Highly concentrated tech and semiconductor portfolio showing strong historical growth with meaningful drawdowns and low income
Report created on May 10, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
2/5
Positions
-
QQ Invesco QQQ Trust
QQQ - US46090E1038 60.00% -
SM VanEck Semiconductor ETF
SMH - US92189F6768 30.00% -
XL Technology Select Sector SPDR® Fund
XLK - US81369Y8030 10.00%
This portfolio is compact and highly focused, holding just three US-listed equity ETFs. Around two thirds sits in a broad growth-heavy tech index fund, about a third in a dedicated semiconductor ETF, and a small slice in a pure technology sector fund. Everything is in stocks, with no cash, bonds, or alternative assets. A tight lineup like this makes the portfolio easy to understand and track, and performance is largely driven by one clear theme: technology, especially chips. The trade-off is that there is little diversification by sector, region, or asset class, so portfolio ups and downs are tightly linked to how growth-oriented tech and semiconductor companies behave over time.
Growth
Historically, this mix has grown very fast: $1,000 in 2016 turned into about $12,535, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.87%. CAGR is like your average yearly “speed” over the entire period, smoothing out the bumps. That far exceeds both the US market (15.40%) and global market (12.78%), showing how strongly tech and semis have run. The flip side is a max drawdown of about -39%, meaning the portfolio once fell that far from peak to trough before recovering. That’s a deeper and longer dip than broad markets, and it highlights how this kind of growth profile can involve sharper temporary losses alongside strong long‑term gains.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection uses the portfolio’s past behavior to simulate many possible future paths for a $1,000 investment over 15 years. It’s like running 1,000 alternate timelines where returns are randomly drawn based on historical patterns, then seeing the range of outcomes. The median result lands around $2,783, with a wide “middle band” between roughly $1,861 and $4,394. There are also more extreme cases, from near breakeven to very large growth. This shows that while the average simulated annual return of 8.24% is attractive, future results vary a lot, and past returns—especially strong ones—don’t guarantee similar performance going forward.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of the portfolio is in stocks, so asset-class diversification is effectively zero. That means it fully participates in equity market moves, with no exposure to bonds or cash-like holdings that often behave differently in stressful periods. A 100% equity stance can drive higher long-run growth when markets are strong, but it also tends to experience bigger swings during downturns compared with blends that include more defensive assets. This all-stock approach lines up with the “growth” classification and helps explain the higher risk score and low diversification score: the portfolio is built to capture equity-driven upside rather than to smooth out volatility across different asset types.
Sectors
- Technology 73%
- Telecommunications 9%
- Consumer Discretionary 7%
- Consumer Staples 4%
- Health Care 2%
- Industrials 2%
- Utilities 1%
- Basic Materials 1%
Sector exposure is heavily skewed: technology makes up about 73% of the portfolio, with smaller pieces in telecommunications, consumer areas, health care, industrials, utilities, and materials. Compared with broad benchmarks that spread more evenly across sectors, this is a very tech-centric profile. Tech-heavy portfolios often benefit when innovation and digital spending are in favor, but they can be more sensitive to interest rate changes, regulatory news, or shifts in sentiment about growth companies. The smaller allocations to non-tech sectors provide only modest cushioning, so overall portfolio behavior is likely to be dominated by the tech cycle rather than by a wide mix of economic drivers.
Regions
- North America 94%
- Asia Developed 3%
- Europe Developed 2%
Geographically, the portfolio is overwhelmingly anchored in North America at around 94%, with only small exposures to developed Asia and Europe. Compared to global indices that allocate more than half outside the US, this is a strong home-region tilt. This concentration means results are closely tied to the performance of North American companies, currencies, and policy environments. When that region outperforms, the portfolio can benefit significantly; when it lags, there is limited offset from other parts of the world. The upside is simplicity in following familiar markets; the downside is that global diversification benefits are only lightly represented here.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 53%
- Large-cap 37%
- Mid-cap 9%
Most of the underlying equity exposure is in mega-cap and large-cap companies, with over 90% in those size buckets and a small slice in mid-caps. Large and mega-cap firms tend to be more established, widely followed, and often more resilient than smaller, less liquid names, but they can still be volatile—especially in fast-moving sectors like technology and semiconductors. This size mix is broadly similar to many major indices, so in terms of company size, the portfolio is reasonably aligned with market norms. The key difference is sector and theme concentration, not an unusual tilt toward very small or very speculative companies.
