Momentum chasing growth machine with a shiny nine month track record and a tech shaped blind spot
Report created on May 14, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
-
VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 40.00% -
VX Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
VXUS - US9219097683 20.00% -
FM MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF
FMTM 20.00% -
SG SMART Earnings Growth 30 ETF
SGRT 20.00%
This portfolio is basically two sensible index funds being held hostage by two hyperactive growth toys. Forty percent in a total US fund and 20% in total international screams “boring diversified adult,” but then 40% gets dumped into a focused US momentum fund and a 30‑stock earnings growth rocket. That’s like building a Volvo and then bolting on motorcycle wheels. The structure is simple, but the personality split is loud: half market, half casino. With only about nine months of data, it’s impossible to say this mix is genius or just lucky timing, but it’s clearly engineered to amplify whatever the market is doing, not smooth it out.
Growth
On paper, the last nine months look like the victory lap of a lifetime: $1,000 turning into $1,387, a 56.5% CAGR versus low‑20s for US and global markets. That’s not “smart tweak” outperformance; that’s “caught the right wave” territory. The max drawdown of about -11% is actually tame for a momentum‑heavy setup, but again, nine months of mostly friendly conditions is hardly a crash test. CAGR is like your average speed on a short downhill drive; it tells you nothing about what happens when the road ices over. Treat this track record as a lucky snapshot, not a proven pattern.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection tries to imagine 1,000 different futures using this very short and very flattering history. Median outcome: $1,000 drifts up to around $2,646 in 15 years, with a wide range from “barely grew” to “lottery win.” Simulations like this are basically weather forecasts for your money: directionally useful, hilariously overconfident when the input data is thin. Here, that 7.8% annualized projected return rests on a nine‑month run that looks nothing like a full cycle. The model is politely saying, “It might be fine, it might be ugly; we honestly don’t know yet.”
Asset classes
- Stocks 99%
- Other 1%
Asset‑class “diversification” here is simple: 99% stocks, 1% token “other.” This isn’t a portfolio; it’s an equity theme park. There’s no real ballast, no shock absorbers, just an almost pure bet that owning businesses will be rewarded and volatility will be tolerable. That can pay off amazingly over long periods, but it also means that when markets sneeze, this thing catches pneumonia. Given the short history, the recent drawdown looks manageable, but that’s like judging a roller coaster from the first gentle turn before the big drop you haven’t seen yet.
Sectors
- Technology 34%
- Industrials 17%
- Financials 10%
- Consumer Discretionary 8%
- Health Care 6%
- Basic Materials 6%
- Telecommunications 5%
- Consumer Staples 4%
- Energy 4%
- Real Estate 3%
- Utilities 2%
The sector profile is basically “Tech and Friends.” Technology at 34% is the main character, with Industrials at 17% as the sidekick, and everything else getting supporting‑cast status. This is what happens when broad index funds get spiked with momentum and growth: the hottest, most cyclical areas hog the spotlight. You’re not looking at a calm cross‑section of the economy; you’re looking at the parts investors have been obsessing over recently. If tech and growth sentiment flip, this sector stack will not quietly shrug — it will swing hard, and the nine‑month history hasn’t seen that mood swing yet.
Regions
- North America 82%
- Europe Developed 7%
- Japan 3%
- Asia Developed 3%
- Asia Emerging 3%
- Australasia 1%
- Africa/Middle East 1%
Geographically, this is a patriotic overachiever: 82% in North America with the rest sprinkled thinly across the rest of the planet. The developed world beyond North America gets single‑digit scraps, and emerging regions barely register. For something calling itself “total” and “international,” the combined effect is still “America first, second, and most of third.” This isn’t unusual, but it does mean the portfolio is very tied to one economic and political system. If the home region stumbles while other areas do better, this geographic lineup doesn’t really participate — it just watches from the sideline.
Market capitalization
- Mid-cap 32%
- Mega-cap 28%
- Large-cap 28%
- Small-cap 10%
- Micro-cap 1%
The market‑cap breakdown shows a bias toward the middle of the pack: 32% mid‑cap, with large and mega‑caps around 28% each and a bit of small and micro‑cap seasoning. That mid‑cap tilt is the portfolio’s way of saying, “I want growth, but not tiny‑company chaos.” Layer that onto momentum and earnings growth screens, and you’ve basically built a machine that chases agile, not‑too‑small winners. It can look great when conditions reward that lane, as the short history does, but mid‑caps can go from market darlings to forgotten pretty quickly when risk appetite fades.
