Leveraged S&P 500 cosplay with extra growth toppings and almost zero actual diversification
Report created on Apr 25, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
2/5
Positions
-
VO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO - US9229083632 75.00% -
SS ProShares Ultra S&P500
SSO - US74347R1077 10.00% -
SC Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
SCHG - US8085243009 7.50% -
SP Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
SPMO - US46138E3392 7.50%
This “portfolio” is basically the S&P 500 wearing different costumes and one of them has a Red Bull problem. Three funds are plain-vanilla large-cap US, and the fourth is a 2x leveraged clone of the same index. That’s not diversification, that’s copy‑pasting the same idea with more caffeine. On paper it looks like four holdings; in reality it’s one bet repeated four times with slight style tweaks. Structurally, this is a single-story house built entirely out of US large-cap growth, with a leveraged chimney. The result is a portfolio that lives or dies on one market, one style, and one index family pretending to be variety.
Growth
Historically, this thing absolutely ripped: turning $1,000 into $4,641 with a 18.91% CAGR is “numbers look fake” territory. It beat the US market by about 2 percentage points a year and steamrolled global stocks. But the max drawdown of -37.14% in a one‑month crash says the quiet part out loud: when things go wrong, they go wrong fast. CAGR — compound annual growth rate — is like average speed on a road trip; it doesn’t show the white‑knuckle moments. This portfolio has been paid handsomely for taking concentrated US equity risk, but that paycheck came stapled to serious stomach‑drop potential. Past data is yesterday’s weather, not tomorrow’s forecast.
Projection
The Monte Carlo simulation politely tells the party is probably over, or at least less wild. Simulations spit out many alternate futures using past volatility and return patterns; here they’re landing at a 7.89% annualized return with a very wide range. Median outcome of $2,735 after 15 years is way less heroic than the backtest. The “possible” range from about $1,028 to $7,108 basically says anything from barely beating cash to “nice win” is on the table. And that’s with a non-trivial chance of ending near flat in real terms after inflation. The leveraged and concentrated nature shows up as wide uncertainty more than guaranteed glory.
Asset classes
- Stocks 99%
- Other 1%
Asset class “diversification” here is 99% stocks and 1% “other,” which might as well be a rounding error labeled “vibes.” This is an all‑equity rocket with no ballast — no bonds, no real diversifiers, just pure exposure to market mood swings. Stocks dominate because everything is tied to the same engine: US large-cap equity beta. Asset classes are supposed to be different tools in the toolbox; this is four slightly different hammers. When equity markets are kind, this looks genius. When they aren’t, this setup offers nowhere to hide and no shock absorbers, just a front-row seat to volatility.
Sectors
- Technology 36%
- Financials 11%
- Telecommunications 11%
- Consumer Discretionary 10%
- Health Care 9%
- Industrials 9%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Energy 4%
- Utilities 2%
- Basic Materials 2%
- Real Estate 2%
Sector-wise, this is tech and tech-adjacent royalty with a supporting cast, not a balanced economy. Technology at 36%, plus communications and consumer discretionary heavily flavored by the same mega-cap names, means the portfolio is riding the same growth darlings from multiple angles. Financials, health care, and industrials exist but feel more like extras than co-stars. It’s less a cross‑section of the economy and more a fan club for mega‑cap winners. When growthy, innovation-heavy sectors lead, great. When they fall out of fashion or face regulation, earnings compression, or sentiment swings, this “diversification” starts to look suspiciously like a single crowded trade.
Regions
- North America 99%
Geographically, this is “America or bust” turned up to 11: 99% North America. That’s not a home bias; that’s a home lock‑in. Global equity markets exist, but this portfolio behaves as if non‑US companies are just fan fiction. The problem isn’t patriotism; it’s concentration in one economic system, one currency, and one policy regime. If US large caps stumble, there’s nothing here leaning on different growth engines, political cycles, or currencies. It’s the financial equivalent of eating only one food group: it might work for a while, but you’re entirely dependent on that one source staying perfect.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 45%
- Large-cap 35%
- Mid-cap 17%
- Small-cap 1%
Market cap exposure screams “only the big kids get to play”: 80% in mega and large caps, a token 17% mid-cap, and small caps at a lonely 1%. This is basically an endorsement of the current winners’ podium with almost zero interest in the rest of the field. Large companies are more stable than tiny ones, sure, but putting this much into the giants means the portfolio is chained to whatever the mega‑caps decide to do. If leadership ever rotates toward smaller names, this portfolio will clap politely from the sidelines instead of actually participating in the upside.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 7.83%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- ProShares Ultra S&P500
- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AA Apple Inc 6.20%
Part of fund(s):- ProShares Ultra S&P500
- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 4.61%
Part of fund(s):- ProShares Ultra S&P500
- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 3.43%
Part of fund(s):- ProShares Ultra S&P500
- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 3.19%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- ProShares Ultra S&P500
- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 3.11%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- ProShares Ultra S&P500
- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 2.55%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- ProShares Ultra S&P500
- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 2.11%
Part of fund(s):- ProShares Ultra S&P500
- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
TS Tesla Inc 1.80%
Part of fund(s):- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- ProShares Ultra S&P500
- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
BR Berkshire Hathaway Inc 1.29%
Part of fund(s):- ProShares Ultra S&P500
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Top 10 total 36.12%
The look‑through holdings read like the usual “Magnificent Everything” lineup, except you’re hitting them from several angles at once. NVIDIA at 7.83%, Apple at 6.20%, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet (twice), Meta, Tesla, Berkshire — it’s basically a hall of fame of crowded trades. Because they appear in multiple ETFs, you get hidden concentration: it looks like four funds, but underneath it’s the same handful of stocks echoing across them. And that’s only using ETF top‑10 holdings; the true overlap is probably worse. This isn’t a broad basket; it’s a fan compilation of the same ten companies remixed repeatedly.
