Confident small cap gremlin chases factor glory while pretending to be a balanced grown up
Report created on Mar 25, 2026Risk profile
4/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
-
VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 55.00% -
AV Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF
AVDV - US0250728021 15.00% -
AV Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 15.00% -
FM MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF
FMTM 15.00%
The structure is basically “100% stocks and vibes”: a 55% total US market core, then three 15% side bets in small value and momentum. For something labeled “Balanced,” there is exactly zero balance: no bonds, no cash, no safety net, just a trampoline over concrete. The good news is it’s at least coherent: core index plus spicy satellites instead of random clutter. But this is not a middle‑of‑the‑road setup; it’s an equity rocket with training wheels photoshopped on. Takeaway: if the goal is true balanced behavior, something has to give—either the “balanced” label or the 100% equity exposure.
Growth
Performance over the short window looks heroic: 24.4% CAGR versus ~17% for the US market and ~18.5% globally. CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) is basically your “average speed” over the trip, and you’ve been in the fast lane. Max drawdown around -13.5% is about the same as the benchmarks, so you’re not magically safer; you just happened to ride the right factors recently. Also, 90% of returns came in just 8 days, which screams “blink and you miss it.” Past data is yesterday’s weather: useful, not prophetic. Takeaway: you outperformed, but over a short stretch where the style you loaded up on happened to win.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection is basically a computer playing 1,000 alternate futures based on recent returns, then spitting out a range. A 10‑year median result of +4,742% and an average annualized return of 34% is not a forecast; it’s a fantasy built off a hot streak and less than two years of data. Every simulation ending positive just means the model never saw a proper nightmare scenario in the input. Past data is like a highlight reel, not the full game. Takeaway: treat those sky‑high projected returns as motivational wallpaper, not something you plan your retirement date around.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
Asset classes: 100% stocks, 0% everything else. For a “Balanced” risk profile, that’s adorable. It’s like someone ordered a mixed salad and got a bowl of croutons. This setup lives and dies with equity markets; there’s no built‑in stabilizer for ugly years, just a promise that “it’ll come back eventually.” That’s fine if the time horizon is long and the stomach is strong, but the label shouldn’t pretend this is middle‑of‑the‑road. Takeaway: if true balance is the goal, other asset classes need to exist; if not, own that this is a full‑equity, ride‑or‑die approach.
Sectors
- Technology 24%
- Industrials 15%
- Financials 13%
- Consumer Discretionary 12%
- Energy 8%
- Health Care 7%
- Basic Materials 7%
- Telecommunications 7%
- Consumer Staples 4%
- Real Estate 2%
- Utilities 2%
Sector spread looks decent on paper, but there’s clearly a tech crush: 24% technology, then a mix of industrials, financials, cyclicals, and some small slices elsewhere. It’s not a single‑sector YOLO, but you’re tilted toward the growth engines that have already had a massive run. That’s fine if you accept that when tech sneezes, your portfolio catches pneumonia. The rest of the sectors do add some ballast, but not enough to change the story: this is an equity portfolio that needs the economy to keep humming. Takeaway: enjoy the upside, but know you signed up for mood swings when tech goes off script.
Regions
- North America 86%
- Europe Developed 6%
- Japan 5%
- Australasia 1%
- Africa/Middle East 1%
Geography screams “US or bust”: 86% North America, with Europe and Japan basically side characters. This is very common for US investors, but let’s not pretend it’s globally neutral. You’re heavily tied to one economy, one currency, and one political system, even if many US companies are global in revenue terms. In a world where anything from policy shocks to tax changes can smack US markets, that’s a chunky home bias. Takeaway: if you ever want to dial down that single‑country dependence, small tweaks toward other regions can help without blowing up the core design.
Market capitalization
- Mid-cap 28%
- Mega-cap 23%
- Small-cap 21%
- Large-cap 19%
- Micro-cap 9%
Market cap mix is actually one of the more interesting parts: mega 23%, big 19%, mid 28%, small 21%, micro 9%. Translation: this isn’t just worshipping the usual mega‑cap gods; you’ve invited a full goblin army of smaller names. That lines up with the small‑cap value tilt, which can be powerful over the long term but feels like strapping your portfolio to a roller coaster in the short term. Takeaway: you’re not hiding from volatility—you’re actively courting it by loading up the smaller end of the market in a pretty serious way.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 3.40%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AA Apple Inc 3.24%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 2.43%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 1.68%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 1.51%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 1.25%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 1.19%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 1.17%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 0.96%
Part of fund(s):- MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
TS Tesla Inc 0.95%
Part of fund(s):- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- Top 10 total 17.77%
Look-through shows the usual celebrity megacap tech cast: NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Tesla all crowding the stage. That’s the Vanguard total market plus some momentum glitter doing exactly what they do: piling into market darlings. The overlap isn’t crazy for a US-heavy portfolio, but you’re more concentrated in Big Tech than your top-level fund list suggests. And remember, this is only using ETF top-10s, so real overlap is probably higher. Takeaway: don’t kid yourself that this is a quirky contrarian setup; under the hood, you still worship at the altar of the Magnificent Usual Suspects.
