Concentrated US growth portfolio tilted to technology and aligned with efficient risk return tradeoff
Report created on Apr 3, 2026Risk profile
- Secure Speculative
The risk profile, derived from past market volatility, reflects the level of risk the portfolio is exposed to. This assessment helps align your investments with your financial goals and comfort with market fluctuations.
Diversification profile
- Focused Diversified
The diversification assessment evaluates the spread of investments across asset classes, regions, and sectors. This ensures a balanced mix, reducing risk and maximizing returns by not concentrating in any single area.
Positions
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SP SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
SPY - US78462F1030 63.00% -
FT Fidelity® MSCI Information Technology Index ETF
FTEC - US3160928087 37.00%
This portfolio is extremely simple, holding just two US-listed ETFs: a broad US market fund and a dedicated technology fund. With 63% in the broad ETF and 37% in technology, every dollar is in stocks and almost entirely in large US companies. That simplicity makes it easy to understand and manage, but it also means the overall behavior is heavily driven by US equity markets and especially the tech segment. A setup like this can work well for someone who wants stock-focused growth and is comfortable with swings, but it leaves little room for the stabilizing effect that other asset classes or regions might bring during choppy markets.
Growth
Over the last decade, $1,000 in this mix grew to about $4,801, with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 17.06%. CAGR is the “average yearly speed” of growth over the whole period. That’s meaningfully ahead of both the US market (13.90%) and global market (11.52%). The worst drop, or max drawdown, was about -33%, similar to the broader market in early 2020, but the recovery was fairly quick at around four months. This combo has historically rewarded you with higher returns without taking on noticeably worse crashes, though that outperformance was heavily linked to a very strong decade for US tech, which may not repeat.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection runs 1,000 simulations of the next 15 years using patterns from past returns and volatility. Think of it as replaying history with small random twists to see a range of possible futures, not a single prediction. The median outcome turns $1,000 into about $2,783, with most paths between roughly $1,823 and $4,256, and a 74% chance of finishing positive. The average simulated annual return is around 8%. These numbers are helpful for planning, but they’re still based on history; if the next 15 years are very different from the past—especially for US tech—the actual results could land well outside these ranges.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of the money here is in stocks, with no allocation to bonds, cash-like instruments, or alternative assets. That’s very growth-oriented: stocks historically offer higher long-term returns but also larger short-term swings. With no defensive assets in the mix, the portfolio will likely rise more in strong markets but also fall harder when stocks sell off. Many broad “all-weather” allocations blend in some bonds or cash to cushion drawdowns and smooth the ride. In this setup, risk management has to come from position sizing and time horizon rather than from mixing in fundamentally different asset classes with naturally calmer behavior.
Sectors
- Technology 58%
- Financials 8%
- Telecommunications 7%
- Consumer Discretionary 6%
- Health Care 6%
- Industrials 6%
- Consumer Staples 3%
- Energy 2%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 1%
- Basic Materials 1%
Sector-wise, the portfolio is dominated by technology at about 58%, far above typical broad-market allocations. Other sectors like financials, telecom, health care, industrials, and consumer areas have modest single-digit weights. This tech-heavy tilt has helped performance during years when digital, software, and semiconductor businesses led the market, especially in low-rate, growth-friendly environments. The flip side is higher sensitivity to interest rate changes, regulatory shifts, and sentiment about innovation or AI. If tech enters a multi-year lagging phase, the portfolio has limited exposure to sectors that sometimes lead when growth stocks cool off, such as more defensive or economically sensitive industries.
Regions
- North America 99%
Geographically, about 99% of the equity exposure is in North America, effectively making this a single-region portfolio. That has worked very well over the last decade, as US equities outpaced many other markets. However, it also ties your outcome tightly to one economy, one political system, and largely one currency. Global benchmarks usually have a sizeable slice in other developed and emerging regions. A US-only stance can be a deliberate choice, but it means missing potential diversification from markets that may outperform in different economic cycles, policy regimes, or commodity environments. Currency-wise, everything is aligned to the $ rather than spread across multiple currencies.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 48%
- Large-cap 31%
- Mid-cap 15%
- Small-cap 4%
- Micro-cap 1%
Most of the portfolio leans toward the very largest companies: about 48% in mega-cap and 31% in large-cap, with only a modest slice in mid, small, and micro caps. Big companies tend to be more stable, widely analyzed, and liquid, which can reduce some company-specific risk and make trading easier. At the same time, smaller firms sometimes provide higher growth potential and different return drivers over long periods. This cap profile means the portfolio will behave a lot like a large-cap US index, amplified by its tech tilt. It’s less exposed to the more volatile, idiosyncratic world of small caps that can zig when mega caps zag.
