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A momentum drunk tech heavy portfolio cosplaying as a sensible balanced strategy

Risk profile

  • Secure
    Speculative

The risk profile, derived from past market volatility, reflects the level of risk the portfolio is exposed to. This assessment helps align your investments with your financial goals and comfort with market fluctuations.

Diversification profile

  • Focused
    Diversified

The diversification assessment evaluates the spread of investments across asset classes, regions, and sectors. This ensures a balanced mix, reducing risk and maximizing returns by not concentrating in any single area.

What type of investor this portfolio is suitable for

Balanced Investors

This setup fits someone who says “balanced” but secretly loves speed. Comfortable with volatility, clearly growth-oriented, and willing to lean hard into US mega-cap tech and style factors, this person bets that winners keep winning. The mindset is long-term and optimistic, with a tolerance for watching account values swing in exchange for big upside potential. There’s not much interest in steady income or capital preservation; it’s more about compounding aggressively and trusting history’s best-performing segment to keep carrying the load. Ideal for someone with years or decades ahead and the stomach to ride through ugly drawdowns without mashing the panic button.

Positions

  • SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
    SPY - US78462F1030
    25.00%
  • Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
    SPMO - US46138E3392
    22.00%
  • Technology Select Sector SPDR® Fund
    XLK - US81369Y8030
    15.00%
  • American Century ETF Trust
    AVGV - US0250722164
    10.00%
  • American Century ETF Trust
    AVNM - US0250721745
    10.00%
  • Invesco S&P 500® Quality ETF
    SPHQ - US46137V2410
    10.00%
  • iShares MSCI USA Quality GARP ETF
    GARP - US46436E4035
    8.00%

This lineup is basically five flavors of S&P 500 with extra sugar poured on growth and tech. You’ve got a core S&P 500, then momentum, then quality, then tech, then more quality and GARP… it’s an index salad that all tastes the same. For something labeled “balanced” and “moderately diversified,” this is equity-only, US-heavy, and style-clustered. It’s like calling six Coke variants a “beverage bar.” The big issue: tons of overlap, not much true diversification. A cleaner setup would trim duplicate smart-beta toys, keep one or two core broad funds, and then add genuinely different stuff for balance rather than yet another S&P remix.

Growth Info

A CAGR of 24.32% with only a -19.35% max drawdown is the kind of backtest that makes people overconfident. CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) is just the average yearly growth, like your speedometer over a road trip; this one is screaming fast. But that’s almost certainly riding the recent US mega-cap tech rocket. Versus a plain S&P 500, this chunk probably outpaced it, but don’t confuse “worked great in the biggest tech run ever” with “genius forever.” Past data is yesterday’s weather: useful, not prophetic. A sanity check would be to stress test uglier periods and assume more normal returns, not a permanent 20%+ party.

Projection Info

Monte Carlo says median future value is about 2,488% and even the 5th percentile is 688.5%. Translation: the simulation thinks this thing walks on water. Monte Carlo is just a nerdy way to roll the dice 1,000 times on different return paths to see possible futures. But when you start with wild historical returns, the model basically assumes the magic continues. That 26.83% annualized projection is fantasy-land territory for a long-term equity portfolio. A more grounded approach would dial expectations way down, run scenarios with lower returns and nastier drawdowns, and plan life around those, not the “multi-bagger or bust” fairy tale.

Asset classes Info

  • Stocks
    100%
  • Cash
    0%
  • Other
    0%
  • No data
    0%

Asset classes: 100% stocks, 0% everything else. So “balanced” here really means “emotionally optimistic.” No bonds, no cash buffer, no real assets. When stocks sneeze, this thing gets pneumonia. One asset class is fine for a high-octane, long-horizon setup, but pretending this is moderate risk is cute. Asset classes are just different economic beasts; when one flops, others sometimes behave. Here, everything depends on equity markets behaving nicely. A more grown-up version of this would carve out a slice for stabilizers like investment-grade bonds or other low-correlation stuff so the portfolio doesn’t face-plant every time equities go into therapy.

Sectors Info

  • Technology
    40%
  • Financials
    15%
  • Industrials
    11%
  • Telecommunications
    8%
  • Consumer Discretionary
    8%
  • Health Care
    6%
  • Consumer Staples
    5%
  • Energy
    3%
  • Basic Materials
    3%
  • Utilities
    2%
  • Real Estate
    1%

Tech at 40% is a straight-up tech addiction. Financials and industrials are there for decoration, but this is very much a “please don’t crash, Silicon Valley” portfolio. Sector allocation should be more like a balanced meal; this is protein powder with a side of espresso. If tech has a 2000-style hangover, this thing gets wrecked, especially with momentum and quality tilts amplifying whatever’s hot. Dialing tech closer to market weight and beefing up underrepresented but boring sectors would make the ride less tied to one narrative. Right now, this is less “diversified investor” and more “I pray to the NASDAQ gods nightly.”

