A shockingly sensible three fund portfolio wearing a small cap value cape for extra drama
Report created on Mar 17, 2026Risk profile
4/7
Diversification profile
4/5
Positions
-
VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 50.00% -
VX Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
VXUS - US9219097683 25.00% -
VB Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fund ETF Shares
VBR - US9229086114 15.00% -
VW Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares
VWO - US9220428588 10.00%
This thing is basically the Boglehead starter pack with a personality. It’s a classic “total US plus total international” core (75% of the portfolio), then you slapped on 15% small-cap value and 10% emerging markets like you wanted to prove you’ve read at least two investing blogs. Structurally, it’s simple and actually cleaner than many so-called “professional” portfolios. The catch: you’re still massively dominated by one asset class – global stocks – so that “Balanced” label is doing stand‑up comedy. If genuine balance is the goal, think in terms of adding stabilizers like high‑quality bonds rather than just sprinkling more flavors of equity risk.
Growth
With a historical CAGR of 12.74%, this portfolio has enjoyed a decade-plus of markets on performance‑enhancing optimism. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is basically your average speed over the trip, potholes included. A 12.74% CAGR means $10,000 would’ve grown to around $33,000 over 10 years – but don’t get too smug. The max drawdown of –35.65% says it also punched you in the face during bad times. Compared with a vanilla global equity benchmark, this is in the same ballpark: strong but not magical. Past data is yesterday’s weather: useful, but it doesn’t promise tomorrow won’t dump rain on you.
Projection
The Monte Carlo output is basically saying, “most futures are fine, but don’t get cocky.” Monte Carlo is just a fancy way of rolling the dice 1,000 times using historical-style randomness to see a range of outcomes. Median result of +309.9% sounds great, but that 5th percentile at only +27% over the full horizon is the rude reminder. Translation: there’s a real, non‑trivial path where you sit around for years and end up barely ahead. The simulated 11.97% annualized return is optimistic for a 100%‑ish equity setup. Treat it as “one scenario,” not destiny; markets don’t read your simulation output.
Asset classes
- Stocks 98%
- Cash 1%
Asset class “diversification” here is basically: stocks 98%, cash 1%, and a polite nod to everything else. That’s not balanced; that’s an equity maximalist with a rounding error. Calling this “Profile_Balanced” is like calling a Ferrari “family transport” because it technically has two seats. In good times, this works wonderfully. In a brutal equity bear market, everything in your life is hitched to one risk engine. If the goal is less gut‑wrenching drawdowns, this needs actual diversifiers – things that historically zig when stocks zag – not more flavors of stocks wearing different tickers. Right now, it’s one big bet in multiple costumes.
Sectors
- Technology 24%
- Financials 17%
- Industrials 12%
- Consumer Discretionary 11%
- Health Care 9%
- Telecommunications 8%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Basic Materials 5%
- Energy 4%
- Real Estate 4%
- Utilities 3%
Sector-wise, you’re basically shadowing the global market with a mild tech crush. Technology at 24% is high but not outrageous vs common equity indexes; still, it means you care very deeply about chips, software, and CEO keynotes. Financials at 17% and industrials at 12% keep things from turning into a pure Silicon Valley shrine, which is good. But don’t pretend this is sector-agnostic: when tech and growth stories wobble, you will feel it. Treat sector exposure like your social circle: it’s fine to have tech‑obsessed friends, but you don’t want your entire life advice coming from one echo chamber.
