Concentrated United States stock portfolio with strong growth history and balanced factor characteristics
Report created on May 13, 2026Risk profile
4/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
-
VO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO - US9229083632 45.00% -
QQ Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
QQQM - US46138G6492 30.00% -
AV Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 15.00% -
AV Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF
AVDV - US0250728021 10.00%
This portfolio is a focused, all‑equity mix of four ETFs, tilted strongly toward the United States. Two broad US funds dominate: an S&P 500 ETF at 45% and a NASDAQ 100 ETF at 30%, giving 75% in large US companies, many in technology and related industries. The remaining 25% sits in small‑cap value strategies, split between US and international markets. This structure keeps things fairly simple while still introducing some style and size variety through the small‑cap value pieces. Overall, it behaves like a growth‑oriented stock portfolio with a modest value twist rather than a multi‑asset blend, so its ups and downs are mainly driven by the stock market rather than bonds or cash.
Growth
From October 2020 to May 2026, a hypothetical $1,000 in this portfolio grew to about $2,466. That translates to a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 17.65%, where CAGR is the “average yearly speed” of growth smoothed over the period. This beats both the US market benchmark (15.77%) and the global market (13.65%) over the same timeframe. The worst peak‑to‑trough drop, or max drawdown, was about –25.6%, similar to broad markets. It took about 9 months to bottom and 14 months to recover, which is typical for an all‑equity mix. As always, this strong history doesn’t guarantee similar results in the future.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection uses 1,000 simulations based on historical behavior to estimate possible 15‑year outcomes. Monte Carlo is basically a “what if” engine: it shuffles return patterns many times to see a range of futures instead of a single forecast. The median outcome shows $1,000 growing to about $2,737, with a broad middle range from roughly $1,890 to $4,333. More extreme but still plausible paths span about $1,038 to $8,207. The average annual return across all simulations is 8.31%, noticeably below the recent historical CAGR, highlighting that long‑term expectations are more modest than the last few years’ performance. These numbers are estimates, not promises.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
The portfolio is 100% in stocks, with no bonds, cash substitutes, or alternative assets. Asset classes are simply the big buckets—like stocks, bonds, and real estate—that tend to behave differently in various conditions. Being fully in stocks usually means higher potential growth and higher volatility compared with a mix that includes bonds. Compared with many “balanced” blends that hold sizable bond allocations, this portfolio is more growth‑oriented and more exposed to equity market swings. The diversification here comes mainly from holding different kinds of stocks, not from combining very different asset classes. That’s important when thinking about how the portfolio might behave during sharp market downturns.
Sectors
- Technology 34%
- Consumer Discretionary 12%
- Financials 11%
- Telecommunications 10%
- Industrials 9%
- Health Care 6%
- Consumer Staples 6%
- Energy 6%
- Basic Materials 4%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 1%
Sector exposure is tilted toward technology at 34%, with consumer discretionary, financials, and telecommunications making up much of the rest. This is somewhat more tech‑heavy than many broad global benchmarks, which typically have a lower technology share. Tech‑loaded portfolios often benefit when innovation, digital platforms, and data‑driven businesses are in favor, but they can be more sensitive to interest rate changes and shifts in growth expectations. Smaller allocations to sectors like utilities and real estate mean there is less exposure to historically steadier, more defensive areas. Overall, the sector mix supports growth potential but can amplify cyclical ups and downs linked to earnings expectations and macroeconomic news.