True holdings
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MU Micron Technology Inc 2.59%
Part of fund(s):- SMART Earnings Growth 30 ETF
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 2.56%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
LI Lumentum Holdings Inc 2.50%
Part of fund(s):- SMART Earnings Growth 30 ETF
-
VR Vertiv Holdings Co 2.42%
Part of fund(s):- MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF
- SMART Earnings Growth 30 ETF
-
AA Apple Inc 2.37%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GL Corning Incorporated 2.18%
Part of fund(s):- SMART Earnings Growth 30 ETF
-
CI Ciena Corp 1.87%
Part of fund(s):- MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF
- SMART Earnings Growth 30 ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 1.75%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
WD Western Digital Corporation 1.43%
Part of fund(s):- SMART Earnings Growth 30 ETF
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 1.28%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- Top 10 total 20.94%
The look‑through is a who’s‑who of recent high‑beta darlings: Micron, NVIDIA, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Vertiv, and a whole lot of silicon and networking gear. Even with only top‑10 coverage, there’s a clear theme: semis, hardware, and growthy tech names starring in multiple ETFs. Overlap is likely understated, but it already screams concentration disguised as variety. Owning the same big names through broad funds plus “smart” momentum or growth wrappers doesn’t diversify; it just multiplies the same bets with extra packaging. When these names run, the portfolio flies. When they don’t, there’s nowhere to hide inside the tech echo chamber.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
Factor‑wise, this thing is exactly what it looks like: low value, extremely low size, and high momentum. In plain English: it shuns cheap stuff, ignores small fry, and chases whatever’s already running. Factor exposure is like the ingredient label on a cereal box; this one is sugar‑heavy momentum flakes with almost no bargain‑hunting fiber. The neutral yield and low‑vol readings don’t save it from that underlying personality. In hot markets, high momentum can feel genius. In reversals, it’s like driving with the accelerator taped down. With less than a year of data, the factor profile says more about intent than proven behavior — but the intent is clear.
Risk contribution
-
SMART Earnings Growth 30 ETF
Weight: 20.00% 33.7% -
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 40.00% 25.6% -
MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF
Weight: 20.00% 25.6% -
Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 20.00% 15.1%
Risk contribution exposes the real troublemakers. The SMART Earnings Growth 30 ETF sits at 20% weight but drives nearly 34% of total risk, clearly the loudest drunk at the party. The focused momentum ETF also throws in more volatility than its weight suggests. Meanwhile, the boring Vanguard total US fund is overweight in dollars but underweight in drama, contributing far less risk than its size. This is the classic “headline allocation looks balanced, actual risk is not” setup. A handful of concentrated, high‑octane holdings are effectively steering the whole ship, especially in any storm the nine‑month window hasn’t shown yet.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the efficient frontier chart, this portfolio actually behaves like it knows what it’s doing. The Sharpe ratio of 2.21, with the current mix sitting on or near the frontier, suggests that for the chosen ingredients, the risk/return trade‑off is impressively efficient. In plain terms, it’s extracting a lot of return per unit of volatility. The catch: that whole picture is built on less than a year of unusually strong results. Optimization here is like tuning a car’s suspension based on nine minutes of driving on a smooth highway — it looks optimized, but nobody’s hit a pothole yet.
Dividends
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.00%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 2.70%
- MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF 0.20%
- SMART Earnings Growth 30 ETF 0.10%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.00%
Dividend yield clocks in around 1%, which is basically “we pay something so the fact sheet doesn’t look empty.” The broad index funds drag the average up a bit, but the momentum and earnings growth funds are clearly not here to send you regular checks; they’re here to bet on price moves. Dividends can help smooth the ride in rougher markets, but this portfolio isn’t trying to be a cash‑flow machine. It’s a growth chaser that happens to collect a token income stream along the way — nice, but nowhere near enough to matter if capital values start yo‑yoing.
Ongoing product costs
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.02%
Costs are almost suspiciously low. With TERs of 0.03% and 0.05% for the Vanguard funds and an overall portfolio TER around 0.02%, the fee drag is basically a rounding error. That’s the one part of this setup that looks undeniably adult: you’re not paying champagne prices for tap water. Of course, rock‑bottom fees don’t make the bets any less racy — they just mean you’re getting all the volatility and factor tilts at wholesale prices. If this portfolio blows up in a bad market, it won’t be because of what you paid in fees.
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