Regions Info

  • North America
    87%
  • Europe Developed
    5%
  • Japan
    2%
  • Asia Emerging
    2%
  • Asia Developed
    2%
  • Australasia
    1%
  • Africa/Middle East
    1%
  • Latin America
    0%
  • Europe Emerging
    0%

North America at 87% screams “America or nothing.” The tiny slivers to Europe, Japan, and emerging Asia look more like accidental garnish than intentional allocation. Global diversification exists for a reason: different regions peak and crash at different times. Here, if the US stumbles, everything stumbles. This isn’t “world investing,” it’s “USA plus some rounding errors.” Adding more meaningful non-US exposure could help smooth long-term returns and reduce the “one-country bet” risk. It doesn’t need to be complicated: just a more serious chunk outside North America instead of these polite 1–5% cameos that won’t move the needle in any real scenario.

Market capitalization Info

  • Large-cap
    39%
  • Mega-cap
    36%
  • Mid-cap
    20%
  • Small-cap
    3%
  • Micro-cap
    1%

Mega and big caps at 75% means this thing is basically a fan club for the S&P 500 elite. Medium caps show up at 20%, while small and micro caps are barely on the guest list at 4%. That’s not bad per se, but let’s not pretend there’s some brave exposure to the full market here. It’s mostly the usual mega names everyone tweets about. Cap allocation matters because different size companies behave differently in booms and busts. If growth is the game, a bit more intentional mid/small cap exposure could add spice. If stability is the goal, maybe own the tilt instead of calling it “balanced.”

Redundant positions Info

  • iShares MSCI USA Quality GARP ETF
    Technology Select Sector SPDR® Fund
    High correlation

Highly correlated assets like the tech-heavy GARP ETF and the tech sector fund are basically two different wrappers for the same mood swing. Correlation is just “do these things move together?” and here the answer is a loud yes. When the party’s on, fine, but when tech or US quality sells off, multiple slices of this portfolio dive in sync. That’s fake diversification: it looks like many holdings but acts like one big bet. Clearing out overlapped, highly correlated pieces and consolidating into fewer, broader funds would reduce clutter and give room to add stuff that actually behaves differently in a crash.

Dividends Info

  • American Century ETF Trust 2.50%
  • Invesco S&P 500® Quality ETF 1.00%
  • Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.70%
  • SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust 1.00%
  • iShares MSCI USA Quality GARP ETF 0.30%
  • Technology Select Sector SPDR® Fund 0.50%
  • Weighted yield (per year) 1.03%

A total yield around 1.03% is pocket change. This setup clearly doesn’t care about income; it’s chasing price growth. Nothing wrong with that, but income investors would cry. The dividend pieces are more like small bonuses than a paycheck. Dividends are just cash companies hand back to you; they can help smooth returns and make downturns less painful. Here, the income stream won’t do much when markets tank. If cash flow matters, this needs a serious tilt toward higher-yielding assets. If growth is the true goal, at least admit this is a low-yield, capital-gains-dependent machine and plan taxes and withdrawals accordingly.

Ongoing product costs Info

  • American Century ETF Trust 0.31%
  • Invesco S&P 500® Quality ETF 0.15%
  • Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
  • SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust 0.10%
  • Technology Select Sector SPDR® Fund 0.09%
  • Weighted costs total (per year) 0.14%

Total TER of 0.14% is actually impressively low — you clearly didn’t click every shiny, overpriced product. It’s like you built a sports car and at least didn’t get ripped off on the fuel. Still, adding multiple overlapping smart-beta and style ETFs slightly complicates things for not much extra value. Costs are the one place this setup isn’t chaotic, so credit where due: nicely done, probably by accident. A cleaner, simpler structure with similar cost but fewer redundant ETFs would make monitoring easier and reduce the “what exactly is this doing?” confusion every time markets hiccup.

Risk vs. return

This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.

The optimization note basically says, “You could do better with the same risk if you stopped stacking clones.” Expected return could be higher at the same risk level, and even the “optimal” portfolio only bumps risk modestly to 15.29%. Efficient Frontier is just the nerd line of best possible return for each risk level; this portfolio sits below it, wasting risk on redundancy. You’re paying in volatility for less-than-max potential. Cleaning out overlapping, highly correlated holdings and building around a core of broad exposure plus a few clear tilts would push this closer to that efficient line instead of loitering underneath it.

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