about $2,773 over 15 years, with a wide “likely” band from roughly $1,749 to $4,242. That suggests solid growth potential but also meaningful uncertainty. Crucially, the simulation is built on less than a year of data, during a strong period for momentum‑type stocks. That can easily make the projected averages look more optimistic than what long‑term history for similar strategies would suggest, so these numbers are best seen as rough illustrations, not precise forecasts.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of this portfolio is in stocks, with no bonds, cash, or alternative assets. Asset classes are broad buckets like stocks, bonds, and real estate, and mixing them is a classic way to spread risk. A pure‑equity setup leans fully into market upside but also keeps you exposed to equity drawdowns without a built‑in stabilizer. Compared with many “balanced” mixes that blend in bonds, this structure is more growth‑oriented and more sensitive to stock market swings. The broad index core (US plus international) does help diversify within equities, but it does not change the fact that, at the asset‑class level, everything hinges on how global stocks behave.
Sectors
- Technology 35%
- Industrials 15%
- Financials 11%
- Consumer Discretionary 7%
- Health Care 7%
- Telecommunications 7%
- Basic Materials 5%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Energy 4%
- Real Estate 2%
- Utilities 2%
Sector exposure is quite tilted toward technology at 35%, with industrials and financials next, and smaller slices across other areas. Sectors are groups of companies facing similar risks; if one sector dominates, portfolio behavior may lean heavily on its fortunes. Relative to many broad equity benchmarks, this tech share is on the high side, reflecting the momentum and earnings‑growth satellites, which tend to pick faster‑growing or recently strong names. Tech‑heavier portfolios often benefit when innovation and risk‑taking are rewarded, but they can see sharper moves when interest rates rise or when investors rotate toward more defensive or value‑oriented sectors. The presence of all major sectors still provides some internal diversification.
Regions
- North America 82%
- Europe Developed 7%
- Japan 3%
- Asia Developed 3%
- Asia Emerging 3%
- Australasia 1%
- Africa/Middle East 1%
Geographically, about 82% is in North America, with modest allocations to developed Europe and Asia, plus small exposures to emerging markets and other regions. Geography matters because different economies, currencies, and political systems can follow different paths. Compared with a typical global equity benchmark, which spreads more evenly outside the US, this portfolio has a stronger home‑region tilt. That can amplify gains when US markets and the dollar are strong but also wires much of the portfolio to one economic and policy environment. The international slice does add diversification, yet the portfolio’s overall behavior is likely to track North American equity conditions most closely.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 33%
- Large-cap 32%
- Mid-cap 25%
- Small-cap 7%
- Micro-cap 1%
By market capitalization, the portfolio is anchored in mega‑ and large‑cap stocks at about two‑thirds of the total, with meaningful mid‑cap and smaller company exposure as well. Market cap is simply company size in the stock market, and different size groups tend to react differently to economic news. Larger companies often show more stability and liquidity, while mid‑ and small‑caps can be more volatile but sometimes offer stronger growth periods. This mix leans toward the stability of big names while still leaving room for smaller firms to influence returns. The relatively low micro‑cap share keeps the very speculative end of the market from dominating day‑to‑day swings.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 4.00%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 2.93%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- SMART Earnings Growth 30 ETF
-
AA Apple Inc 2.37%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 2.15%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 1.91%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 1.75%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 1.52%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
LI Lumentum Holdings Inc 1.50%
Part of fund(s):- SMART Earnings Growth 30 ETF
-
VR Vertiv Holdings Co 1.45%
Part of fund(s):- MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF
- SMART Earnings Growth 30 ETF
-
GL Corning Incorporated 1.31%
Part of fund(s):- SMART Earnings Growth 30 ETF
- Top 10 total 20.89%
Looking through the ETFs, the largest identifiable underlying positions include familiar growth and tech names like NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Broadcom. These appear via multiple funds, which creates overlap: the same company contributing from several directions. Overlap can subtly concentrate risk, because a move in one stock affects several holdings at once. Here, for example, NVIDIA alone accounts for about 4% of the portfolio based on top‑10 data. Because only ETF top‑10 holdings are included, the true overlap is likely somewhat higher but not fully captured. That means actual concentration in big growth names could be understated, an important nuance when interpreting diversification.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
Factor exposure shows a strong tilt toward momentum (75%) and a very low tilt to size (10%), with value coming in low as well. Factors are characteristics like style or behavior that help explain why groups of stocks move the way they do, similar to “ingredients” in a recipe. A high momentum tilt means the portfolio leans into stocks that have done well recently, which can amplify gains in strong, trending markets but often leads to sharper setbacks when trends reverse. The very low size exposure suggests a bias toward larger companies instead of smaller ones. That combination points to a growth‑ and trend‑following flavor rather than a classic value or small‑cap orientation.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 40.00% 28.9% -
SMART Earnings Growth 30 ETF
Weight: 12.00% 21.7% -
Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 20.00% 16.9% -
MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF
Weight: 12.00% 16.4% -
Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
Weight: 16.00% 16.1%
Risk contribution shows how much each ETF drives the portfolio’s overall ups and downs, which can differ from its simple weight. Here, the broad US index fund is 40% of assets but only about 29% of total risk, reflecting its diversified, core role. In contrast, the SMART Earnings Growth 30 ETF is 12% of the portfolio yet contributes around 22% of risk, with a risk‑to‑weight ratio above 1.8. That signals it’s relatively volatile and influential. The top three positions together account for about two‑thirds of total risk. This pattern is typical when specialized growth or momentum funds sit alongside broad index funds: smaller satellite slices can punch above their weight in shaping volatility.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The efficient frontier analysis suggests the current mix is already on or very close to the best‑available trade‑off between risk and return using these five ETFs. The portfolio’s Sharpe ratio, a measure of return per unit of risk above a risk‑free rate, is strong at about 2.05 over this short window. An “optimal” version could push expected returns much higher but at significantly more volatility, while a minimum‑variance mix would trim risk and also reduce returns. Because all of these numbers are derived from less than a year of performance, the apparent efficiency should be read with caution. Still, within the observed period, the weights are working well relative to the available alternatives.
Dividends
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.70%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.00%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 2.70%
- MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF 0.20%
- SMART Earnings Growth 30 ETF 0.10%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.09%
The overall dividend yield is about 1.09%, with the international index fund providing the highest yield and the momentum and earnings‑growth ETFs offering very low payouts. Dividend yield measures cash distributions as a share of price, like a salary from your investments. Here, the income component is modest, which fits a growth‑ and momentum‑tilted equity portfolio that focuses more on price appreciation than regular cash flow. Over time, reinvested dividends can be a meaningful part of total return, even at lower yields. It’s also worth noting that dividend patterns can change as companies and regions shift policies, and the short performance window doesn’t fully show how these funds behave across complete market cycles.
Ongoing product costs
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.04%
Total ongoing fund costs, measured by the weighted average TER (Total Expense Ratio), come in around 0.04% per year, which is impressively low. TER is like an annual service charge taken directly from fund assets; even small percentages compound over time. Most of the allocation sits in ultra‑low‑cost index funds, while the more specialized momentum and earnings‑growth ETFs charge a bit more but still at reasonable levels. Keeping overall costs this low supports better net returns relative to portfolios using similar strategies with higher fees. With such a slim fee drag, differences in long‑term outcomes will mostly come from market performance, factor tilts, and asset allocation choices rather than expenses.
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