Momentum tilted stock portfolio with strong recent returns and concentrated exposure to US growth themes

Report created on May 13, 2026

Risk profile Info

5/7
Growth
Less risk More risk

Diversification profile Info

3/5
Moderately Diversified
Less diversification More diversification

Positions

This portfolio is built entirely from equity ETFs, with a clear tilt toward momentum strategies. The largest position is a US large-cap momentum fund at 40%, supported by mid-cap and international momentum funds that together push momentum-focused exposure close to 70% of the portfolio. The rest is split across a broad S&P 500 fund, a small-cap value ETF, a US dividend ETF, and a dedicated semiconductor fund. Structurally, this creates a growth-leaning, factor-driven equity mix rather than a classic broad market index approach. The dominance of a few momentum funds means overall behavior will be largely shaped by how momentum stocks perform, especially in fast-moving or trend-reversal markets.

Growth Info

Over the period from late 2019 to mid-2026, a hypothetical $1,000 in this portfolio grew to about $3,565. That works out to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.26%, which is how much it grew per year on average, similar to average speed on a road trip. This comfortably outpaced both the US market at 16.31% and the global market at 13.77%. The maximum drawdown, or worst peak-to-trough drop, was about -33.6%, roughly in line with the benchmarks. The recovery from the 2020 drawdown took about four months. Strong outperformance with similar worst-case falls suggests the factor tilts have historically added return without increasing the deepest historical drop, though this may not repeat.

Projection Info

The Monte Carlo projection models many possible future paths using past return and volatility patterns, like running 1,000 alternate history simulations. For a $1,000 starting point over 15 years, the median outcome is about $2,720, with a wide “middle” band between roughly $1,774 and $4,146. The very broad range from about $847 to $7,756 highlights how uncertain long-term equity outcomes can be. The average annual return across simulations is 8.03%, noticeably lower than the recent historical CAGR, underscoring that the past few years were unusually strong. These projections are not forecasts; they just show what could happen if future patterns rhymed with the past, which is never guaranteed.

Asset classes Info

  • Stocks
    100%

All of this portfolio sits in stocks, with no allocation to bonds, cash, or alternative assets. That makes it straightforward to understand: returns are fully tied to equity markets rather than interest rates or credit markets. The tradeoff is that during equity bear markets there is no internal shock absorber from more defensive asset classes. Many broad market portfolios blend stocks with bonds to smooth the ride; here the risk score of 5/7 reflects that concentrated equity exposure. On the positive side, within equities the mix spans different styles and company sizes, but overall risk and return will still be governed by how global stock markets perform over time.

Sectors Info

  • Technology
    35%
  • Industrials
    18%
  • Financials
    12%
  • Health Care
    6%
  • Telecommunications
    6%
  • Energy
    6%
  • Consumer Discretionary
    4%
  • Consumer Staples
    4%
  • Basic Materials
    4%
  • Utilities
    3%
  • Real Estate
    2%

Sector-wise, the portfolio has a noticeable technology tilt at 35%, with industrials at 18% and financials at 12% forming the next big groups. Remaining sectors are more modestly represented, with health care at 6% and several others between 2–6%. Relative to a broad global equity benchmark, this tech share is on the high side, and the dedicated semiconductor ETF further intensifies exposure to one fast-moving industry. Tech-heavy portfolios can benefit strongly when innovation and growth themes are rewarded but may feel more volatility when interest rates rise or when sentiment turns against high-growth areas. The presence of dividend and value components helps diversify sector behavior somewhat, though tech remains a clear driver.

Regions Info

  • North America
    88%
  • Europe Developed
    7%
  • Japan
    3%
  • Asia Developed
    1%
  • Latin America
    1%
  • Africa/Middle East
    1%

Geographically, about 88% of the portfolio is in North America, with limited exposure to developed Europe (7%), Japan (3%), and small slices in other regions. A global market index typically has a strong US tilt too, but usually with a smaller North America share and more weight to the rest of the world. This portfolio’s heavier US concentration means performance is closely tied to one region’s economy, corporate earnings, and currency. Historically, that tilt has been rewarded, as seen in the strong outperformance versus the global market. However, it also means regional diversification is moderate rather than broad, so any prolonged US-specific slowdown would be more keenly felt here.

Market capitalization Info

  • Large-cap
    36%
  • Mega-cap
    31%
  • Mid-cap
    18%
  • Small-cap
    11%
  • Micro-cap
    4%

By market capitalization, the portfolio leans toward larger companies, with mega-caps at 31% and large-caps at 36%. Mid-caps (18%), small-caps (11%), and micro-caps (4%) round out the rest. That mix is more diversified across size than a pure large-cap index but still anchored by big, established firms. Large and mega-caps tend to be more stable and widely followed, whereas smaller companies can be more volatile but sometimes offer higher growth potential. The dedicated small-cap value ETF meaningfully boosts exposure to smaller, cheaper stocks, which behave differently from mega-cap growth names. This spread across sizes can help performance patterns be less tied to any single segment of the market-cap spectrum.

