Highly concentrated tech focused portfolio with strong recent growth and meaningful downside swings
Report created on Apr 23, 2026Risk profile
- Secure Speculative
The risk profile, derived from past market volatility, reflects the level of risk the portfolio is exposed to. This assessment helps align your investments with your financial goals and comfort with market fluctuations.
Diversification profile
- Focused Diversified
The diversification assessment evaluates the spread of investments across asset classes, regions, and sectors. This ensures a balanced mix, reducing risk and maximizing returns by not concentrating in any single area.
Positions
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MS Microsoft Corporation
MSFT - US5949181045 48.32% -
SM VanEck Semiconductor ETF
SMH - US92189F6768 44.44% -
SO SoFi Technologies Inc.
SOFI - US83406F1021 7.24%
This portfolio is extremely concentrated, holding just three positions, all in individual stocks or a single ETF. Almost half is in Microsoft, just under half in a semiconductor ETF, and a small but noticeable slice in SoFi. That means nearly every move is driven by a couple of large technology-related names rather than a broad basket. Concentration like this matters because each holding has a big say in overall results, both positive and negative. When things go well for these companies and their industry, the impact can be powerful. When sentiment turns against them, there is very little in the portfolio to offset those moves, so swings in value can be sharp and emotionally challenging.
Growth
Historically, the portfolio turned $1,000 into about $3,133 over the period, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.76%. CAGR is like your “average speed” per year over the whole trip, smoothing out bumps along the way. That growth has notably outpaced both the US market and the global market by a wide margin. The trade-off has been a maximum drawdown of about -42%, meaning at one point it fell that far from a previous peak before recovering. It also needed only 24 days to generate 90% of returns, showing results were driven by a handful of powerful days, which is typical for concentrated, growth-heavy portfolios.
Projection
The forward projection uses a Monte Carlo simulation, which basically runs the portfolio’s historical ups and downs thousands of times in different random sequences. It’s like shuffling a deck of past returns and seeing many alternate futures. In these simulations, the median outcome for $1,000 over 15 years is around $2,672, with a wide “likely” band from roughly $1,843 to $4,190. There’s also a long tail of both strong and weak outcomes, from about $962 to $7,529 in the 5–95% range. This highlights that even with historically strong growth, future paths can be very different, and past performance never guarantees similar results.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of the portfolio is in a single asset class: stocks. There is no allocation to bonds, cash-like instruments, or alternative assets. Sticking to one asset class keeps the story simple but also means there’s no built-in “buffer” from typically steadier holdings during equity market downturns. This 100% stock mix lines up with the aggressive risk classification and helps explain the sizable historical drawdowns. When comparing to broad benchmarks, many diversified portfolios mix in other asset classes to smooth the ride. Here, the portfolio is fully exposed to equity market risk, so overall performance will be tightly tied to how stocks, especially growth-oriented names, fare over time.
Sectors
- Technology 93%
- Financials 7%
Sector-wise, the portfolio is very tilted, with about 93% in technology and the remaining 7% in financials via SoFi. That heavy tech tilt means the portfolio is closely linked to themes like digital transformation, cloud computing, and semiconductors. In many broad benchmarks, technology is a large but not overwhelmingly dominant slice, so this portfolio goes well beyond “normal” tech exposure. Tech-heavy portfolios tend to do very well when innovation and growth stocks are in favor, but they can also be more sensitive to interest rate changes and shifts in risk appetite. The financials slice is small enough that it doesn’t meaningfully offset the portfolio’s tech behavior.
Regions
- North America 92%
- Asia Developed 5%
- Europe Developed 3%
Geographically, the portfolio is heavily concentrated in North America at about 92%, with modest exposure to developed Asia (around 5%) and Europe (around 3%), largely via the semiconductor ETF. Compared to global equity benchmarks, which spread more weight across multiple regions, this creates a clear home bias toward one economic and regulatory environment. That concentration means portfolio outcomes are strongly tied to US market conditions, currency, and policy decisions. The smaller slices in Asia and Europe do add some global flavor but are not large enough to significantly diversify away from US-driven risks. This regional tilt is a key driver of how the portfolio behaves in different global market environments.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 68%
- Large-cap 28%
- Mid-cap 4%
By market capitalization, the portfolio leans strongly toward mega-cap and large-cap companies, with about 68% in mega-cap, 28% in large-cap, and only a small 4% in mid-cap names. Market cap measures company size by stock market value, and larger firms tend to be more established, with more diversified operations than smaller ones. This tilt means the portfolio is tied closely to big, well-known companies that often dominate major indices. While large and mega caps can still be volatile—especially in fast-moving industries like technology and semiconductors—they generally behave differently from smaller, more speculative stocks. The minimal mid-cap exposure leaves relatively little participation in the potential added volatility and growth of smaller firms.
