Broad low-cost stock portfolio tilted to the US with strong historical growth and moderate diversification
Report created on Jun 21, 2026Risk profile
4/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
-
VO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO - US9229083632 75.00% -
VX Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
VXUS - US9219097683 20.00% -
VX Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VXF - US9229086528 5.00%
This portfolio is a simple three-ETF stock mix, with 75% in a broad US large-cap index, 20% in global ex-US stocks, and 5% in US mid/small caps. That structure makes it easy to understand: it’s basically “mostly US, plus the rest of the world, plus some smaller US names.” Simplicity like this can help performance track markets closely, because there’s little room for big allocation mistakes. It also means the portfolio’s behavior is largely driven by broad equity markets, rather than niche themes. The main implication is that big moves in US stocks in particular will heavily influence the portfolio’s ups and downs over time.
Growth
From mid-2016 to mid-2026, $1,000 invested grew to about $3,797, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.33%. CAGR is like the average speed on a long road trip, smoothing out bumps along the way. This return lagged the US market by 0.93% per year but beat the global market by 1.57% per year, reflecting the portfolio’s US tilt. The worst drawdown was around -34% during early 2020, recovering in about five months. That shows it can fall quickly in a crisis but also rebound fast. Only 35 days created 90% of returns, underlining how missing a few strong days can significantly affect long-term outcomes.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection uses many random simulations based on historical patterns to estimate a range of future outcomes. Think of it as “replaying history thousands of different ways” to see possible paths. Over 15 years, $1,000 has a median projected value around $2,802, with a wide middle range from about $1,809 to $4,334. In the more extreme simulations, outcomes run from roughly flat to strong growth. The average simulated annual return is 8.10%, lower than the historical 14.33%, reminding that past returns can be higher than what’s realistic going forward. These ranges are not promises; they just show how volatile stock-heavy portfolios can be over long periods.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
Asset class exposure is very straightforward: 100% in stocks, with no bonds or cash included. That means the portfolio is fully tied to equity markets, which historically have offered higher long-term returns but also larger short-term swings. There is no built-in buffer from fixed income to soften drawdowns. For many global benchmarks, a “balanced” mix includes some bonds, so this is more growth-oriented in that sense. The upside of this all-equity structure is full participation in equity market rallies. The trade-off is that downturns will translate more directly into portfolio losses, as seen in the 2020 drawdown.
Sectors
- Technology 31%
- Financials 14%
- Industrials 10%
- Consumer Discretionary 10%
- Telecommunications 9%
- Health Care 8%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Energy 4%
- Basic Materials 3%
- Utilities 3%
- Real Estate 2%
Sector exposure is quite spread out, with technology the largest at 31%, followed by financials, industrials, consumer discretionary, and telecommunications. This kind of spread is broadly in line with many global equity benchmarks, where tech tends to be the largest slice. A tech-heavy top weight can boost returns during innovation cycles and periods of low or falling interest rates, as growth names are rewarded. However, tech can also be more sensitive when sentiment shifts or rates rise, leading to sharper swings. The presence of meaningful weights in health care, staples, energy, and utilities helps provide some balance, since these areas often behave differently over the cycle.
Regions
- North America 81%
- Europe Developed 7%
- Asia Developed 3%
- Japan 3%
- Asia Emerging 3%
- Australasia 1%
- Africa/Middle East 1%
Geographically, about 81% of the portfolio sits in North America, with the rest spread across developed Europe, developed Asia (including Japan), emerging Asia, and smaller allocations to Australasia and Africa/Middle East. This leans more heavily toward North America than many global benchmarks, where the US is large but not typically above 80%. A strong US tilt has been beneficial over the past decade, given US market outperformance, which helps explain the outperformance versus the global benchmark. The trade-off is higher dependence on one economy and currency. The existing spread outside North America still adds useful diversification, but global shocks can still hit many regions at once.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 44%
- Large-cap 32%
- Mid-cap 18%
- Small-cap 4%
- Micro-cap 1%
By market capitalization, the portfolio is dominated by mega-cap and large-cap companies (about 76% combined), with mid-caps at 18% and small/micro caps together at around 5%. Larger companies often provide more stability, deeper liquidity, and more analyst coverage, which can mean smoother price moves compared with tiny names. The mid- and small-cap slice, helped by the extended market ETF, introduces more diversification and potential for different growth patterns than the giants. That said, smaller caps tend to be more volatile and sensitive to economic conditions. Overall, the size mix looks close to broad market norms, keeping risk balanced between stability and growth potential.