Regions
- North America 90%
- Europe Developed 4%
- Japan 3%
- Australasia 1%
- Africa/Middle East 1%
Geographically, about 90% of the portfolio is in North America, with only modest slices in developed Europe, Japan, Australasia, and Africa/Middle East. Many global benchmarks spread more across regions, so this is a clear home‑country tilt. A US focus has worked very well over the last decade, reflected in strong historical results. However, it also means portfolio fortunes are closely tied to the US economy, policy, and currency. The international small‑cap value ETF does introduce some geographic diversification, especially in markets that behave differently from the US. Still, the core driver remains US large‑cap and growth‑tilted companies, so global risk is not evenly spread.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 37%
- Large-cap 26%
- Mid-cap 17%
- Small-cap 12%
- Micro-cap 7%
The market‑cap mix leans toward mega‑cap and large‑cap stocks, which together make up about 63% of the portfolio. Mid‑caps and small‑caps contribute 29%, with a further 7% in micro‑caps. Market capitalization refers to company size on the stock market; large companies often have more stable earnings and deeper markets, while smaller ones can be more volatile but sometimes offer stronger growth or value opportunities. The presence of dedicated small‑cap value ETFs ensures the portfolio isn’t purely a mega‑cap story, which can help diversify away from the very largest names. Still, big companies remain the main performance driver, reflecting the dominance of broad US indices in the mix.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 6.00%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AA Apple Inc 5.13%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 3.74%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 3.09%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 2.50%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 2.19%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 2.15%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
TS Tesla Inc 1.90%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 1.15%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
-
AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc 1.01%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Top 10 total 28.86%
Looking through the ETFs’ top holdings, the portfolio has notable exposure to a handful of very large US growth names. NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet (both share classes), Broadcom, Tesla, Micron, and AMD all appear via the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 funds. These top positions alone account for material percentages—NVIDIA at around 6% and Apple at about 5.1% of the total portfolio. Because the same companies show up in multiple ETFs, there is meaningful overlap, creating hidden concentration in a relatively small group of mega‑cap tech and tech‑adjacent firms. This overlap is likely understated since only top‑10 ETF holdings are captured, so true concentration may be somewhat higher.
Factors
Factor exposure is very close to neutral across all six measured factors: value, size, momentum, quality, low volatility, and yield. Factor exposure is like looking at the “personality traits” of the portfolio—whether it leans toward cheap stocks (value), smaller companies (size), recent winners (momentum), or steadier names (quality and low volatility). With readings clustered around 50%, this mix behaves similarly to the broad market on these dimensions rather than making strong bets on any single style. That neutrality can be helpful because it avoids relying on one specific factor to drive returns, which can be a source of disappointment when that style goes through a cold stretch.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
Weight: 45.00% 41.4% -
Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
Weight: 30.00% 35.2% -
Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 15.00% 15.8% -
Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 10.00% 7.6%
Risk contribution shows how much each ETF drives the portfolio’s overall ups and downs, which can differ from simple weight. Here, the S&P 500 ETF is 45% of assets but contributes about 41% of risk, while the NASDAQ 100 at 30% weight contributes over 35% of risk. Small‑cap value positions roughly match their weights in risk terms, with the international small‑cap value ETF contributing slightly less risk than its size would suggest. Overall, the top three holdings account for about 92% of total risk, highlighting that portfolio volatility is largely determined by those big US equity funds. In practice, day‑to‑day movements will mainly track broad and growth‑tilted US markets.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The efficient frontier analysis compares this portfolio’s risk/return mix with the best possible combinations using the same four ETFs. The current portfolio has a Sharpe ratio of 0.79, where Sharpe measures return per unit of risk after accounting for a 4% risk‑free rate. The maximum‑Sharpe mix reaches 1.08, and the minimum‑variance mix also has a higher Sharpe of 1.05. The current allocation sits about 1.8 percentage points below the efficient frontier at its risk level, meaning different weightings of the same ETFs could historically have delivered better risk‑adjusted returns. The key point: the ingredients are strong, and the chart suggests there is room to fine‑tune proportions without adding new funds.
Dividends
- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 2.70%
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.30%
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.40%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.10%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.08%
The portfolio’s overall dividend yield is about 1.08%, which is on the lower side for broad equity portfolios. Yield is simply the cash income from dividends as a percentage of the investment value. The international small‑cap value ETF has the highest yield at 2.70%, while the NASDAQ 100 ETF is much lower at 0.40%, reflecting the growth focus of many of its companies. This setup means most of the portfolio’s historical and expected return has come from price appreciation rather than income. For someone tracking total return, that can work well, but it also means cash flows from dividends alone would likely be modest compared with the portfolio’s value swings.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 0.36%
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.15%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.13%
Total ongoing fund costs, measured by Total Expense Ratio (TER), average about 0.13% per year. TER is the annual fee charged by each ETF as a percentage of the amount invested, quietly subtracted inside the fund. This blended cost is impressively low and compares favorably with many actively managed or more specialized strategies. The largest position, the S&P 500 ETF, is especially cheap at 0.03%, helping pull the overall cost down. Low fees mean more of any return stays in the portfolio over time, which compounds meaningfully over long horizons. From a cost perspective, this lineup provides an efficient foundation for capturing equity market performance.
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