Concentrated US growth portfolio with strong tech tilt and historically high but volatile recent returns

Report created on May 18, 2026

Risk profile Info

4/7
Balanced
Less risk More risk

Diversification profile Info

3/5
Moderately Diversified
Less diversification More diversification

Positions

This portfolio is built almost entirely from equity ETFs, with a small direct stock position and a modest crypto slice. Over half sits in a broad US total market fund, with another large chunk in an S&P 500 ETF and a NASDAQ 100 ETF. Smaller allocations go to US small-cap value, international equities, semiconductors, a Bitcoin trust, and Microsoft stock. This structure leans clearly toward US growth and large companies, with one focused satellite in semiconductors and one in small-cap value. Overall, it behaves much more like a stock-heavy growth portfolio than a mixed “balanced” setup, since bonds and cash are essentially absent from the holdings.

Growth Info

From early 2024 to mid‑2026, a hypothetical $1,000 in this portfolio grew to about $1,631. That translates into a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.33%, slightly ahead of both the US market and a global equity benchmark over this period. CAGR is like average speed on a road trip: it smooths out bumps to show steady annual progress. The trade-off is a max drawdown of about -20%, meaning the largest peak‑to‑trough drop was quite noticeable, though not extreme for an equity‑heavy mix. Most of the gains came in just 17 trading days, showing how missing a few strong days can materially change outcomes. As always, past returns don’t guarantee anything about the future.

Projection Info

The Monte Carlo projection uses the historical risk and return of this portfolio to simulate many possible 15‑year paths. It randomly “replays” ups and downs thousands of times to see a range of outcomes rather than one forecast. The median scenario turns $1,000 into around $2,959, with a wide middle band between roughly $1,757 and $4,557. There are also more extreme possibilities, from about flat to several times the starting value. The average annualized return across simulations is 8.48%, but the 5–95% range shows that results could be much weaker or stronger. These simulations are helpful for intuition, yet they rely on past behavior, which may not repeat—especially with exposures like tech and crypto.

Asset classes Info

  • Stocks
    97%
  • Crypto
    3%

About 97% of the portfolio is in stocks, with around 3% in crypto and effectively nothing in bonds or cash. This creates a clear growth‑oriented asset class profile, where long‑term return potential is tied closely to company earnings and market sentiment. Compared with many “balanced” allocations that often include sizable bond slices, this mix accepts more equity‑type ups and downs in exchange for greater growth potential. The small crypto position adds another return driver that doesn’t behave exactly like stocks, but it can be significantly more volatile. Overall, the diversification comes from different kinds of stocks and a small alternative sleeve, rather than from mixing in stabilizing bond exposure.

Sectors Info

  • Technology
    37%
  • Financials
    11%
  • Consumer Discretionary
    10%
  • Telecommunications
    9%
  • Industrials
    8%
  • Health Care
    8%
  • Consumer Staples
    5%
  • Energy
    4%
  • Crypto
    3%
  • Basic Materials
    2%
  • Utilities
    2%
  • Real Estate
    2%

This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.

Sector‑wise, the portfolio is heavily tilted toward technology at 37%, with meaningful but smaller stakes in financials, consumer discretionary, telecom, industrials, and health care. Remaining sectors—consumer staples, energy, materials, utilities, and real estate—are present in single‑digit percentages. This tech‑heavy profile is even more pronounced when you consider the dedicated semiconductor ETF and the NASDAQ 100 ETF, which both concentrate in growth‑oriented industries. Tech‑leaning portfolios often benefit during periods of innovation enthusiasm and falling interest rates, but they can be more sensitive when rates rise or when growth expectations cool. The upside is exposure to high‑growth themes; the trade‑off is higher sector‑specific swings.

Regions Info

  • North America
    92%
  • Europe Developed
    2%
  • Asia Developed
    1%
  • Asia Emerging
    1%
  • Japan
    1%

This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.

Geographically, about 92% of the equity exposure is in North America, with only small slices in developed Europe, developed Asia, emerging Asia, and Japan. This creates a strong home‑country and US‑centric tilt. Global market indices usually have a lower US share and more weight in other regions, so this portfolio is more concentrated than a typical world equity benchmark. A benefit of this focus is alignment with the world’s largest and most liquid equity market, which has done very well in recent years. The flip side is that economic, policy, and currency developments in the US dominate outcomes, while many international growth opportunities and potential diversification benefits play a smaller role.

Market capitalization Info

  • Mega-cap
    42%
  • Large-cap
    29%
  • Mid-cap
    16%
  • Small-cap
    6%
  • Micro-cap
    3%

This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.

By market capitalization, the portfolio leans strongly toward mega‑cap and large‑cap stocks, together making up over 70% of exposure. Mid‑caps provide some additional breadth, while small‑ and micro‑caps represent under 10% in total. Large companies often provide more stability, better liquidity, and business diversification than smaller firms, which can buffer some volatility. On the other hand, smaller companies sometimes have higher long‑term growth potential but more pronounced ups and downs. The dedicated small‑cap value ETF adds a targeted slice of that segment, yet the overall feel remains very large‑cap driven. This structure means headline‑making big names will have an outsized impact on the portfolio’s daily movements.

True holdings Info

  • Microsoft Corporation
    6.41%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
    • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
    • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
    Direct holding 2.69%
  • NVIDIA Corporation
    6.19%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
    • Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
    • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
    • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
  • Apple Inc
    5.06%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
    • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
    • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
  • Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC)
    3.16%
    Part of fund(s):
    • iShares Bitcoin Trust
  • Amazon.com Inc
    2.95%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
    • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
    • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
  • Broadcom Inc
    2.51%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
    • Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
    • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
    • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
  • Alphabet Inc Class A
    2.47%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
    • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
    • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
  • Alphabet Inc Class C
    2.02%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
    • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
    • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
  • Tesla Inc
    1.60%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
    • LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
    • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
    • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
  • Meta Platforms Inc.
    1.40%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
    • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
  • Top 10 total 33.77%

This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.

