The portfolio is structured around three main investments: a broad market index fund and two ETFs, one focusing on high dividends and the other on the Nasdaq 100 with a high-income approach. This composition suggests a strategy that balances growth through broad market exposure with income generation via dividends. However, the significant overlap between the index fund and the Nasdaq ETF, both heavily weighted in technology, raises concerns about diversification.
Historically, the portfolio has shown impressive growth with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 18.17%. The maximum drawdown of -18.36% indicates a relatively moderate level of risk, considering the portfolio's strong performance. However, the reliance on a few days for the majority of returns (90% coming from just 8 days) suggests volatility and the potential for significant short-term risk.
Monte Carlo simulations project a wide range of potential outcomes, with a median increase of 1,007.4% in value. This optimistic projection underscores the portfolio's growth potential but also reflects the inherent uncertainty in relying on historical data for future performance. It's important to remember that these projections cannot guarantee future returns.
With 99% of the portfolio in stocks and only 1% in cash, the asset allocation underscores a strong preference for equity investments. This allocation is typical for investors seeking higher returns, albeit with a higher risk profile. The lack of fixed-income assets or alternative investments limits diversification, potentially increasing the portfolio's volatility.
The sector allocation is heavily skewed towards technology, which constitutes 36% of the portfolio. While tech stocks have historically offered substantial growth opportunities, this concentration increases susceptibility to sector-specific risks. Other sectors like financial services, communication services, and consumer defensive offer some balance but are significantly outweighed by the tech exposure.
Geographically, the portfolio is overwhelmingly focused on North America (97%), with minimal exposure to developed Europe and no presence in emerging markets or Asia. This concentration in the US market limits global diversification and exposure to potential growth in other regions.
The market capitalization breakdown shows a preference for larger companies, with 42% in mega-cap and 34% in large-cap stocks. This bias towards larger, more established companies may offer stability but can also limit growth potential compared to more balanced exposure that includes mid and small-cap stocks.
The high correlation between the Fidelity Zero Total Market Index Fund and the NEOS Nasdaq 100 High Income ETF indicates redundancy within the portfolio. This overlap dilutes the diversification benefits, as both investments tend to move in tandem, especially during market downturns.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The portfolio could benefit from optimization to improve the risk-return profile. Reducing the overlap between the Total Market Index Fund and the Nasdaq 100 High Income ETF could enhance diversification. Employing the Efficient Frontier model could help identify an asset allocation that offers the best possible return for the assumed level of risk.
The portfolio's dividend yield is notably high at 6.08%, driven primarily by the NEOS Nasdaq 100 High Income ETF's 14.20% yield. While this contributes significantly to the portfolio's income generation, it's essential to balance the pursuit of high dividends with the need for growth and diversification.
The portfolio's total expense ratio (TER) of 0.27% is relatively low, enhancing net returns. However, the NEOS ETF's higher individual cost (0.68%) compared to the Fidelity High Dividend ETF (0.15%) warrants consideration, especially given the overlap in market exposure.
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