The portfolio is structured around a mix of ETFs and common stocks, with a significant allocation towards the financial services and real estate sectors. The inclusion of a gold strategy ETF and an international core fund introduces a level of geographic and asset class diversification, though the portfolio leans heavily towards North American assets. The balance between stocks and bonds, with a minor allocation to other asset classes, positions this portfolio as moderately diversified, aligning with the investor's balanced risk profile.
Historically, this portfolio has demonstrated a robust Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 18.04%, with a maximum drawdown of -14.40%. These figures suggest a strong performance relative to the risk taken, although it's crucial to note that past performance does not guarantee future results. The days contributing to 90% of returns indicate significant returns were achieved on relatively few days, highlighting the impact of volatility and timing on overall performance.
Using a Monte Carlo simulation, which forecasts potential outcomes based on historical data, the portfolio shows a wide range of future performance scenarios. The 50th percentile outcome suggests a 389.5% return, indicating a positive outlook, though the wide range between the 5th and 67th percentiles underscores the inherent uncertainty in any projection. Such simulations are useful for understanding potential volatility but should be viewed as one of many tools in decision-making.
The portfolio's asset allocation consists of 92% stocks, 5% bonds, and 3% in other categories, indicating a strong tilt towards equity. This high equity exposure is typical for portfolios aiming for growth but comes with increased volatility. The bond allocation, primarily through the floating rate treasury fund, provides some income stability and interest rate risk mitigation, albeit to a limited extent given its small proportion.
With a third of the portfolio in financial services and over a fifth in real estate, the sector allocation reflects a significant concentration risk. While these sectors can offer high dividend yields and potential for capital appreciation, they also expose the portfolio to sector-specific downturns. The presence of technology and consumer cyclicals adds some growth potential, but the overall sector diversification could be improved to mitigate risks.
The geographic allocation is heavily North American-centric, with 75% of assets based in this region. While this may align with the investor's preference or perception of stability in North American markets, it limits exposure to potential growth in developed European markets and emerging markets. The minimal allocation to Japan and the complete absence of investments in Latin America and Asia Emerging markets suggest an opportunity to enhance global diversification.
The portfolio's market capitalization breakdown shows a diverse mix, with a notable tilt towards medium-sized companies. This mix allows for a balance between the growth potential of smaller companies and the stability of larger firms. However, the absence of small-cap investments and the relatively small allocation to mega-cap companies may limit the portfolio's exposure to high-growth opportunities and blue-chip stability, respectively.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The current portfolio shows a good balance between risk and return, yet there's room for optimization. Moving towards an optimal portfolio with an expected return of 4.61% at a similar risk level suggests that adjustments in asset allocation could yield better risk-adjusted returns. This optimization process, based on the Efficient Frontier concept, indicates that even small changes in allocation can lead to significant improvements in the portfolio's performance.
The portfolio's dividend yield is notably high, with an overall yield of 8.46%. This is driven largely by the substantial dividends from AGNC Investment Corp, Blue Owl Capital Corporation, and Pearl Diver Credit Company Inc. While high dividends can provide a steady income stream, they may also reflect higher risk or a company's lack of opportunities to reinvest earnings for growth. It's essential to balance the pursuit of dividends with the overall growth and stability of the portfolio.
The portfolio's total expense ratio (TER) of 0.11% is impressively low, which is beneficial for long-term performance as lower costs translate directly into higher net returns for investors. This efficiency in cost management is a positive aspect, especially considering the diversification and potential complexity associated with managing a mix of ETFs and individual stocks.
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