This portfolio is heavily weighted towards US equities, comprising 70% in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, 20% in the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF, and 10% split equally between American Express and Visa stocks. With 100% of its allocation in stocks, it lacks diversity across asset classes and geographic regions, concentrating almost entirely in North America. This composition suggests a strong growth orientation but comes with notable risks due to its low diversification across different investment vehicles and regions.
The portfolio has shown a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 14.34%, which is impressive. However, it has also experienced a maximum drawdown of -34.58%, indicating significant volatility and potential for large losses in adverse market conditions. The fact that 90% of returns came from just 30 days points to the portfolio's performance being highly dependent on short, strong market movements, underscoring its risk level.
Monte Carlo simulations, which use historical data to forecast a range of possible outcomes, suggest a wide dispersion in potential portfolio values. With a median (50th percentile) increase of 616.5% and 985 out of 1,000 simulations showing positive returns, the forward-looking projections are optimistic. However, these simulations also highlight the portfolio's risk, with a 5th percentile outcome of only 47.6% growth, emphasizing the importance of understanding the potential for both high returns and significant losses.
The portfolio's exclusive investment in stocks, without any allocation to bonds, real estate, or alternative investments, limits its diversification. While this can enhance growth prospects in bullish market conditions, it also increases susceptibility to market downturns. Diversifying across different asset classes can help mitigate risk and smooth out returns over time.
Sector allocation is concentrated in technology and financial services, which together make up nearly half of the portfolio. This concentration can lead to higher volatility, especially in market conditions that negatively affect these sectors. While these sectors have historically provided strong growth, diversifying into additional sectors could reduce risk and increase the portfolio's resilience.
The geographic allocation is almost exclusively focused on North America, with negligible exposure to other regions. This concentration in a single geographic area increases the portfolio's vulnerability to regional economic downturns and misses out on potential growth opportunities in emerging and developed markets outside of North America.
The portfolio's emphasis on mega and big cap stocks, which constitute 78% of the allocation, aligns with its growth profile but may limit exposure to the potentially higher growth rates of medium, small, and micro-cap stocks. While larger companies tend to be more stable, incorporating a broader range of market capitalizations could offer a balance between stability and growth.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The current allocation suggests room for optimization towards the Efficient Frontier, where the portfolio would achieve the best possible risk-return ratio. Adjusting the asset allocation to include a broader range of asset classes, sectors, and geographic regions could improve diversification and risk management without necessarily sacrificing growth potential.
The portfolio's dividend yield of 1.62% contributes to its total return, with the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF offering a significant yield of 3.90%. While dividends provide a steady income stream and can help cushion downturns, the overall focus should remain on balancing growth with income, especially for a portfolio with a growth profile.
With a total expense ratio (TER) of 0.08%, the portfolio benefits from relatively low costs, which is favorable for long-term growth. Keeping costs low is crucial in maximizing net returns, especially in a growth-oriented portfolio where compounding plays a significant role over time.
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