Single US momentum fund with strong tech tilt and historically high growth but concentrated risk
Report created on Jun 23, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
2/5
Positions
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SP Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
SPMO - US46138E3392 100.00%
This portfolio is as simple as it gets: one ETF holding makes up 100% of everything. That ETF tracks a momentum-based version of the S&P 500, meaning it focuses on stocks that have recently performed strongly rather than owning the whole index evenly. A single-fund structure is very easy to follow and maintain, and it keeps the moving parts to a minimum. The trade-off is that all decisions, good or bad, flow through one strategy and provider. There is no built‑in balance from other asset types or styles, so the portfolio lives or dies by how US stock momentum behaves over time.
Growth
Historically, $1,000 invested in this ETF in mid‑2016 would have grown to about $6,703, far ahead of both the US market and global market references. The portfolio’s CAGR, or Compound Annual Growth Rate, was 23.55%, versus 16.68% for the US market and 14.13% globally. CAGR is like your average speed on a long road trip. Max drawdown, the worst peak‑to‑trough fall, was about -31%, similar to broad markets during early 2020. Only 46 days made up 90% of returns, showing that performance was driven by a relatively small number of very strong days.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection uses past return and volatility patterns to simulate many possible 15‑year paths for $1,000 invested. It doesn’t predict the future; instead, it shakes the historical data like dice to see a range of plausible outcomes. The median scenario ends around $2,789, with a central band between roughly $1,870 and $4,312, and a wider band stretching from about $1,072 to $7,650. The average expected annual return across simulations is 8.22%. These ranges highlight uncertainty: even with a three‑in‑four chance of finishing positive, actual results could land much higher or lower than the middle estimate.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of the portfolio sits in stocks, with no allocation to bonds, cash, or alternative assets. Equities generally offer higher long‑term growth potential but come with larger swings along the way. With no other asset classes present, there’s no buffer from sources that typically move differently, like high‑quality bonds or cash. Compared to many diversified portfolios that mix several asset types, this is a pure growth‑oriented structure. It means overall behaviour is tightly tied to stock market cycles, including both strong bull runs and sharp corrections, without the dampening effect that more mixed holdings can provide.
Sectors
- Technology 55%
- Industrials 12%
- Telecommunications 8%
- Health Care 6%
- Financials 6%
- Consumer Staples 4%
- Energy 3%
- Basic Materials 1%
- Consumer Discretionary 1%
- Utilities 1%
- Real Estate 1%
Sector‑wise, the ETF is heavily tilted to technology at 55%, with the rest spread across areas like industrials, telecom, health care, financials, and smaller slices in others. This is very different from a more even sector mix in broad indices. Momentum strategies often end up concentrated in whichever sectors have led recent performance, and here that’s clearly tech-related businesses. Such concentration can boost returns when those sectors keep leading, but it can also increase sensitivity to sector‑specific shocks, regulation changes, or shifts in interest rates that particularly affect growth‑oriented companies.
Regions
- North America 100%
Geographically, the portfolio is 100% in North America, specifically US equities. That means every company, currency exposure, and regulatory environment is tied to one major market. There is no direct participation in other regions that might perform differently, such as Europe or emerging markets. When the US market does well, this focus can be beneficial; when it lags, there’s no offset from other economies. This alignment with the home market is common for US investors and makes the portfolio easy to understand, but it does mean global diversification is limited by design.
Market capitalization
- Large-cap 52%
- Mega-cap 38%
- Mid-cap 10%
By market capitalization, the ETF leans strongly toward larger companies: 38% in mega‑caps, 52% in large‑caps, and only 10% in mid‑caps. Market cap simply measures a company’s size on the stock market, similar to how revenue might rank businesses in the real world. Bigger companies often have more stable earnings and better access to capital, but they can also grow more slowly than smaller firms. This size mix means the portfolio tends to move with big, well‑known names rather than smaller, more volatile stocks, which may moderate some swings but concentrates influence in a relatively small group of giants.
True holdings
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MU Micron Technology Inc 10.99%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
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NV NVIDIA Corporation 8.20%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
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AV Broadcom Inc 6.53%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
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GO Alphabet Inc Class A 4.52%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
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JN Johnson & Johnson 4.07%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
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LR Lam Research Corp 4.02%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
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AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc 3.91%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
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GO Alphabet Inc Class C 3.61%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
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IN Intel Corporation 3.01%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
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XO Exxon Mobil Corp 2.80%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Top 10 total 51.65%
Looking through the ETF’s top holdings, several names stand out with sizeable weights, like Micron, NVIDIA, Broadcom, Alphabet shares, and others. The largest single underlying exposure is almost 11%, and the top 10 positions together represent over half of the fund’s disclosed holdings. Because the same companies can appear in multiple indices and funds, this level of concentration effectively means a handful of stocks drive a big portion of returns. Overlap may actually be higher than shown, since only top‑10 data is used, so hidden concentration beyond those leaders is likely understated in these statistics.
Factors
Factor exposure shows a strong tilt toward momentum at 75%, while value, quality, and low volatility sit around neutral and size and yield are on the low side. Factors are like investing “ingredients” that explain why certain groups of stocks behave similarly over time. A high momentum score means the ETF leans into stocks that have recently done well, which can enhance performance in persistent trends. The lower size and yield exposures indicate less focus on smaller companies or high dividend payers. In sharp market reversals, momentum strategies can experience sudden swings as market leadership changes.
Risk contribution
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Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
Weight: 100.00% 100.0%
Risk contribution measures how much each holding adds to total portfolio ups and downs, not just how big it is in dollars. Here, the single ETF naturally contributes 100% of the risk because it is the only position. Within that ETF, the top underlying stocks, such as Micron and NVIDIA, disproportionately affect volatility. A position can be a modest weight in the index yet still have an outsized impact if it’s very volatile, similar to a loud instrument dominating an orchestra. With a one‑fund setup, there is no risk spreading across different strategies or asset types.
Dividends
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.60%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.60%
The ETF’s dividend yield is around 0.60%, which is quite low compared with many broad equity indices. Yield is the cash income paid out each year as a percentage of the investment, separate from price changes. A lower yield is common in strategies focused on momentum and growth, where companies often reinvest profits back into the business rather than paying large dividends. In this portfolio, most of the historical return has come from price appreciation rather than income. For investors tracking cash flow, that means income is a minor component relative to potential capital gains.
Ongoing product costs
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.13%
The total expense ratio (TER) of 0.13% is notably low for an actively tilted strategy like momentum. TER represents the annual percentage fee charged by the fund, quietly deducted from returns, similar to a small service fee built into a bill. Lower costs leave more of the portfolio’s gross performance in the investor’s hands and compound positively over time. Compared with many factor or smart‑beta funds, this fee level is highly competitive and aligns with best practices for cost control. Given that there is only one ETF, cost transparency is also very straightforward here.
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