Looking through the ETFs’ top holdings, a few big names stand out: Microsoft, NVIDIA, Apple, Amazon, Broadcom, Alphabet, Tesla, and Meta are all significant. Microsoft alone is about 6.41% of the portfolio when combining the direct stock and ETF exposure, showing some hidden concentration. NVIDIA and Apple are also above 5% each via multiple funds. This overlap means that even though the portfolio holds several ETFs, a substantial slice is effectively riding on the performance of a handful of mega‑cap tech and internet companies. Because only ETF top‑10 holdings are captured, actual overlap is likely a bit higher than reported, so concentration in those giants may be even more pronounced.

Factors Info

Value
Preference for undervalued stocks
Neutral
Data availability: 97%
Size
Exposure to smaller companies
Neutral
Data availability: 97%
Momentum
Exposure to recently outperforming stocks
Neutral
Data availability: 97%
Quality
Preference for financially healthy companies
Neutral
Data availability: 97%
Yield
Preference for dividend-paying stocks
Neutral
Data availability: 100%
Low Volatility
Preference for stable, lower-risk stocks
Neutral
Data availability: 97%

Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.

Factor exposures—value, size, momentum, quality, low volatility, and yield—sit very close to neutral across the board. Factor exposure is like checking which “ingredients” drive returns: cheap vs expensive stocks (value), big vs small (size), recent winners (momentum), stable and profitable businesses (quality), smoother price paths (low volatility), and higher dividend payers (yield). A neutral reading around 50% means the portfolio behaves broadly like the overall market on these dimensions, without a strong tilt toward or away from any specific factor. This balanced setup can be helpful if the goal is to capture general market behavior rather than making big bets on particular styles winning in the future.

Risk contribution Info

  • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
    Weight: 51.93%
    48.5%
  • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
    Weight: 17.11%
    15.4%
  • Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
    Weight: 12.29%
    14.1%
  • Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
    Weight: 3.73%
    7.1%
  • Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
    Weight: 5.08%
    4.9%
  • Top 5 risk contribution 90.1%

Risk contribution shows how much each holding drives overall portfolio volatility, which can differ from its weight. Here, the broad US total market ETF is about 52% of the weight and contributes roughly 49% of the risk—pretty proportional. The S&P 500 ETF is similar, while the NASDAQ 100 ETF punches slightly above its weight, contributing more risk than its allocation due to its growth and tech focus. The semiconductor ETF is the standout: at under 4% weight, it contributes more than 7% of risk, reflecting its high volatility. Altogether, the top three holdings account for about 78% of total risk, showing that most of the portfolio’s swings are driven by that core US equity block.

Redundant positions Info

  • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
    Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
    Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
    High correlation

Correlation measures how closely assets move together, on a scale from -1 (move opposite) to 1 (move almost identically). Here, the NASDAQ 100, S&P 500, and Total US Market ETFs are highly correlated, meaning they tend to rise and fall in tandem. This is natural, since they all draw heavily from the same large US companies. High correlation doesn’t make these funds bad; it just means that owning all three doesn’t dramatically reduce risk during broad US market downturns. Diversification benefits are stronger when assets behave differently in stressed periods. In this portfolio, most of the “cushion” from correlation differences will come from international stocks, small‑cap value, and the Bitcoin trust.

Risk vs. return

This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.

Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.

The risk–return optimization chart plots the current portfolio against an “efficient frontier,” which shows the best returns achievable for each risk level using these same holdings in different mixes. The current portfolio has a Sharpe ratio of 1.08, which measures risk‑adjusted return by comparing excess return to volatility. The optimal mix reaches a Sharpe of 1.42 with higher return but also higher risk, while the minimum variance mix lowers risk and still has a Sharpe above 1.2. Because the current portfolio sits about 2.73 percentage points below the frontier at its risk level, the data suggests that simply reweighting the existing holdings—without adding anything new—could improve the balance between risk and return.

Dividends Info

  • Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.30%
  • Microsoft Corporation 0.60%
  • Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.40%
  • Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF 0.30%
  • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.00%
  • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.00%
  • Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 2.70%
  • Weighted yield (per year) 0.94%

The portfolio’s overall dividend yield is about 0.94%, which is modest for a stock‑heavy mix. Yield is the annual cash distribution as a percentage of the current value, like interest on a bank account but less predictable. The international fund has the highest yield at 2.7%, while US core funds hover around 1%, and the NASDAQ 100 and semiconductor ETFs pay even less. This pattern is common for growth‑oriented and tech‑heavy portfolios, where companies often reinvest profits rather than paying them out. In practice, this means most of the portfolio’s return historically and going forward is likely to come from price changes rather than from steady cash income.

Ongoing product costs Info

  • Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
  • iShares Bitcoin Trust 0.12%
  • Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.15%
  • Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF 0.19%
  • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
  • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
  • Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
  • Weighted costs total (per year) 0.06%

Costs are a strong positive point here. The portfolio’s total expense ratio (TER) is about 0.06% per year, meaning roughly $0.60 in annual fees for every $1,000 invested. TER represents the ongoing management and operational costs charged by the funds, taken out of performance automatically. Most holdings are very low‑cost index ETFs from large providers, with slightly higher but still reasonable fees on the small‑cap value, semiconductor, and Bitcoin funds. Over long periods, keeping fees this low supports better net returns because less performance is eaten away every year. This cost profile aligns well with best practices for diversified, index‑oriented portfolios.

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