Concentrated semiconductor and metals portfolio with strong past returns and very sharp ups and downs

Report created on May 7, 2026

Risk profile Info

6/7
Aggressive
Less risk More risk

Diversification profile Info

2/5
Low Diversity
Less diversification More diversification

Positions

This portfolio is heavily concentrated, both thematically and by holding. One ETF tracking semiconductor companies makes up half of the total weight, with another quarter in gold, uranium, copper, and silver miners. The rest is mainly focused growth exposure through a Nasdaq 100 ETF and a small slice of a broad US market ETF. Everything is in equity ETFs, so there is no built‑in cushion from bonds or cash. This kind of structure puts most of the portfolio’s fate in a few cyclical, commodity- and tech-driven areas, which can deliver large swings in value over relatively short periods.

Growth Info

Over the past few years, $1,000 grew to about $2,851, far ahead of both the US and global market benchmarks. The portfolio’s compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.21% roughly doubles the US market’s 12.02%. CAGR is like the average yearly speed over the whole trip. The tradeoff was a max drawdown of -37.65%, meaning the portfolio once fell over a third from peak to trough before recovering. This deep drop and strong rebound show a “high risk, high reward” pattern. Past returns reflect a very favorable period for semis and miners and may not repeat.

Projection Info

The forward projection uses Monte Carlo simulation, which runs many what‑if scenarios based on past behavior to see a range of possible futures. Here, 1,000 simulations of a $1,000 investment over 15 years produce a median ending value around $2,778, with a wide “likely” band from about $1,850 to $4,288. The annualized return across all simulations is 8.30%, but outcomes vary a lot, from barely above break-even to very strong growth. This spread shows how volatile portfolios can land in very different places even with the same starting point. The model leans on history, so it’s a guide, not a prediction.

Asset classes Info

  • Stocks
    100%

All of the portfolio is in stocks, with 0% in bonds, cash, or other asset classes. Stocks historically offer higher growth potential than bonds but with larger and more frequent swings in value. A 100% equity mix means there is no built‑in stabilizer during market stress, so portfolio value can move sharply up and down with equity markets. Compared with a typical broad global equity index, this portfolio is both fully equity and more narrowly focused by theme, which ups the potential for big relative wins or losses versus “plain vanilla” stock allocations.

Sectors Info

  • Technology
    57%
  • Basic Materials
    25%
  • Energy
    10%
  • Telecommunications
    2%
  • Consumer Discretionary
    2%
  • Consumer Staples
    1%
  • Health Care
    1%
  • Industrials
    1%
  • Financials
    1%

Sector exposure is dominated by technology at 57%, driven largely by semiconductors, with another 25% in basic materials and 10% in energy via mining and uranium holdings. The remaining sectors are tiny slivers, each around 1–2%. Compared with broad market benchmarks, this is a strong tilt away from areas like financials, health care, and industrials, and toward cyclical, capital-intensive businesses tied to tech demand and commodity cycles. Tech- and resource-heavy mixes often see amplified moves during interest rate shifts, economic booms, and slowdowns, so sector swings can be quite pronounced.

Regions Info

  • North America
    84%
  • Europe Developed
    5%
  • Australasia
    4%
  • Asia Emerging
    3%
  • Asia Developed
    2%
  • Africa/Middle East
    1%
  • Latin America
    1%

Geographically, the portfolio leans heavily on North America at 84%, with modest exposure to developed Europe and Australasia and small allocations across emerging Asia, developed Asia, Latin America, and Africa/Middle East. This is more US- and Canada-centric than global benchmarks, where North America still dominates but by a smaller margin. That concentration means company earnings, currencies, and policy decisions in North America will have an outsized impact. The remaining global spread does add some diversification, but the overall picture is still very anchored in one region’s economic and market conditions.

Market capitalization Info

  • Large-cap
    36%
  • Mega-cap
    31%
  • Mid-cap
    22%
  • Small-cap
    6%
  • Micro-cap
    2%

Market cap exposure is fairly spread across mega-cap (31%), large-cap (36%), and mid-cap (22%), with smaller slices in small- and micro-cap names. Market capitalization reflects company size; larger firms tend to be more stable, while smaller ones can be more volatile but sometimes faster growing. This mix leans toward bigger companies, but the presence of mid, small, and micro caps, especially in mining and thematic funds, introduces additional volatility. Compared with a broad index, there is less of an extreme tilt to either tiny or giant firms, but the thematic focus still drives overall risk.

True holdings Info

  • NVIDIA Corporation
    6.42%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
    • Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
    • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
  • Broadcom Inc
    5.49%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
    • Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
    • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
  • Micron Technology Inc
    3.85%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
  • Intel Corporation
    3.18%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
  • Marvell Technology Group Ltd
    3.11%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
  • Advanced Micro Devices Inc
    2.72%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
  • Cameco Corp
    2.13%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Sprott Uranium Miners ETF
  • Texas Instruments Incorporated
    2.03%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
  • Qualcomm Incorporated
    1.94%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
  • Newmont Goldcorp Corp
    1.88%
    Part of fund(s):
    • WisdomTree Efficient Gold Plus Gold Miners Strategy Fund
  • Top 10 total 32.76%

Looking through to the underlying holdings, several semiconductor names show up meaningfully, including NVIDIA, Broadcom, Micron, Intel, Marvell, AMD, Texas Instruments, and Qualcomm. These appear via multiple ETFs, creating overlap—hidden concentration where the same company is owned in more than one fund. For example, NVIDIA and Broadcom together account for nearly 12% of the portfolio’s look-through exposure, despite no single‑stock purchases. Newmont and Cameco add further concentration in specific miners. Because only top‑10 ETF holdings are captured, actual overlap is likely higher, so stock-level bets are stronger than they first appear.

