Two index funds nailed together and somehow still underperforming the obvious benchmark
Report created on Apr 21, 2026Risk profile
- Secure Speculative
The risk profile, derived from past market volatility, reflects the level of risk the portfolio is exposed to. This assessment helps align your investments with your financial goals and comfort with market fluctuations.
Diversification profile
- Focused Diversified
The diversification assessment evaluates the spread of investments across asset classes, regions, and sectors. This ensures a balanced mix, reducing risk and maximizing returns by not concentrating in any single area.
Positions
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VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 50.00% -
VX Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
VXUS - US9219097683 50.00%
This “portfolio” is basically a coin flip between two giant index funds. It’s like walking into a buffet and then eating exactly two things every time: US total market and ex-US total market, half and half, no imagination required. Structurally it’s brutally simple: 100% stocks, zero bonds, zero alternatives, no tilts, no seasoning. That’s not necessarily bad; it’s just almost aggressively basic. The upside is there’s nothing sneaky hiding in here. The downside is there’s also zero intentional edge. This isn’t a crafted portfolio; it’s pressing the global equity “easy button” and walking away, for better or worse.
Growth
Historically, this thing did its job but didn’t exactly win any trophies. Turning $1,000 into $3,157 over ten years with a 12.23% CAGR is perfectly solid on paper. The problem is when it stands next to the US market, which clocked 14.81% and basically lapped it. You took almost the same max drawdown as the US market (about -34% vs -33.7%) but didn’t get paid US-level returns for the pain. Versus the global market, you’re basically identical, so congrats: you recreated global equity with extra steps. Past data is helpful, but like yesterday’s weather, it doesn’t swear on anything about tomorrow.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection is the financial version of running your portfolio through a thousand alternate universes. Median outcome: $1,000 grows to about $2,742 over 15 years, which is more “slow simmer” than “rocket ship.” There’s a decent 74.4% chance of a positive return, but the possible range is wide: from “barely above break-even” at $956 to “feeling very smug” at $7,780. That spread is what 100% equity risk looks like. And notice how the simulated annual return (8.12%) is lower than the historical 12.23% — the model is basically saying, “Don’t get too attached to the good old days.”
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
Asset classes here are easy: stocks, stocks, and more stocks. It’s 100% equity, zero ballast. No bonds, no real assets, no cash buffer — just one big bet that owning businesses works out over time. That’s fine as a concept, but let’s not pretend this is actually “balanced” just because someone slapped a 4/7 risk label on it. In real-world behavior, this is a pure growth engine with no built‑in parachute. When stocks party, this will be fun. When they collectively jump off a cliff, this rides along all the way down with nothing else in the mix to soften the landing.
Sectors
- Technology 24%
- Financials 17%
- Industrials 13%
- Consumer Discretionary 9%
- Health Care 9%
- Telecommunications 7%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Basic Materials 5%
- Energy 5%
- Utilities 3%
- Real Estate 3%
Sector-wise, this is basically a mirror of the global market with a tech-heavy tint: 24% technology leading the charge, then financials, industrials, and the usual suspects following. So you didn’t just buy the market; you adopted all of its addictions, especially the dependence on tech to keep the numbers pretty. It’s a classic “if growth stocks sneeze, the portfolio catches the flu” setup. There’s no deliberate tilt away from any major sector, which is fine, but it also means you’re at the mercy of whatever the global economy decides to love or hate next, with no intentional steering.
Regions
- North America 54%
- Europe Developed 18%
- Japan 8%
- Asia Developed 7%
- Asia Emerging 7%
- Australasia 2%
- Africa/Middle East 2%
- Latin America 1%
Geographically, this thing is actually more grown‑up than most US-centric portfolios. About 54% sits in North America, with the rest scattered across Europe, Japan, developed Asia, emerging Asia, and even tiny slivers of Australasia, Africa/Middle East, and Latin America. That’s surprisingly sensible for something so simple. But this level of global spread also explains why it lagged the US market: you chose to own the slower kids in the class along with the straight‑A student. When the US dominates, global diversification looks like a drag; when it doesn’t, this kind of mix suddenly looks very clever. Timing decides which story you get.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 43%
- Large-cap 31%
- Mid-cap 18%
- Small-cap 5%
- Micro-cap 1%
Market cap exposure is mostly a worship session at the altar of the giants: 43% mega-cap, 31% large-cap. Mid-caps get a respectable 18%, while small and micro caps are the rounding errors at 5% and 1%. In other words, this is “the big end of town plus a side salad of everything else.” That’s exactly what broad index funds do, but it also means the fate of the portfolio is heavily tied to how the mega‑cap behemoths behave. If they keep compounding, this looks smart; if they stall, the tiny slice in smaller companies isn’t big enough to rewrite the story.
