This portfolio is heavily weighted towards the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, accounting for 91% of the total, with the remaining 9% in the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund ETF Shares. This composition reflects a single-focused diversification strategy, primarily leaning on the performance of large-cap U.S. equities for growth, while the bond allocation provides a minimal cushion against market volatility. The portfolio's diversification score is low, indicating a concentrated risk in one major asset class.
Historically, this portfolio has shown a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 13.25%, with a significant drawdown of -31.96%. These figures suggest that while the portfolio has the potential for high returns, it also carries a substantial risk, as evidenced by the maximum drawdown. The performance heavily depends on the robustness of the U.S. stock market, particularly the sectors represented in the S&P 500.
Forward projections, based on a Monte Carlo simulation with 1,000 iterations, suggest a wide range of potential outcomes. The median projection indicates a 180.8% return, with a lower 5th percentile at 19.5% and a higher 67th percentile at 252.0%. These projections underscore the portfolio's potential for significant growth but also highlight the risk of substantial variability in returns.
The allocation between stocks (91%) and bonds (9%) reflects a growth-oriented strategy with a moderate buffer against market downturns. This asset class distribution is typical for investors with a higher risk tolerance, aiming for capital appreciation over the long term while accepting short-term volatility.
The sectoral allocation mirrors the S&P 500's composition, with a heavy emphasis on Technology (30%), Financial Services (13%), and Consumer Cyclicals (10%). This sector distribution positions the portfolio for growth but also exposes it to sector-specific risks, such as regulatory changes or economic cycles affecting technology and financial services.
The geographic allocation is overwhelmingly North American (91%), reflecting the S&P 500's focus. This concentration in developed markets, particularly the U.S., suggests confidence in the stability and growth potential of these economies but also exposes the portfolio to region-specific risks, such as political changes or economic downturns in the U.S.
The market capitalization breakdown shows a preference for Mega (42%) and Big (32%) cap stocks, with less exposure to Medium (16%) and minimal to Small (1%) cap stocks. This composition favors established companies with a history of stability and growth but may miss out on the higher growth potential of smaller companies.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
Considering the portfolio's current composition, optimization towards the Efficient Frontier could involve diversifying across more asset classes and sectors to improve the risk-return ratio. However, such adjustments would depend on the investor's risk tolerance and investment goals. The portfolio's heavy reliance on the S&P 500 is efficient for growth but could benefit from increased diversification to mitigate risk.
The dividend yield from the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund ETF Shares (3.80%) and the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (1.20%) contributes to a total portfolio yield of 1.43%. This yield provides a steady income stream, albeit modest, contributing to the portfolio's total returns.
The portfolio benefits from exceptionally low costs, with a Total Expense Ratio (TER) of 0.03% for both ETFs. These low costs enhance net returns over time, making it an efficient choice for long-term growth.
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