True holdings
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NV NVIDIA Corporation 8.37%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
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TS Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing 4.77%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
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AV Broadcom Inc 3.76%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
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IN Intel Corporation 2.52%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
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AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc 2.40%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
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MU Micron Technology Inc 2.14%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
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LR Lam Research Corp 2.10%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
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KL KLA Corporation 2.09%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- Top 10 total 83.71%
Looking through the ETF’s top holdings, concentration becomes even clearer. Microsoft alone is 48% of the portfolio, and companies like NVIDIA, TSMC, Broadcom, Intel, AMD, Micron, Lam Research, and KLA make up large chunks through the semiconductor ETF. SoFi appears solely as a direct holding at just over 7%. There is no overlapping exposure to Microsoft via the ETF, but there is substantial clustering around a handful of semiconductor giants. Because only the ETF’s top 10 are visible, some additional names are hidden, yet the pattern is clear: a lot of risk rests on a relatively small group of tech and chip companies. This creates powerful upside potential but also concentrated downside risk.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
On factor exposure, the portfolio shows a very low tilt to value and high tilts to momentum and quality. Factors are like underlying “ingredients” that help explain why investments behave the way they do. A very low value score means holdings are priced more like high-growth names than bargain stocks. High momentum suggests the companies have recently been strong performers, which can boost returns when trends persist but can hurt if leadership reverses. A strong quality tilt often reflects profitable, established businesses with solid balance sheets, which can be a stabilizing trait within an otherwise growthy profile. Low exposure to low volatility and yield fits with the aggressive, return-focused character rather than income or stability.
Risk contribution
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VanEck Semiconductor ETF
Weight: 44.44% 50.6% -
Microsoft Corporation
Weight: 48.32% 38.5% -
SoFi Technologies Inc.
Weight: 7.24% 11.0%
Risk contribution shows how much each holding drives the portfolio’s overall ups and downs, which can differ from simple weights. Here, the semiconductor ETF is 44% of the portfolio but contributes about 51% of total risk, meaning it punches above its weight in volatility. Microsoft, by contrast, is 48% of the weight yet contributes around 38% of risk, so each dollar in Microsoft has been somewhat less volatile than in the ETF. SoFi, though just over 7% of the portfolio, contributes nearly 11% of risk due to its higher individual volatility. Together, these three holdings account for 100% of portfolio risk, underlining how position sizing and individual behavior dominate overall outcomes.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the risk vs. return chart, the portfolio sits on or very close to the efficient frontier, which is the curve showing the best possible return for each risk level using only the current ingredients. The Sharpe ratio, which measures return per unit of risk above a risk-free rate, is solid at 0.78. The optimized mix with the same holdings could reach a Sharpe of 0.96, but that comes with higher volatility and higher expected return, while the minimum variance mix trades off some return for less risk. Since the current allocation is already efficient for its chosen risk level, the main story isn’t about wasted potential—it’s about intentionally accepting higher volatility for higher expected returns within this narrow set of assets.
Dividends
- Microsoft Corporation 0.80%
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.20%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.48%
Dividend yield is modest, with the overall portfolio yielding about 0.48% annually. Microsoft contributes a small 0.80% yield and the semiconductor ETF adds roughly 0.20%. Dividends are cash payments companies make to shareholders, and over long periods they can be a meaningful part of total return, especially in income-focused portfolios. Here, the low yield signals that the emphasis is much more on price growth than ongoing cash income. That lines up with the strong growth, momentum, and tech tilt. In practice, short-term returns will be driven far more by share price movements than by dividend payments, so the experience will feel more like a pure growth portfolio than an income generator.
Ongoing product costs
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.35%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.16%
Costs, measured by the total expense ratio (TER), are relatively low overall at about 0.16% for the portfolio, driven mainly by the 0.35% TER on the VanEck Semiconductor ETF. Direct stock holdings like Microsoft and SoFi do not have a fund TER, though of course trading them can still involve commissions or spreads outside this view. Low ongoing costs are helpful because they leave more of the portfolio’s gross return in your hands each year. Over long periods, even small fee differences can compound into meaningful amounts. In this case, the cost structure is impressively lean, which is a genuine strength and supports better long-term performance relative to higher-fee approaches with similar exposures.
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