True holdings
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NV NVIDIA Corporation 3.20%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
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AA Apple Inc 2.96%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 2.19%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
23 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. 1.73%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 1.60%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 1.33%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 1.17%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 1.06%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 1.00%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
TS Tesla Inc 0.83%
Part of fund(s):- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- Top 10 total 17.05%
The look‑through holdings read like the usual global mega‑cap all‑star poster: NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Tesla, TSMC, Broadcom. No single name is outrageous, but collectively they quietly drive a big chunk of your risk and return. Even with only top‑10 ETF data, it’s obvious the portfolio is leaning hard on a handful of mega‑stories dressed up as “diversification.” And remember, overlap is understated here, so the real influence of these names is probably even higher. It’s less a democracy of thousands of stocks and more a constitutional monarchy ruled by a tech and semi royal family.
Factors
Factor exposure is hilariously normal. Value, size, momentum, quality, yield — all sit near neutral, like a portfolio terrified of having a personality. The one mildly interesting bit is a tilt toward low volatility at 61%. Low volatility means “slightly less drama than the average stock,” not “risk-free cuddle blanket.” So you’ve basically built a global equity portfolio that behaves a tiny bit more sensibly than the broad market when things get choppy. Not exactly a bold stance, but at least it isn’t accidentally leaning hard into junky or fad-driven stuff. This is index oatmeal: boring, consistent, and hard to screw up.
Risk contribution
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Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 50.00% 51.8% -
Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 50.00% 48.2%
Risk contribution here is refreshingly simple: the US fund drives about 51.8% of risk, the international fund about 48.2%. Their risk/weight ratios are basically 1: the US side pulls slightly more than its share, international slightly less. No surprise divas, no 5% position pretending it’s 25% of the volatility. But the flip side is: all the risk comes from exactly two levers. There’s no complexity, but also no nuance. When one of these big blocks misbehaves, half the portfolio goes with it instantly. The whole thing is a two‑cylinder engine; if either one misfires, performance gets noticeably rough.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the risk/return chart, this portfolio actually behaves itself: it sits right on or very near the efficient frontier. The efficient frontier is just the nerdy curve that shows the best return you can get for each level of risk using your existing ingredients. Sharpe ratio of 0.52 means you’re getting okay compensation for the volatility, but the “optimal” mix of just these two funds could push that up to 0.78 with slightly more return and only a bit more risk. So structurally, you didn’t waste the ingredients — you just didn’t quite squeeze every drop of risk‑adjusted juice out of them.
Dividends
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.10%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 2.70%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.90%
The yield sits around 1.9%, which is fine if the goal is “some pocket change,” not “live off the dividends.” US side drips a modest 1.1%, international does a bit more at 2.7%, so foreigners are doing more of the income heavy lifting. This is clearly a capital growth portfolio first, dividend vehicle second. Nothing wrong with that, just don’t pretend this is an income machine. The payout is more like getting a small annual refund than a steady paycheck — nice to have, but nowhere near the main driver of returns over time.
Ongoing product costs
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.04%
Costs are the one area where this setup is almost annoyingly competent. A total expense ratio of 0.04% is basically “couch cushion money.” That’s cheaper than lots of people’s checking account fees. It’s hard to roast this without nitpicking — you’ve essentially outsourced your entire global equity exposure to two giant funds at bargain-bin pricing. Fees aren’t the reason this portfolio underperforms the US — that’s purely an asset mix story. If anything, the low costs just highlight how ruthlessly simple the whole thing is: no fancy products, no gimmicks, just dirt-cheap beta in two flavors.
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