True holdings
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NV NVIDIA Corporation 11.37%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco QQQ Trust
- Technology Select Sector SPDR® Fund
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
AA Apple Inc 5.48%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco QQQ Trust
- Technology Select Sector SPDR® Fund
-
AV Broadcom Inc 5.03%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco QQQ Trust
- Technology Select Sector SPDR® Fund
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 4.14%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco QQQ Trust
- Technology Select Sector SPDR® Fund
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 4.11%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco QQQ Trust
- Technology Select Sector SPDR® Fund
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 3.06%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco QQQ Trust
-
TS Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing 3.04%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
IN Intel Corporation 2.67%
Part of fund(s):- Technology Select Sector SPDR® Fund
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 2.34%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco QQQ Trust
-
AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc 2.21%
Part of fund(s):- Technology Select Sector SPDR® Fund
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- Top 10 total 43.44%
Looking through the ETFs, a handful of big names drive a large share of exposure. NVIDIA, Apple, Broadcom, Microsoft, Micron, Amazon, TSMC, Intel, Alphabet, and AMD all feature prominently, with NVIDIA alone around 11% and several others between 2–5%. Because these companies appear across multiple funds, there is overlap—one stock move can ripple through several holdings at once. Overlap figures only use ETF top-10 lists, so true concentration is likely a bit higher. This kind of hidden clustering is common in themed portfolios and helps explain why performance can be very sensitive to a relatively small group of large, high-profile technology and semiconductor names.
Factors
Factor exposure shows a very low score on value and low levels for yield and low volatility, with other factors roughly neutral. Factors are characteristics—like value, momentum, or quality—that research links to long-term return patterns. A very low value score means the portfolio leans away from cheaper, more “bargain-priced” stocks and toward growth-oriented names where investors pay up for expected future earnings. The low yield and low-volatility exposures reinforce this growth tilt: income and stability are not the dominant drivers here. In environments where growth leadership cools and cheaper or steadier stocks are favored, this profile may behave differently from more value- or income-tilted portfolios.
Risk contribution
-
Invesco QQQ Trust
Weight: 60.00% 52.9% -
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
Weight: 30.00% 37.5% -
Technology Select Sector SPDR® Fund
Weight: 10.00% 9.6%
Risk contribution measures how much each holding adds to the portfolio’s overall ups and downs, which can differ from its weight. The broad tech ETF, at 60% weight, contributes about 53% of total risk—slightly less volatile than its size might suggest. The semiconductor ETF, with 30% weight, contributes nearly 38% of risk, so it punches above its size in driving fluctuations. The sector tech fund’s risk share is close to its 10% weight. Together, these three account for essentially all portfolio risk, meaning there’s no hidden stabilizer elsewhere. This pattern shows how a concentrated, high-beta theme ETF can amplify volatility beyond its simple percentage allocation.
Redundant positions
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High correlationTechnology Select Sector SPDR® FundInvesco QQQ Trust
Correlation looks at how holdings move relative to each other; a correlation near 1 means they tend to rise and fall together. Here, the broad tech ETF and the technology sector ETF are highly correlated, almost tracking each other’s moves. That’s unsurprising given their overlapping focus on many of the same large tech companies. High correlation between major positions limits diversification benefits: in a tech downturn, both funds are likely to decline at the same time. The dedicated semiconductor ETF adds a somewhat different twist within tech, but overall, the portfolio’s building blocks behave in quite a synchronized way when markets get stressed.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The efficient frontier analysis compares the current mix with theoretical portfolios using the same three ETFs but different weights. The current portfolio sits on or very close to this frontier, meaning that for its given risk level, the allocation is already making effective use of the available building blocks. Its Sharpe ratio—a measure of return per unit of risk—trails the optimal mix but is close to the minimum-variance option, indicating a reasonably strong risk/return trade-off. Importantly, this analysis only reweights what’s already in the portfolio; it doesn’t add new assets. Within that constraint, the structure is mathematically efficient.
Dividends
- Invesco QQQ Trust 0.40%
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.20%
- Technology Select Sector SPDR® Fund 0.40%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.34%
Dividend income is modest here, with an overall yield around 0.34%. Yield is the cash payout from investments as a percentage of their price, like interest from a savings account but for stocks. This low yield is consistent with a growth-oriented tech and semiconductor focus, where companies often reinvest profits into expansion instead of paying large dividends. Historically, total returns have been driven much more by price appreciation than by income. For someone tracking this portfolio, that means fluctuations in market value will dominate the experience, while regular cash flows from dividends will play only a small supporting role in overall outcomes.
Ongoing product costs
- Invesco QQQ Trust 0.20%
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.35%
- Technology Select Sector SPDR® Fund 0.09%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.23%
The weighted total expense ratio (TER) is about 0.23%, combining 0.20% from the broad tech ETF, 0.35% from the semiconductor fund, and 0.09% from the sector tech ETF. TER is the ongoing annual fee charged by funds, quietly deducted from returns. In the context of specialized, thematic, and sector ETFs, this blended cost is quite competitive. Lower fees mean more of any gross return is kept rather than paid out, which compounds over time. The costs here are impressively low relative to the complexity and concentration of the exposure, giving the portfolio a cost-efficient foundation for a focused growth strategy.
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