True holdings
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NV NVIDIA Corporation 5.92%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AA Apple Inc 5.29%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 3.86%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 3.05%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 2.56%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 2.45%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 2.03%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 1.60%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
TS Tesla Inc 1.42%
Part of fund(s):- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 1.26%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Top 10 total 29.42%
Looking through the ETFs, the largest underlying exposures are familiar mega-cap growth names like NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Broadcom, Meta, Tesla, and Micron. These positions together make up a noticeable chunk of the portfolio, even though they’re held only via funds. Because the same big names appear in multiple ETFs, there’s “hidden” concentration: if one of these companies has a major move, it can impact the whole portfolio more than the fund list alone suggests. Coverage is only based on top-10 ETF holdings, so overall overlap is likely higher than the reported 32.4%, but these names clearly anchor the portfolio’s growth and risk.
Factors
Factor exposure is broadly neutral across the board for value, size, momentum, quality, yield, and low volatility, all clustering near the 50% “market average” mark. Factors are like investing “ingredients” that explain why some stocks behave differently—cheap versus expensive (value), stable versus volatile, and so on. Neutral exposures mean the portfolio behaves much like the overall global equity market, rather than leaning heavily into any one style. This can be helpful for investors who don’t want big tilts that shine in some environments but suffer in others. In practice, returns are likely to be driven more by broad market direction than by factor cycles.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
Weight: 75.00% 76.5% -
Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 20.00% 17.7% -
Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 5.00% 5.9%
Risk contribution shows how much each holding adds to total volatility. Here, the S&P 500 ETF is 75% of the portfolio but contributes about 76.5% of the risk, roughly in line with its weight. The international fund is 20% of the weight and about 17.7% of risk, slightly dampening volatility relative to size. The extended market ETF, at only 5% weight, contributes nearly 5.9% of risk, so it punches a bit above its weight, which is common for smaller-cap exposure. Overall, risk is highly concentrated in the core S&P 500 position, which is expected given its dominant allocation and the portfolio’s US tilt.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The risk vs. return chart shows the current portfolio has a Sharpe ratio of 0.62, while the optimal mix of the same holdings reaches 0.83, and the minimum-variance mix hits 0.68. The Sharpe ratio compares excess return to volatility, so higher means more return per unit of risk. The current allocation sits on or very near the efficient frontier, meaning that, for its risk level, it’s already using its three ETFs effectively. The optimal portfolio would deliver somewhat higher return for a bit more risk, and the minimum-variance version slightly lower risk with lower return, but the gains over the current mix are relatively modest.
Dividends
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.00%
- Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.00%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 2.10%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.22%
The portfolio’s combined dividend yield is about 1.22%, with US holdings around 1% and international stocks a bit higher at 2.10%. Dividend yield is the cash income paid out each year relative to the investment value. Here, most of the historical and projected return comes from price growth rather than income. That’s normal for a growth-leaning global equity allocation, especially one tilted toward large US companies, which often prefer buybacks and reinvestment over high payouts. Dividends still contribute a steady, if modest, stream to total returns, and they can help soften the impact of flat or slightly negative price periods over time.
Ongoing product costs
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
- Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.06%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.04%
Costs in this portfolio are impressively low. The total TER (total expense ratio) is roughly 0.04%, with individual ETFs between 0.03% and 0.06%. TER is the annual fee charged by funds to cover management and operating costs, taken out of performance automatically. Keeping fees this low supports better long-term compounding, as less return is sacrificed to costs each year. Compared with many actively managed funds, this cost level is extremely competitive. In practice, the fee drag is tiny relative to normal market moves, so results are driven far more by asset allocation and market performance than by expenses, which is a solid structural advantage.
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