True holdings
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NV NVIDIA Corporation 11.47%
Part of fund(s):- Fidelity® MSCI Information Technology Index ETF
- SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
-
AA Apple Inc 9.76%
Part of fund(s):- Fidelity® MSCI Information Technology Index ETF
- SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 6.96%
Part of fund(s):- Fidelity® MSCI Information Technology Index ETF
- SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
-
AV Broadcom Inc 3.35%
Part of fund(s):- Fidelity® MSCI Information Technology Index ETF
- SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 2.29%
Part of fund(s):- SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 1.96%
Part of fund(s):- SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 1.56%
Part of fund(s):- SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 1.47%
Part of fund(s):- SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
-
TS Tesla Inc 1.19%
Part of fund(s):- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
-
BR Berkshire Hathaway Inc 0.98%
Part of fund(s):- SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
- Top 10 total 41.00%
Looking through the ETFs, a lot of risk quietly clusters in a handful of mega-cap tech names. NVIDIA, Apple, and Microsoft alone add up to roughly 28% of the portfolio exposure based on top holdings, and that’s before counting any overlap beyond the top 10 lists. Overlap means the same company appears in both ETFs, concentrating your bets even if it looks diversified on the surface. When those big names do well, the portfolio gets a strong boost; when they stumble, the effect is magnified. For someone wanting more balance, one way to think is how comfortable they are with so much of their outcome tied to a small set of well-known giants.
Factors
Across classic investment factors, exposures are mostly neutral, meaning they look broadly similar to the overall market rather than strongly tilted. Factor exposure is like checking which “traits” your portfolio has—such as value, momentum, or quality—that research links to long-run returns. The one notable point is value, which is on the low side, indicating a mild tilt away from cheaper-looking stocks and toward more growth-oriented names. Combined with the tech focus, that suggests the portfolio may shine in periods when growth and innovation are rewarded, but might lag in environments where investors favor lower-priced, more cyclical or “old economy” businesses that score higher on value metrics.
Risk contribution
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SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Weight: 63.00% 55.6% -
Fidelity® MSCI Information Technology Index ETF
Weight: 37.00% 44.4%
Risk contribution shows how much each holding drives the portfolio’s overall ups and downs, which can differ from its percentage weight. Here, the broad US ETF is 63% of the portfolio but contributes around 56% of the risk, meaning it’s relatively stable compared to its size. The tech ETF, at 37% weight, contributes about 44% of the risk, punching above its weight due to higher volatility. That tells you the tech slice is the main lever for portfolio risk: dial it up and overall swings grow; dial it down and things calm noticeably. The current balance is still dominated by the broad ETF, but tech is a powerful risk amplifier.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the risk–return chart, the current portfolio sits right on or very close to the efficient frontier. The efficient frontier is the set of portfolios that offer the best possible return for each level of risk, given the same ingredients. The Sharpe ratio, which measures return per unit of risk above cash, is 0.67 for the current mix versus 0.86 for the theoretical optimal and 0.76 for the minimum-variance version. That means you’re already using these two ETFs in a very efficient way for the chosen risk level. Tweaking weights slightly could squeeze out a bit more risk-adjusted return, but you’re not leaving a big opportunity on the table with the current structure.
Dividends
- Fidelity® MSCI Information Technology Index ETF 0.40%
- SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust 0.90%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.72%
The portfolio’s overall dividend yield is around 0.72%, which is quite low compared to many income-focused strategies. Dividend yield is the annual cash payout as a percentage of the investment value, like rent from a property. The tech ETF has an especially low yield (0.40%), reflecting the fact that many growth companies prefer to reinvest profits rather than pay them out. For investors who care more about long-term capital growth than regular cash income, this can be perfectly fine. But for someone seeking steady payouts—for example, in retirement—this setup would likely need to be paired with higher-yielding assets elsewhere to meet income needs.
Ongoing product costs
- Fidelity® MSCI Information Technology Index ETF 0.08%
- SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust 0.10%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.09%
Total ongoing costs are very low, with a blended Total Expense Ratio (TER) of about 0.09%. TER is the annual fee charged by the funds as a percentage of your investment; lower fees let more of your returns stay compounding for you. This level is well below what many active funds charge and is very much in line with best practices for cost-conscious investing. Over decades, even a 0.3–0.5% difference in fees can add up to thousands of dollars on a sizable portfolio. Here, costs are clearly a strength and provide a solid foundation for long-term performance, especially paired with a straightforward ETF structure.
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