The portfolio is heavily weighted towards the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, making up over three-quarters of the total, with a significant stake in Alphabet Inc. Class A shares and a minimal allocation to the First Trust India NIFTY 50 Equal Weight ETF. This composition indicates a strong focus on U.S. equities, particularly within the tech sector, and suggests a growth-oriented strategy. However, the diversification is low, with a high concentration in just a few assets and sectors, which could increase volatility and risk.
Historically, the portfolio has demonstrated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 16.05%, with a maximum drawdown of -33.23%. These figures suggest robust growth potential but also highlight periods of significant value decline. The fact that 90% of returns came from just 33 days emphasizes the unpredictability and the importance of staying invested through market fluctuations to capture the gains on those critical days.
Using Monte Carlo simulations, the portfolio's future performance shows a wide range of outcomes, with the median projection suggesting a 515.2% increase. However, the simulation also indicates potential for substantial variability, with a 5th percentile outcome at just 47.2%. These projections, while optimistic, underscore the importance of understanding the inherent uncertainties in market performance and the need for regular portfolio reviews.
The portfolio is entirely invested in stocks, with no allocation to bonds, real estate, or other asset classes. This singular focus on equities enhances growth potential but also increases susceptibility to market volatility. Diversifying across different asset classes can provide a buffer against stock market fluctuations and reduce overall portfolio risk.
The sector allocation shows a heavy emphasis on Communication Services and Technology, accounting for over half of the portfolio. While these sectors can offer substantial growth, they are also prone to higher volatility and can be significantly impacted by regulatory changes and market cycles. Broadening the sector exposure could mitigate some of these risks and stabilize portfolio returns.
Geographically, the portfolio is almost entirely focused on North America, with a negligible exposure to international markets. This concentration in the U.S. market limits global diversification benefits and exposes the portfolio to country-specific economic and political risks. Increasing exposure to developed and emerging markets outside the U.S. could enhance diversification and potentially improve risk-adjusted returns.
The market capitalization breakdown reveals a strong tilt towards Mega and Big cap stocks, which tend to be more stable and less volatile than smaller companies. However, this focus may limit opportunities for higher growth rates often found in Medium and Small cap stocks. Considering a more balanced allocation across different market caps could introduce new growth avenues and diversification benefits.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
Considering the portfolio's current composition and risk-return profile, there's room for optimization towards the Efficient Frontier, which could potentially improve the risk-return ratio. This process would involve adjusting the asset allocation to achieve the best possible balance between risk and return, based on historical performance data. However, it's crucial to remember that past performance is not indicative of future results, and optimization should be aligned with the investor's risk tolerance and investment horizon.
The dividend yields from the portfolio's holdings contribute modestly to the overall returns, with a total yield of 1.03%. While dividends are not the primary focus of this growth-oriented strategy, they can provide a steady income stream and help mitigate losses during market dips. Evaluating opportunities to include assets with higher dividend yields could offer additional income without significantly compromising growth potential.
The portfolio's total expense ratio (TER) is exceptionally low, primarily due to the significant allocation to the low-cost Vanguard S&P 500 ETF. This cost-efficiency is commendable as lower costs can significantly enhance long-term returns. Maintaining focus on minimizing investment costs will continue to be beneficial, especially in a low-diversity, growth-focused portfolio.
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