Factors
Factor profile is loud: heavy on size (small), big on value, solid dose of momentum. Factor exposure is like the ingredient label behind the pretty fund names, and yours reads “cheap, small, and trendy—please hold the safety.” Quality and low volatility aren’t the stars here; you’re leaning into return drivers that shine in some regimes and faceplant in others. Momentum plus value is a slightly chaotic pairing: chasing winners while also digging in the bargain bin. Takeaway: this setup will likely crush it in the right environment and sulk hard in the wrong one—don’t expect smooth, boring compounding.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 55.00% 55.9% -
Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 15.00% 17.3% -
MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF
Weight: 15.00% 14.7% -
Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 15.00% 12.1%
Risk contribution shows who’s actually shaking the portfolio, not just who takes up space. Your 55% in Vanguard Total Stock Market brings ~56% of total risk—on brand. The US small value ETF is only 15% weight but 17% of risk, so it’s punching above its weight class. International small value is comparatively tame, contributing less risk than its weight. Top three positions driving nearly 88% of total risk means you’re basically running a three‑engine plane. Takeaway: if volatility ever feels a bit wild, trimming or reweighting those high risk contributors is the lever, not obsessing over tiny slices elsewhere.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
Risk vs. return is where the math quietly judges you. The current portfolio has an expected return of ~24.6% with 18% risk and a Sharpe ratio of 1.25. The optimal mix of the *same holdings* could hit a Sharpe of 2.0 with similar or even lower risk and way higher expected return. Translation: you left efficiency on the table. The efficient frontier is the “best you could do with what you already own,” and you’re sitting noticeably below it. Takeaway: even without changing any funds, simply reweighting closer to the optimal or same‑risk mix could make this setup meaningfully smarter.
Dividends
- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 3.10%
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.70%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.20%
- MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF 0.30%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.42%
Total yield at ~1.42% is “don’t quit your day job” territory. The international small value sleeve does some heavy lifting at 3.1%, while momentum barely bothers at 0.3%. This is clearly a growth and factor-tilt portfolio, not a dividend paycheck machine. Nothing wrong with that, but if someone expects comforting cash flow during nasty markets, this setup won’t send many love letters. Takeaway: dividends here are a side effect, not a design feature; the real goal is capital growth, not yield‑driven income.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 0.36%
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.11%
Total TER of ~0.11% is impressively low for a portfolio that’s trying to be fancy. You managed to get small cap value tilts and a momentum sleeve without lighting your wallet on fee fire. Vanguard at 0.03% is doing its usual charity work, while Avantis is reasonably priced for what it’s doing. Costs are one of the few things you can actually control, and here you’ve kept the leak tiny. Grudging compliment: for all the factor theatrics, you didn’t fall for expensive shiny toys. Takeaway: keep it that way—low ongoing costs make a huge difference over decades.
What next?
Ready to invest in this portfolio?
Select a broker that fits your needs and watch for low fees to maximize your returns.
Create your own report?
Join our community!
The information provided on this platform is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial or investment advice. Insightfolio does not provide investment advice, personalized recommendations, or guidance regarding the purchase, holding, or sale of financial assets. The tools and content are intended for educational purposes only and are not tailored to individual circumstances, financial needs, or objectives.
Insightfolio assumes no liability for the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Users are solely responsible for verifying the information and making independent decisions based on their own research and careful consideration. Use of the platform should not replace consultation with qualified financial professionals.
Investments involve risks. Users should be aware that the value of investments may fluctuate and that past performance is not an indicator of future results. Investment decisions should be based on personal financial goals, risk tolerance, and independent evaluation of relevant information.
Insightfolio does not endorse or guarantee the suitability of any particular financial product, security, or strategy. Any projections, forecasts, or hypothetical scenarios presented on the platform are for illustrative purposes only and are not guarantees of future outcomes.
By accessing the services, information, or content offered by Insightfolio, users acknowledge and agree to these terms of the disclaimer. If you do not agree to these terms, please do not use our platform.
Instrument logos provided by Elbstream.
Help us improve Insightfolio
Your feedback makes a difference! Share your thoughts in our quick survey. Take the survey