Leveraged growth mix combining gold long bonds and strong momentum with concentrated risk in one holding
Report created on Aug 17, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
-
GL SPDR® Gold Shares
GLD - US78463V1070 25.00% -
KM KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF
KMLM - US5007676522 25.00% -
TQ ProShares UltraPro QQQ
TQQQ - US74347X8314 25.00% -
ZR PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded Fund
ZROZ - US72201R8824 25.00%
This portfolio is split evenly across four ETFs, each with a 25% weight, but they play very different roles. One is a leveraged growth fund, one holds long‑dated US government bonds, one tracks gold, and one is an alternative strategy fund. So structurally it looks simple and even, yet the underlying behavior is not balanced at all. Equal weights do not mean equal impact on returns or risk, especially when leverage and very long‑duration bonds are involved. The result is a portfolio that blends growth, inflation protection, and interest‑rate sensitivity, but in practice these pieces drive the portfolio quite unevenly through market ups and downs.
Growth
Over the period shown, $1,000 grew to about $2,025, matching a 13.28% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). CAGR is the “average speed” of growth per year, smoothing out the bumps along the way. The portfolio kept pace with the global market but lagged the US market’s 15.76% by 2.48% per year. The max drawdown, or worst peak‑to‑trough drop, was -36.77%, noticeably deeper and longer than both benchmarks, taking almost two years to recover. Only 18 days made up 90% of returns, showing results were driven by a handful of very strong moves, which is typical of portfolios with leveraged components.
Projection
The forward projection uses a Monte Carlo simulation, which basically reruns history in thousands of shuffled ways to see many possible futures. Here, $1,000 has a median 15‑year outcome of about $1,934, with a wide “likely” range from roughly $1,542 to $2,458. The average simulated annual return is 4.77%, only modestly above the assumed cash outcome. This gap reflects both the strong historical upside and the high volatility feeding into the model. It is important to remember that Monte Carlo results are not forecasts; they simply show what might happen if patterns similar to the past repeat, which they may not.
Asset classes
- No data 48%
- Other 28%
- Stocks 23%
The asset class view shows 23% in stocks, 28% in “Other,” and 48% as “No data,” where the system cannot assign a category. That incomplete picture limits how precisely diversification can be judged from asset classes alone. Still, it is clear that this is not a classic stock‑only mix; there is meaningful exposure to alternatives like gold and long‑duration bonds. Blending assets that behave differently from stocks can help smooth some market swings, but leveraged equity and long‑dated bonds can each be volatile in their own right. The mix ends up more complex than a simple stock‑versus‑bond split would suggest.
Sectors
- Technology 14%
- Telecommunications 3%
- Consumer Discretionary 3%
- Consumer Staples 2%
- Industrials 1%
- Health Care 1%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Sector data, based only on the equity portions, shows a clear tilt toward technology, with smaller slices in telecom, consumer areas, industrials, and health care. This pattern is consistent with exposure to major growth and tech‑driven companies, which often dominate broad growth indices. Sector concentration matters because different parts of the economy react differently to interest rates, inflation, and business cycles. Tech‑heavy allocations can benefit strongly during periods of innovation and easy financial conditions but may experience sharper pullbacks when rates rise or when investors rotate toward more defensive or income‑oriented sectors.
Regions
- North America 25%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Geographic data currently attributes about 25% of the portfolio to North America within the equity look‑through. Gold and long‑duration Treasuries are not captured in this equity geography view, so the true economic exposure is more US‑centric than the numbers suggest, given the US focus of the alternative strategy, bonds, and leveraged equity fund. Geography matters because returns and risks are tied to different economies, political systems, and currencies. A strong North American tilt has historically benefited from US market leadership, but also means the portfolio’s fortunes are closely linked to the performance and policy environment of a single region.
Market capitalization
- No data 25%
- Mega-cap 5%
- Large-cap 3%
- Mid-cap 1%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
On the market‑cap side, the visible equity slice leans toward mega‑cap and large‑cap companies, with a smaller mid‑cap presence and a meaningful “No data” bucket. Large and mega‑cap holdings tend to be more established businesses with deep liquidity and broad analyst coverage. They can sometimes be more resilient than smaller firms in stressed markets, though they still move with overall market sentiment. The limited mid‑cap exposure suggests the portfolio is not strongly targeting the traditional “small size” premium that some investors pursue. Instead, it is more aligned with mainstream large‑company equity risk layered on top of the non‑equity holdings.
