This portfolio is heavily weighted towards US equities, with a 30% allocation in the Invesco QQQ Trust, showcasing a preference for technology and growth stocks. The inclusion of both the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF and Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares, each comprising 20% of the portfolio, alongside the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF and Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index Fund ETF Shares, reflects a balanced approach between growth and income. However, this composition indicates low diversity, with a 100% allocation in stocks and a significant overlap in holdings, particularly within the US market.
With a historical Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 15.80% and a maximum drawdown of -31.97%, the portfolio has demonstrated strong performance, albeit with notable volatility. The days contributing to 90% of the returns underline the impact of short-term gains on overall performance. This historical perspective suggests resilience in growth but also highlights the risks associated with a concentrated equity portfolio.
Monte Carlo simulations, using 1,000 iterations, predict a wide range of outcomes with a median projected growth of 593.4%. The simulations indicate a high likelihood of positive returns, but the wide range between the 5th and 67th percentiles underscores the inherent uncertainty and risk in the portfolio's current allocation. This forward-looking analysis is a valuable tool for understanding potential volatility and the importance of risk management.
The portfolio's exclusive focus on stocks, without any allocation to bonds, real estate, or alternative investments, limits its diversification. While stocks have historically provided higher returns compared to other asset classes, they also come with higher volatility. Diversifying across different asset classes can help mitigate risk and smooth out returns over time, especially in turbulent markets.
Sector allocation is heavily skewed towards technology, which constitutes 34% of the portfolio. This concentration increases exposure to sector-specific risks, such as regulatory changes or market sentiment shifts. While technology stocks have been strong performers, diversifying across a broader range of sectors could reduce volatility and improve the portfolio's resilience against sector-specific downturns.
The geographic allocation is almost entirely focused on North America (99%), with negligible exposure to international markets. This geographic concentration enhances the portfolio's vulnerability to regional economic downturns and misses out on potential growth opportunities in emerging and developed markets outside the US.
The portfolio's market capitalization breakdown shows a preference for large and mega-cap stocks, which are typically less volatile than smaller companies. However, this focus may limit potential upside from growth in smaller, more dynamic companies. Incorporating a broader mix of market caps could enhance returns and diversification.
The portfolio exhibits high correlation between certain ETFs, particularly those focused on the US market and dividend yields. This redundancy suggests that the portfolio may not be as diversified as it could be, as similar assets tend to move in tandem, especially during market downturns. Reducing overlap by reallocating assets could enhance diversification and risk management.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
Optimizing the portfolio involves addressing the high correlation between certain assets to reduce overlap and enhance diversification. By reallocating funds from highly correlated ETFs to underrepresented sectors, asset classes, or geographies, the portfolio can achieve a more balanced risk-return profile. Emphasizing the Efficient Frontier could guide these adjustments, aiming for an allocation that maximizes returns for a given level of risk.
Dividend yields contribute to the portfolio's total return, with an average yield of 1.48%. This focus on dividend-paying ETFs provides a steady income stream, which can be particularly valuable in volatile or declining markets. However, an overemphasis on dividend yield should not come at the expense of growth potential or diversification.
The portfolio benefits from relatively low total expense ratios (TER), averaging 0.09% across all holdings. This cost efficiency is commendable, as lower costs directly translate to higher net returns over time. Maintaining a focus on cost-effective investments is a prudent strategy for long-term wealth accumulation.
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