Factors Info

Value
Preference for undervalued stocks
Very low
Data availability: 65%
Size
Exposure to smaller companies
Neutral
Data availability: 100%
Momentum
Exposure to recently outperforming stocks
High
Data availability: 65%
Quality
Preference for financially healthy companies
Neutral
Data availability: 65%
Yield
Preference for dividend-paying stocks
Neutral
Data availability: 100%
Low Volatility
Preference for stable, lower-risk stocks
Very low
Data availability: 100%

Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.

Factor exposure shows a very low tilt to value (7%) and low volatility (20%), with other factors sitting near neutral and momentum notably high at 68%. Factors are like investing “personality traits” that shape how holdings behave. A very low value score means the portfolio leans toward pricier, growth-oriented companies rather than bargain-priced ones. Very low low-volatility exposure suggests a bias toward more volatile names. The high momentum tilt means many holdings have recently done well and are trending, which can amplify gains in rising markets but may also lead to sharper reversals when trends break.

Risk contribution Info

  • Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
    Weight: 50.00%
    57.0%
  • WisdomTree Efficient Gold Plus Gold Miners Strategy Fund
    Weight: 15.00%
    14.0%
  • Sprott Uranium Miners ETF
    Weight: 10.00%
    10.4%
  • Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
    Weight: 10.00%
    6.6%
  • Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF
    Weight: 5.00%
    5.1%
  • Top 5 risk contribution 93.1%

Risk contribution data highlights how much each ETF drives the portfolio’s overall ups and downs. The semiconductor ETF, at 50% weight, contributes about 57% of total risk—a bit more than its size would suggest. The gold-plus-miners fund and uranium ETF together add around a quarter of the risk. Overall, the top three holdings create 81.37% of portfolio volatility, even though they are 75% of the weight. Risk contribution can differ from weight because some holdings are more volatile or less diversified. Here, risk is clearly concentrated in a handful of high-octane themes.

Redundant positions Info

  • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
    Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
    High correlation

The correlation section shows that the Nasdaq 100 ETF and the S&P 500 ETF have moved almost identically. Correlation measures how often two investments move together; a correlation near 1 means they usually rise and fall in tandem. That similarity is expected since both funds track large US growth-heavy stocks, though with different compositions. Highly correlated holdings can limit diversification benefits, because when one drops, the other often does too. In this portfolio, though, the S&P 500 slice is small, so this overlap mainly reinforces the existing US large-cap growth exposure.

Risk vs. return

This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.

Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.

The efficient frontier analysis compares the portfolio’s risk/return tradeoff with the best combinations possible using the same ETFs. The current portfolio has a Sharpe ratio of 0.89, while the optimal mix shows 1.12, meaning better risk-adjusted returns. The current point sits about 3.66 percentage points below the frontier at its risk level, so a different weighting of these same funds could historically have produced more return for similar volatility. The minimum-variance mix would cut risk significantly but also lower expected returns. This doesn’t criticize the holdings themselves, just the chosen balance between them.

Dividends Info

  • Global X Copper Miners ETF 2.30%
  • WisdomTree Efficient Gold Plus Gold Miners Strategy Fund 2.50%
  • Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.40%
  • Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF 1.80%
  • Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF 0.30%
  • Sprott Uranium Miners ETF 2.50%
  • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.10%
  • Weighted yield (per year) 1.08%

The portfolio’s estimated total dividend yield is around 1.08%, which is modest and well below many income-focused approaches. Yields vary by fund: the gold and uranium strategies sit closer to 2.5%, copper and silver miners around 1.8–2.3%, while the tech-heavy ETFs yield less than 1%. Dividends are the cash payouts from companies and can be an important part of long-term equity returns, but here the main growth engine appears to be price appreciation. This is common for portfolios tilted toward growth, semiconductors, and miners rather than traditional high-dividend sectors.

Ongoing product costs Info

  • Global X Copper Miners ETF 0.65%
  • WisdomTree Efficient Gold Plus Gold Miners Strategy Fund 0.45%
  • Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.15%
  • Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF 0.69%
  • Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF 0.19%
  • Sprott Uranium Miners ETF 0.75%
  • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
  • Weighted costs total (per year) 0.32%

Total ongoing costs, measured by the weighted average TER of 0.32%, are moderate for a roster of specialized thematic ETFs. The broad-market Vanguard S&P 500 ETF is very cheap at 0.03%, while uranium, copper, and junior silver miners sit higher, between 0.65% and 0.75%, reflecting their niche focus. TER, or Total Expense Ratio, is the annual fee charged by a fund and comes out of performance before you see returns. Over long periods, even small differences in TER can compound, so keeping the overall cost near a third of a percent is a solid outcome for such targeted exposure.

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