True holdings
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FG Euro Bund Future June 26 13.57%
Part of fund(s):- KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF
-
IQ Proshares Genius Money Market ETF 3.81%
Part of fund(s):- ProShares UltraPro QQQ
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 0.80%
Part of fund(s):- ProShares UltraPro QQQ
-
AA Apple Inc. 0.79%
Part of fund(s):- ProShares UltraPro QQQ
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 0.47%
Part of fund(s):- ProShares UltraPro QQQ
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 0.43%
Part of fund(s):- ProShares UltraPro QQQ
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 0.43%
Part of fund(s):- ProShares UltraPro QQQ
-
AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc 0.36%
Part of fund(s):- ProShares UltraPro QQQ
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 0.33%
Part of fund(s):- ProShares UltraPro QQQ
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 0.31%
Part of fund(s):- ProShares UltraPro QQQ
- Top 10 total 21.30%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
The look‑through holdings show that a handful of mega‑cap tech and communication names appear, but each with relatively small total exposure under 1%. The single largest look‑through item is actually a futures position in Euro Bunds via an ETF, emphasizing that derivatives and fixed income also sit underneath the surface. Because only ETF top‑10s are used, real overlap is likely higher than reported, especially for popular names like Apple, Microsoft, and NVIDIA that commonly appear across funds. Hidden overlap means the portfolio can be more concentrated in certain companies or themes than the headline list of four ETFs might suggest.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
Factor exposure shows a very low tilt to value, with high tilts to momentum and quality and roughly neutral yield and low‑volatility characteristics. Factors are like the underlying “traits” driving returns; momentum reflects stocks that have been recent winners, while quality leans toward stronger balance sheets and profitability. A high momentum tilt often does well in strong, trending markets but can see sharper drops when trends reverse quickly. Very low value exposure means less focus on cheaper‑priced stocks relative to fundamentals, which can be a headwind when value styles outperform. The quality tilt can help partially offset risk by favoring financially stronger companies.
Risk contribution
-
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Weight: 25.00% 80.3% -
PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded Fund
Weight: 25.00% 10.7% -
SPDR® Gold Shares
Weight: 25.00% 10.1% -
KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF
Weight: 25.00% 0.0%
Risk contribution highlights how differently each 25% position behaves. The leveraged equity ETF, at 25% weight, contributes over 80% of total portfolio risk, more than three times its share by weight. In contrast, long‑duration Treasuries and gold together contribute just about 20% of risk, and the alternative strategy shows near‑zero measured contribution over the period. Risk contribution measures how much each holding drives overall ups and downs, not just how big it is. This setup means the portfolio’s day‑to‑day experience is dominated by the leveraged equity fund, so its performance and volatility largely dictate the portfolio’s overall ride.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The risk‑versus‑return chart shows the current portfolio below the efficient frontier by about 6.68 percentage points at its risk level. The Sharpe ratio, which measures return per unit of risk above the risk‑free rate, is 0.56 for the current mix, compared with 1.15 for the optimal combination using the same holdings. This means the historical data suggests the same four ETFs could be blended in different weights to achieve better risk‑adjusted returns. The minimum‑variance version would cut risk significantly but with much lower expected return. Overall, the chart indicates there is room to rearrange weights to make the existing ingredients work more efficiently together.
Dividends
- KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF 4.50%
- ProShares UltraPro QQQ 0.50%
- PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded Fund 5.60%
- Weighted yield (per year) 2.65%
The portfolio’s total dividend yield is about 2.65%, coming mainly from the zero‑coupon Treasury ETF’s effective distribution yield and the alternative index strategy, with a very small contribution from the leveraged equity fund. Yield measures the cash income relative to the portfolio’s value, separate from price changes. For a growth‑oriented, leveraged mix, a mid‑single‑digit yield is relatively modest and suggests that most of the return historically has come from price movement rather than income. Dividends can help cushion downturns a bit and provide some return even when markets are flat, but here they are a secondary driver compared with capital gains and losses.
Ongoing product costs
- SPDR® Gold Shares 0.40%
- KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF 0.90%
- ProShares UltraPro QQQ 0.88%
- PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded Fund 0.15%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.58%
The weighted total expense ratio (TER) of the portfolio is about 0.58% per year. TER represents the annual operating cost of the ETFs as a percentage of invested assets. Costs matter because they come out every year, regardless of performance, and compound over time. In this mix, the gold ETF and especially the alternative strategy fund carry higher fees, while the long‑duration Treasury ETF is relatively inexpensive. Overall, these costs are higher than the cheapest plain index funds but not extreme for a portfolio using specialized strategies and leverage. Keeping an eye on whether the extra complexity justifies the higher fees is worthwhile.
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