The portfolio primarily consists of ETF shares with a heavy emphasis on the stock market, comprising 79% of the total investment. The largest allocation is to the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares at 56%, followed by the Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares at 24%. Bonds, represented by the Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury Index Fund ETF Shares and the Schwab U.S. TIPS ETF, account for 15%, while commodities, specifically gold, make up 5%. This composition indicates a balanced approach, leaning towards growth with moderate risk.
Historically, the portfolio has shown a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 10.70%, with a maximum drawdown of -27.41%. These figures suggest that while the portfolio has experienced significant volatility, it has also provided substantial growth over time. The days contributing to 90% of returns being limited to 32.0 days highlights the impact of short-term significant gains on overall performance.
Utilizing Monte Carlo simulations, which project future performance based on historical data, the portfolio's potential outcomes range widely. The median (50th percentile) simulation suggests a 135.6% return, with a 67th percentile at 218.9%. However, it's important to note that past performance is not indicative of future results, and the simulations' wide range underscores the inherent uncertainty in investing.
The asset class distribution, with a heavy tilt towards stocks, aligns with the portfolio's balanced risk profile but leans towards growth. Bonds and commodities like gold provide a hedge against market volatility and inflation, respectively. The minimal cash allocation suggests an aggressive investment stance, fully utilizing available capital for growth opportunities.
Sector allocation is broadly diversified, with technology (20%) and financial services (13%) leading. This sectoral spread mirrors the broader market trends, favoring growth sectors while maintaining exposure to stable, defensive sectors like healthcare and consumer defensive. Such a mix helps balance the portfolio's risk and return.
Geographic allocation shows a significant bias towards North America (58%) and developed European markets (13%), with modest exposure to Japan and other developed regions. The lack of emerging markets exposure may reduce potential volatility but also limits exposure to high-growth regions, which could enhance returns over the long term.
The portfolio's market capitalization exposure favors larger companies, with 34% in mega-cap and 25% in large-cap stocks. This bias towards larger, more established companies may reduce volatility but could also limit the potential for high growth rates compared to smaller, more agile companies.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
Considering the Efficient Frontier, the portfolio may benefit from optimization to achieve the best possible risk-return ratio. Adjusting allocations within the current asset mix could enhance returns for the same level of risk or reduce risk without sacrificing returns. This process requires careful analysis of each asset's historical performance and correlation.
The portfolio's dividend yield stands at 1.97%, contributed by both the stock and bond ETFs. This yield provides a steady income stream, which can be particularly beneficial in volatile or declining markets, offering a cushion and potential reinvestment opportunities.
With an overall Total Expense Ratio (TER) of 0.04%, the portfolio's costs are impressively low, supporting better long-term performance. Minimizing investment costs is crucial for maximizing net returns, especially in a low-yield environment.
Select a broker that fits your needs and watch for low fees to maximize your returns.
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