Regions
- North America 67%
- Europe Developed 10%
- Asia Emerging 9%
- Asia Developed 6%
- Japan 4%
- Africa/Middle East 2%
- Latin America 1%
- Australasia 1%
Geographically, this screams “US is home base and everything else is supporting cast.” About 67% in North America is very “America or bust,” with the rest scattered thinly across Europe, Japan, and emerging markets. It’s a sensible tilt given you’re US‑based, but let’s not pretend this is some heroic global neutrality. The modest emerging markets and developed ex‑US positions help, yet in a US bear market, this portfolio is still largely going down with the mothership. For someone aiming at truly global balance, pushing non‑US up closer to global market weights or even above could smooth out the “USA mood swings rule my net worth” problem.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 36%
- Large-cap 26%
- Mid-cap 19%
- Small-cap 13%
- Micro-cap 3%
Market cap spread is actually one of the more interesting features: 36% mega, 26% big, 19% mid, 13% small, 3% micro. That 15% dedicated small‑cap value sleeve clearly muscles up your exposure to the smaller, scruffier end of town. This isn’t insane, but it does mean more sensitivity to economic cycles and junkier parts of the market when things get rough. In booms, small caps can fly; in recessions, they’re the first to call in sick. If the goal is smoother sailing, you’d tone down the small‑cap heroics. If you genuinely want the extra bump (and extra nausea), at least recognize that’s what you signed up for.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 3.31%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AA Apple Inc 2.87%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF
- Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 2.40%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF
- Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
23 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. 2.06%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
- iShares Asia 50 ETF
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 1.73%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 1.48%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 1.17%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF
- Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 1.17%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 1.17%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
TS Tesla Inc 0.91%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- Top 10 total 18.25%
Looking through the ETFs, the usual suspects are driving the bus: Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Tesla – basically the Magnificent Tech Bros plus friends. They’re “only” low‑single‑digit each, but collectively they’re a big swing factor in how this rides. Because the look‑through only covers top‑10 ETF holdings, overlap is actually understated: in real life, you’re probably even more tied to these names than the data admits. This isn’t automatically bad, but it means your “diversified” portfolio still bows to the mood of a handful of mega‑cap tech celebs. Just remember: when they sneeze, the whole portfolio catches a cold.
Factors
Factor-wise, you’ve built a bit of an investing nerd’s dream: heavy tilts to value, size, and low volatility. Factors are like the hidden “flavors” driving returns – value, size, momentum, quality, low vol, yield. You’re leaning hard into value and small size, plus a decent dollop of low volatility. That’s like saying, “I want cheap, smaller, somewhat calmer stuff.” Momentum is middling, quality isn’t even measured, and yield is basically a shrug. The catch: signal coverage is only 46.7%, so the analysis is incomplete. Also, factor returns can go out of fashion for painfully long stretches. If you’re going to lean this hard, you need the patience of a monk, not the attention span of a TikTok feed.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 50.00% 50.9% -
Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 25.00% 22.8% -
Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 15.00% 17.1% -
Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 10.00% 9.2%
Risk contribution is refreshingly proportional: the 50% total US ETF contributes ~51% of risk, the 25% international adds ~23%, and your 15% small‑cap value punches a bit above its weight at 17%. Risk contribution basically asks, “Who’s actually rocking the boat?” – not just who’s sitting where. The top three positions account for over 90% of total risk, which makes sense given this is a 4‑holding setup. Nothing here is absurd, but that small‑cap value slice is clearly a little louder than its 15% suggests. If volatility ever feels hotter than you expected, that’s the seat to look at trimming first, not the boring big broad core.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
Risk‑return efficiency here is actually annoyingly decent for an all‑equity‑heavy setup. You’re roughly on the efficient frontier for someone who’s okay taking stock‑style hits: strong returns for the level of volatility, factor tilts that are intentional rather than random chaos, and costs left in the basement. The Efficient Frontier is just the curve of “best possible trade‑offs between risk and reward;” you’re hovering close, but not magically beating physics. The weak spot is not efficiency – it’s honesty about risk. A –35% drawdown is the entry ticket for this ride. If that’s tolerable, fine. If not, the “solution” isn’t clever factor tweaks; it’s adding genuinely safer assets.
Dividends
- Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fund ETF Shares 1.90%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.10%
- Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares 2.70%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 3.10%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.88%
Total yield at 1.88% is basically “coffee money, not rent money.” The international and emerging allocations are doing the heavy lifting here with higher yields, while US total market politely offers pocket change. Dividends can be a nice emotional crutch – “look, I’m getting paid!” – but with a yield this low, this portfolio is unapologetically growth‑tilted. Nothing wrong with that, as long as you’re not secretly expecting a steady income stream. For serious income needs, this setup is like trying to live off Instagram likes. Think of these dividends as a tiny bonus, not a core feature or safety net.
Ongoing product costs
- Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fund ETF Shares 0.07%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares 0.08%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.05%
Costs are almost suspiciously good: total TER of 0.05% is “did you accidentally optimize?” territory. You’re paying basically nothing for broad global exposure and factor flavor. Expense ratio (TER) is just the annual fee the funds quietly skim; at 0.05%, it’s background noise, not a villain. Over decades, that gap versus high‑fee products becomes serious money left in your pocket. There’s really nothing to roast here beyond saying: don’t get clever and ruin this by bolting on overpriced, shiny “ideas.” You’ve already solved the cost problem. The game now is avoiding boredom‑driven tinkering that adds fees without adding real value.
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