True holdings Info

  • NVIDIA Corporation
    5.31%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
    • VanEck Semiconductor ETF
    • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
  • Broadcom Inc
    3.68%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
    • VanEck Semiconductor ETF
    • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
  • Micron Technology Inc
    3.40%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
    • VanEck Semiconductor ETF
  • Alphabet Inc Class A
    2.50%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
    • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
  • Alphabet Inc Class C
    1.99%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
    • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
  • Advanced Micro Devices Inc
    1.77%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
    • VanEck Semiconductor ETF
  • Johnson & Johnson
    1.64%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
  • Intel Corporation
    1.63%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
    • VanEck Semiconductor ETF
  • Lam Research Corp
    1.59%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
    • VanEck Semiconductor ETF
  • Exxon Mobil Corp
    1.21%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
  • Top 10 total 24.73%

Looking through ETF top holdings, NVIDIA stands out at about 5.3% of the portfolio, with other semiconductor names like Broadcom, Micron, AMD, Intel, and Lam Research also appearing. This reveals a notable “hidden” cluster around advanced chipmakers, amplified by both the semiconductor ETF and momentum funds that hold these names. Alphabet’s two share classes together add roughly 4.5%, and large blue chips like Johnson & Johnson and Exxon Mobil also show up. Because only ETF top-10 data is used, overlap is likely understated, but it still signals that a handful of big technology and semiconductor companies quietly drive a meaningful slice of portfolio behavior beyond simple ETF weights.

Factors Info

Value
Preference for undervalued stocks
Neutral
Data availability: 100%
Size
Exposure to smaller companies
Neutral
Data availability: 100%
Momentum
Exposure to recently outperforming stocks
High
Data availability: 100%
Quality
Preference for financially healthy companies
Neutral
Data availability: 100%
Yield
Preference for dividend-paying stocks
Low
Data availability: 100%
Low Volatility
Preference for stable, lower-risk stocks
Neutral
Data availability: 100%

Factor exposure shows a strong tilt toward momentum at 66%, where 50% would be market-like. Factor investing targets traits like momentum, value, or quality that research links to long-run returns, similar to choosing ingredients in a recipe. A high momentum tilt means the portfolio tends to hold stocks that have been recent winners, which can boost returns when trends persist but can also snap back harder when leadership changes suddenly. Other factors sit roughly near neutral, except yield at 40%, which is slightly below market-like levels. That means income is a secondary objective; price appreciation and trend following are the primary drivers here.

Risk contribution Info

  • Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
    Weight: 40.00%
    40.7%
  • Invesco S&P MidCap Momentum ETF
    Weight: 17.00%
    18.4%
  • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
    Weight: 11.00%
    10.1%
  • Invesco S&P International Developed Momentum ETF
    Weight: 12.00%
    9.8%
  • Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
    Weight: 8.00%
    8.7%
  • Top 5 risk contribution 87.7%

Risk contribution measures how much each holding adds to overall ups and downs, which can differ from its weight. The main US momentum ETF is 40% of the portfolio and contributes about 41% of the total risk, so its impact is almost one-for-one. The mid-cap momentum and small-cap value funds have risk contributions slightly above their weights, reflecting the choppier nature of mid and smaller companies. Interestingly, the international momentum ETF and S&P 500 ETF contribute slightly less risk than their weights, hinting at some diversification benefit. Overall, the top three holdings make up about 69% of portfolio risk, so day-to-day performance is heavily shaped by this core trio.

Risk vs. return

This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.

Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.

The efficient frontier chart compares the portfolio’s risk and return to the best combinations possible using the same holdings. The current portfolio has a Sharpe ratio of 0.81, a measure of return per unit of risk, and sits about 2 percentage points below the frontier at its risk level. That means a different mix of these same ETFs could theoretically deliver higher expected return for the same volatility, or similar return with less volatility. The “optimal” portfolio point shows much higher return but also higher risk, while the minimum variance point offers lower risk with a comparable Sharpe ratio to your current mix. In short, the structure is decent but not fully optimized.

Dividends Info

  • Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.30%
  • Invesco S&P International Developed Momentum ETF 3.50%
  • Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF 3.30%
  • VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.20%
  • Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.70%
  • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.00%
  • Invesco S&P MidCap Momentum ETF 0.60%
  • Weighted yield (per year) 1.26%

The overall dividend yield of about 1.26% is modest, especially compared with broader dividend-focused portfolios. The Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF and the international momentum fund provide the highest yields in this mix, around the low to mid-3% range, while the semiconductor and momentum funds contribute little income. Dividends can be a steady return component, especially in flat markets, but for this portfolio the main engine has clearly been capital gains. The presence of a quality dividend ETF does introduce a slightly more defensive, income-generating slice, yet the portfolio’s overall design is still more growth and factor-driven than income-oriented.

Ongoing product costs Info

  • Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
  • Invesco S&P International Developed Momentum ETF 0.25%
  • Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF 0.06%
  • VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.35%
  • Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
  • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
  • Invesco S&P MidCap Momentum ETF 0.34%
  • Weighted costs total (per year) 0.18%

Total ongoing fund costs, measured by the Total Expense Ratio (TER), average about 0.18% per year. That’s the portion of assets paid annually to fund providers to manage and run the ETFs. In the context of actively tilted strategies like momentum and small-cap value, this blended cost is impressively low and compares favorably with many factor funds. Lower costs mean more of the portfolio’s gross return is kept rather than eaten by fees, which compounds meaningfully over long horizons. It’s also notable that the largest broad market ETF carries a very low TER, helping anchor the overall fee level while still allowing room for more specialized, slightly higher-cost funds.

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