This portfolio comprises 80% in a US total market index fund and 20% in an international index fund, indicating a strong preference for domestic equities over international exposure. The allocation to just two funds simplifies management but concentrates risk in the performance of these markets. The broad diversification across sectors and geographies within these funds mitigates individual stock volatility, aligning with a growth profile that can tolerate moderate to high risk.
Historically, this portfolio has achieved a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 13.53%, with a maximum drawdown of -34.60%. These figures suggest a relatively high return potential but also significant volatility, as evidenced by the steep drawdown. The days contributing to 90% of returns being limited to 17 indicates that a small number of exceptionally positive days have driven performance, highlighting the importance of staying invested through market cycles for growth investors.
Using a Monte Carlo simulation, which projects future performance by analyzing historical data, the portfolio shows a wide range of outcomes. The median projection suggests a 322.4% return, with a 5th percentile at a low 30.1% return, indicating potential for substantial growth but also significant risk. This method, while useful for understanding possible outcomes, cannot guarantee future returns due to market unpredictability.
The portfolio's allocation is entirely in stocks, with no presence in bonds, cash, or alternative investments. This maximizes potential growth but also increases volatility and risk, especially in market downturns. Diversifying across different asset classes could reduce risk without drastically compromising growth potential.
The technology sector's dominant 26% weighting reflects a growth-oriented strategy but introduces sector-specific risk, particularly from market corrections or shifts in consumer preferences. Financial services and healthcare also have significant weightings, providing some balance. However, diversifying more evenly across sectors could mitigate risks associated with overexposure to any single sector.
With 81% allocated to North America, primarily the US, the portfolio is heavily weighted towards developed markets, offering stability and growth potential. However, this geographic concentration also exposes the portfolio to region-specific risks, such as policy changes and economic downturns in the US. Increasing exposure to developed markets outside North America and emerging markets could enhance diversification and growth opportunities.
The focus on mega and big-cap stocks (74% combined) aligns with the portfolio's growth and stability objectives, leveraging the potential of large, established companies. However, including more medium, small, and micro-cap stocks could offer higher growth potential, albeit with increased volatility.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The current portfolio's risk-return profile suggests room for optimization towards the Efficient Frontier, where the highest returns are achieved for a given level of risk. Adjusting the asset allocation to include a broader mix of asset classes and sectors could improve the portfolio's efficiency, balancing growth potential with risk management.
The dividend yield of 1.38% contributes modestly to the portfolio's total return. While growth is the primary goal, dividends offer a source of passive income and a buffer during market volatility. Considering funds or assets with higher dividend yields could provide additional income without sacrificing growth potential.
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