Factors
Factor exposures are almost unnervingly vanilla: value, momentum, quality, yield, and low volatility all sit basically neutral. Size is mildly tilted away from smaller companies, which matches the mega‑cap obsession. Factors are like the secret ingredients that explain why a portfolio behaves the way it does — speed, sturdiness, trend‑chasing, etc. Here the hidden recipe is: “just be the market, but extra big and extra US.” No strong lean into cheap stocks, high quality, or safety; just a slightly oversized bet on big names and market beta. It’s accidentally simple: massive concentration in one style, but not much intentional factor personality beyond size.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
Weight: 75.00% 67.4% -
ProShares Ultra S&P500
Weight: 10.00% 17.9% -
Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
Weight: 7.50% 7.8% -
Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
Weight: 7.50% 7.0%
Risk contribution exposes who’s really driving the roller coaster. The plain S&P 500 ETF is 75% of the weight but 67% of the risk — surprisingly tame relative to size. The real chaos gremlin is the 2x leveraged ProShares piece: only 10% weight yet almost 18% of total risk, with a risk/weight ratio of 1.79. That’s a small slice doing big‑dog volatility. Top three positions account for 93% of all risk, so the rest of the portfolio is basically decorative. When things move, it’s really just those two core S&P exposures flinging the portfolio around, not some carefully balanced ensemble cast.
Redundant positions
-
High correlationVanguard S&P 500 ETFSchwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETFProShares Ultra S&P500
Correlation here is basically three versions of the same movie. The S&P 500 ETF, the large-cap growth ETF, and the leveraged S&P fund move almost identically. Correlation means how often things move together; high correlation turns a portfolio into a choir singing the same note. In a rising market that’s fine — everyone’s harmonizing up. In a crash, everything dives at once, and diversification politely leaves the chat. The illusion of choice between four funds disappears when they all dance to the same US large-cap rhythm, just with one of them spinning twice as fast.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the risk–return chart, this portfolio is literally leaving free money on the table with its current mix. It sits 2.2 percentage points below the efficient frontier, which is the curve showing the best return for each risk level using the same ingredients. The Sharpe ratio — return per unit of risk — is 0.73, while a better mix of the same funds could hit 0.98. Translation: even without adding a single new product, the current setup is statistically inefficient. It takes the same roller coaster and somehow chooses the seat with more nausea and less upside. That’s a skill, just not a flattering one.
Dividends
- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF 0.40%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.80%
- ProShares Ultra S&P500 0.70%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.10%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.98%
Dividends here are basically a rounding error in the story: total yield under 1%. The funds are unapologetically growth and momentum oriented, so cash distributions are more like pocket lint than a serious income stream. Relying on this portfolio for dividends would be like opening a lemonade stand in winter and expecting to quit your job. The real action is capital appreciation and price swings, not steady checks. Nothing wrong with that structurally, but it does mean the only “income” is whatever shares get sold — the portfolio itself isn’t exactly working overtime to send out regular cash.
Ongoing product costs
- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF 0.04%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
- ProShares Ultra S&P500 0.91%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.13%
Costs are almost suspiciously low, with a total expense ratio of 0.13%. The core S&P fund at 0.03% and Schwab growth at 0.04% are basically charity. The party crasher is the leveraged ETF at 0.91%, which is like sneaking a mini hedge fund fee into an otherwise thrifty lineup. You’ve managed to build a $-efficient way to take a highly inefficient risk profile — impressive in its own twisted way. Fees aren’t the villain here; the structure is. So yes, the good news is you’re not overpaying. The bad news is you’re paying very little to take very concentrated, very correlated risks.
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