Your portfolio has a strong emphasis on the US market, particularly in large-cap stocks, with a significant allocation to technology through specific ETFs. The presence of the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF and Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares as the core holdings, making up 70% of the portfolio, suggests a solid foundation in US equities. However, this heavy concentration also indicates a potential overlap in holdings, which might limit diversification benefits.
The historical performance, with a CAGR of 17.88%, is impressive, demonstrating strong growth over the assessed period. The maximum drawdown of -34.70% suggests that while the portfolio has experienced significant volatility, it has also recovered well, in line with its growth profile. The days contributing to 90% of returns highlight the impact of short-term gains, underscoring the importance of staying invested during market highs.
Monte Carlo simulations, projecting a wide range of potential outcomes based on historical data, suggest a median annualized return of 19.88%. While this tool provides valuable insights into possible future performance, it's crucial to remember that these projections are based on past trends, which may not always predict future movements accurately.
The portfolio's asset allocation is heavily skewed towards stocks (99%), with a minimal cash reserve (1%). This allocation aligns with a growth-oriented strategy but carries higher volatility and risk. Diversifying across more asset classes could provide a buffer during market downturns and reduce overall portfolio risk.
Sector allocation shows a strong tilt towards technology, constituting 38% of the portfolio. While the tech sector has historically delivered robust growth, it's also prone to higher volatility. Balancing this with allocations to less volatile sectors, like consumer defensive or utilities, could mitigate risk without significantly dampening growth potential.
Geographically, the portfolio is overwhelmingly focused on North America (95%), with minimal exposure to international markets. This concentration enhances exposure to the US economy's growth but also increases susceptibility to its market cycles. Expanding into more diverse international holdings could reduce geographic risk and tap into growth opportunities abroad.
The market capitalization breakdown shows a preference for mega (39%) and big (30%) cap stocks, which are typically less volatile than smaller companies. However, the inclusion of small and micro-cap exposures, albeit limited, introduces higher growth potential at the cost of increased risk.
The high correlation between the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF and Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares indicates redundancy, as these funds likely hold many of the same stocks. Reducing overlap by reallocating from one could enhance diversification without sacrificing the growth objective.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
Optimizing for the Efficient Frontier could further enhance the risk-return profile. Focusing on diversifying beyond highly correlated assets and into underrepresented sectors or geographies may achieve a more efficient allocation. This adjustment aims to maintain or improve returns while reducing portfolio volatility.
The portfolio's average dividend yield is 1.11%, which contributes to total returns, especially in volatile or down markets. While growth is the primary focus, dividends provide a passive income stream and a sign of corporate health and stability.
With an average total expense ratio (TER) of 0.06%, the portfolio is efficiently managed, minimizing costs that can erode long-term returns. This low cost structure is commendable and aligns with best practices for maximizing investment growth.
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