This portfolio is characterized by a strong emphasis on ETFs, allocating significant portions to both domestic and international stock index funds. The largest allocations are in broad market ETFs, including the Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares and the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, which together make up 45% of the portfolio. This structure suggests a balanced approach, aiming to capture global market returns while maintaining a diversified exposure across various sectors and geographies.
The portfolio has demonstrated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 14.11%, with a maximum drawdown of -24.04%. These figures indicate a relatively strong performance, with resilience during market downturns. The days contributing to 90% of returns being concentrated in 21.0 days highlights the impact of significant market movements on portfolio performance. Comparing these metrics to benchmarks could provide further insight into relative performance, especially during different market conditions.
Monte Carlo simulations, using historical data to project future outcomes, suggest a wide range of potential future values for this portfolio. With 997 out of 1,000 simulations showing positive returns and a median projected increase of 550%, the forward-looking outlook appears optimistic. However, it's important to note that these projections are based on past performance, which is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The portfolio's asset allocation is predominantly in stocks (99%), with a minimal cash holding (1%). This high equity exposure is consistent with the portfolio's balanced risk profile but leans towards a higher risk and return spectrum. Diversification across different asset classes could be improved by including bonds or alternative investments, which may offer risk mitigation benefits during market volatility.
Sector allocation reveals a significant weighting in technology (25%), followed by financial services (15%) and utilities (12%). This tech-heavy orientation may increase volatility, given the sector's sensitivity to market fluctuations and interest rate changes. Balancing sector exposures can reduce risk and smooth out returns over time, especially in different economic cycles.
Geographic allocation shows a heavy North American focus (77%), with smaller exposures to developed Europe (10%) and emerging Asian markets (4%). This distribution reflects a home bias, common among U.S.-based investors, but may limit exposure to potential growth in emerging markets and diversification benefits from different economic cycles worldwide.
The portfolio's market capitalization breakdown—mega (40%), big (30%), medium (20%), small (6%), and micro (3%)—suggests a moderate to conservative risk posture, favoring larger, more established companies. Including more small and micro-cap stocks could enhance growth potential, albeit with increased volatility.
High correlation between the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF and Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares indicates overlapping exposures, which might not add diversification benefits. Reducing redundancy in holdings can enhance portfolio efficiency by ensuring each investment contributes uniquely to the portfolio's risk and return profile.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
Optimizing the portfolio along the Efficient Frontier could further improve its risk-return profile. Prioritizing this optimization involves addressing the noted asset correlation by diversifying highly correlated holdings. This step can refine the portfolio's efficiency, ensuring that each component contributes to achieving the best possible balance between risk and return.
The portfolio's average dividend yield of 1.62% contributes to its total returns, with the highest yields from the Vanguard Utilities Index Fund ETF Shares and Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares (both 2.70%). Dividends can provide a steady income stream and potential tax advantages, making them an important consideration for long-term investors.
The Total Expense Ratio (TER) of 0.08% is impressively low, enhancing long-term returns by minimizing cost drag. While the Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF has the highest individual cost (0.25%), the overall cost structure is competitive, underscoring the portfolio's efficient design.
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